Sundance wrote:
The sleep deprivation only lasts a few years if you're lucky. 

Where'd I go wrong?  30 and 27 and they still give me sleepless nights. 

Good on ya mate. Best time's when they're young. I could tell you a few war stories but I don't want to scare you so early in the game.

Nigel and Rob here's your problem in a nutshell. If I discuss the US market with say Kyler, Emma, Jay, Alex and a few others I get a detailed, justified and evidentially supported response. These guys know their markets intimately, have business models that make practical sense and admit the risks inherent in the markets they're exposed to. They…[Read more]

Nigel Kibel wrote:
The thing to keep in mind is that one of the main reasons that the economy is flat is due to the lack of finance.

There's enough finance around if you can meet requirements however there's no demand in the system to justify expanding. JPM has a bank full of money and no one to lend it to. Click the graphic for the…[Read more]

John-USA-CommercialRE wrote:
Freckle, I'm impressed that you personally are so intrigued by absolutely everything I post.  I truly feel you add a nice balance to any positive data that is posted related to the United States.  As any wise person would know, there is two sides to almost everything to include real estate and the economy.

Sure…[Read more]

Shopping malls are literally anchored by large retail chain stores. They can't survive without them in most cases. These large retailers are the key to attracting a host of peripheral small businesses to add diversification and interest to a mall complex.

What the big guys do and how they perform economically is a key aspect of any future…[Read more]

Building has gone back to contraction according to GS. More commercial activity on the back foot.

Despite the market knowing better, the so-called housing recovery has hit a speed-bump (or brick-wall). Goldman's housing swirlogram shows that the revisions from an exuberant few months into January 2013 have dragged the reality of the 'recovery'…[Read more]

I have no idea what's going to drive this CRE market you speak of. Business doesn't seem like it's in the mood to foster your growth message.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) shows 0% of their members planning to hire. One can only presume we need moar QE, moar deficits, and moar wealth effect.

Recovery? 0%!!

More self interested industry gobbledy gook backstopped by fudged government figures and bought economists. 

Quote:
panel of economists, which predicts gross domestic product (GDP) to rise by 2% this year, 3% in 2014 and 3.1% in 2015.

Lets try some actual data.  Note that if we use the old CPI deflator for GDP then growth is actually…[Read more]

Nigel Kibel wrote:
 fact that I deal in these markets does not make me wrong.

No it doesn't. The problem is you can't support your assertions which begs the question, "Are their assumptions correct and valid?"

Having a look, local MSM advertorials and the fact you live or have lived there do not inspire me with confidence when you can't even…[Read more]

Nigel Kibel wrote:
I am wondering if you have ever been to the United States. People still need somewhere to live, they still need to buy food. 

The fact is when you go to America they like to shop and they like to eat

If you spent any time in America especially in Texas or Florida you would see that things are really not that bad. I am not…[Read more]

Nigel Kibel wrote:
Try going to America and see how many people are in shopping Centre. However you do need to be selective. We are not suggesting that you should buy anything.

If you are looking at commercial then you need to look at assets that have A grade tenants. I remember in Australia back in 1990 people who brought warehouses and cheap…[Read more]

John USA wrote:
The slowly improving labor market and little competition from new shopping centers is allowing retail landlords to benefit. In February, the jobless rate dropped 7.7 percent, the lowest since December 2008, from 7.9 percent the previous month, according to the Labor Department.

It's bad enough that the govt manipulates the…[Read more]

So here's some real bully on employment that's really easy to understand. 

Of those considered to be working age who are either not counted as looking for work for benefit purposed and those officially listed as unemployed where added together we get approximately 101 million people.

That's right….. 101 million people!!!!          Whats that…[Read more]

The 400 or so dead malls are listed here with some history

http://deadmalls.com/index.html

The Death of the American Mall and the Rebirth of Public Space
By Robbie Moore
TUESDAY FEBRUARY 26, 2013

A recent article in the Financial Times suggests that 15% of America’s regional malls will fail in the next five years. “The mall’s 50-year reign as…[Read more]

Jpcashflow wrote:
I work for a large shipping line and volumes have decreased, in fact four other shipping lines are co loading with us just to keep a float.
These 4 shipping lines are considered the big Mammas of China and they are quiet, So we share our vessels which isnt a bad thing for us

BDI's taken a pasting over the last few years…[Read more]

Nigel Kibel wrote:
With finance becoming more readily available in the United States it a good sign that the economy is improving. 

Finance has always been available it just hasn't been as accessible due to higher qualifying criteria. The US govt has pushed the bar back down to subprime levels again so when the next GFC arrives we'll all get…[Read more]

If you could find some fundamentals to support the uplift then fine but they are sadly lacking so that leaves sentiment which is often fleeting. It's a market more suited to flippers and developers if you can get from wo to go in under 18 months. I'm wary of markets supported by sentiment, They tend to fall faster than they rise.

The stars appear…[Read more]

We are talking in generalisations because you haven't provided specifics.

7 – 8% gross yield is around break even and anything less you are on a hiding to nothing. If you can't find them you are either looking in the wrong places or your methodology needs tweaking or both. Over time you can develop a nose for good performers. It can take a little…[Read more]

jmsrachel wrote:

Freckle wrote:
Sold an aircraft engine to a guy over that way who builds horse stables. 2 years work ahead of him. Go figure.

How did you come to own an aircraft engine??

Used to have an aircraft. Bit a low flying around Manilya a few years back

Newman is probably the safest of all the WA mining towns simply because its the regional logistics and servicing hub. From a mining perspective activity will continue but construction and expansions will scale back but not to the same extent as regions like Port Hedland. Newman didn't see the same level of permanent accomodation being built as…[Read more]