John, you wrote:

and

and

and when I call the sales office the phone is answered by

yet you claim:

What **deleted**, is this not your job ?! Or don’t they pay you?

[angry2]F.[cowboy2]

PS – anybody interested in purchasing property in the region should stay away from dishonest salesmen. I’m not claiming the previous poster is one (save the lawsuit, <edit> my good friend), just making a general comment!

Ok, I’ll have a shot. I believe the next cyclical low for residential real estat in Melbourne & Sydney will be in 2012 and the next cyclical high late in 2019 or early 2020. These lows & highs should take into account inflation (ie any capital gain less than the rate of CPI inflation for a given period constitutes a real loss).

What do you reckon?
F.[cowboy2]

No, you must be thinking of the Holllywood blockbuster starring Bruce Willis…
Banking problems usually come after a boom, not at it’s peak. Referring to recent history, take Westpac post the previous house price boom. There is a very good reason why they have been far more cautious than most other lenders with the Low Doc market this time…
Cheers, F.[cowboy2]

2 properties, 0% gearing, 0% yield.

F.[cowboy2]

Hi Nazzy, I’ll be happy to make a prediction, but first you’ll need to define:
– What constitutes a ‘boom’? The more specific the better; XX years/quarters of sustained, continual growth not less than XX% in excess of CPI inflation for example.

– How do you measure the house price doubling bit? Are we talking from 2003 prices 2005 prices or from the bottom of the current cycle (which we are still far from IMNSHO)? Nominal or real (inflation adjusted) medians? If you mean a real doubling from 2003 prices, I will wager that I’ll not see this occur during my lifetime (ie another 30-70 years) for Sydney or Melbourne.

Plenty more house price cycle talk here.
Cheers, F.

During a recent bout of severe insomnia, I was fortunate enough to catch J. Fitzwhatsit’s infomercial on the teev at about 4.30am. This guy seems to be a bog-standard spruiker with as a bonus a team of mortgage brokers, advisers, etc working ‘for you’ (yeah right!).
I can’t take seriously anyone who spouts the old ‘property prices double every seven to ten years’ mantra without pointing out that this is not only historically inaccurate beyond (and even within, depending which 7-10 years you pick) the early 1970s, nor that past performance is not indicative of future performance, nor that there are in fact a multitude of reasons why property prices will not double between 2003 and 2013.
He fails to mention that the current low inflation / low interest rate situation is actually a catch 22; “Low inflation – Letting your loan linger longer” as the saying goes means that wages will rise much more slowly than in the past, therefore, house prices will be limited to doubling more slowly, and the repayments and rent will stay relatively higher as a proportion of income. Should wage inflation pick up speed, the Reserve Bank will be forced to hike interest rates… anyway, I’ll stop rambling. I’d suggest you save your money and attend Nkibel’s seminar instead. Not that I have much more faith in his understanding of economics, market forces or business cycles, but he seems like a really nice kind of guy…. actually, scratch that. Come on down to my beach shack for a weekend, bring a slab of beer (preferably J.Squire or Coopers) and your $290 will get you two days of one-on-one econo-chat, market discussion and a healthy dose of logic thrown in for free. (Gee, talk about positive cashflow – for me!)
Or for the best of all worlds, why not stash your cash in a high interest account (alternatively buy a couple of gold sovereigns ), and spend your spare time reading. There is a wealth of information available all for free on the internet – on sites such as this one, henrythornton, the economist, rba, abs, amp, macquarie uni, somersoft, etc, etc.

F.[cowboy2]

NB – If I’ve failed to write in a coherent or logical manner, let me know and I’ll go draft some new legislation for the government.

Okay then. But I think both Keynes and Mises would probably disagree, as would ING and Bankwest who have created billion dollar businesses in Australia in very short periods of time… by offering higher interest rates (than existing banks).
My opinion stands – low interest rates encourage debt, high interest rates encourage savings.
Regards, F.[cowboy2]

… I’m almost certain the same applies in Victoria? Experts please? Is an verbal offer considered by law a ‘verbal contract’? Otherwise surely there is no legal requirement for any exchange to take place…
[eh]?
F.[cowboy2]

I quite enjoy strange phonecalls. If you’re bored, try “Oh yeah, you sound hot”, and if that is not enough to send them packing, follow up with “so, what are you wearing?”…

There is a wealth of fun to be had. For example, this is a true story from last night, around 6.30pm:

[phone rings]
ME: Hello, M_______ speaking.
[pause, some distant clicking]
ME: Hello, M_______ speaking?
India: Hello, is this Mr Dave?
ME: Nope, this is M_______.
India: Oh, ok. Can I speak to Mr Dave please?
ME: Uh… Yes, this is Dave, how are you?
India: Hello Mr Dave, This is Rachel from Citibank calling, I would just like a few moments of your time..
ME: Look, this is a bad time…
India: Oh, sorry sir, can I call you back?
ME: Yes, that would be great, you see there’s a cow that’s escaped from a nearby farm and has got into my backyard and I need to go out there and kill it. Could you call back in five minutes?
India: Oh…. I’ll call you… on Monday then.
ME: Great… oh s**t, that bloody cow! RIGHT, COME HERE!…

T’will be interesting to see if ‘Rachel’ calls back tomorrow night. I’ll be prepared if she does.

Apologies to all and any Hindus.

F.[cowboy2]

Frustration understood. However, if you’d taken the time to read back through my posts before jumping in with an angry response, you’ll find that I’m always prepared to back my views with logic/reasoning/data, enjoy being challenged and, when appropriate, put in my place.

I’ll happily admit to being little more than a lucky mug with investments over the last 5 years or so, having no formal economics training, not being a millionaire, working 9to5, living a modest (frugal even?) lifestyle and never having written a book. I am about average in every way – IQ, education, income, looks, height, len… [blink]… ahem. [blush2]

For your specific pleasure, in the first hour of trade today:

GDR: -2.27%
OSH: -3.34%
ROC: -2.44%

The only positive so far is gold up half a percent in AUD after the RBA left rates at 5.5%.

FWIW, I’m not advocating the ASX as a guaranteed or even likely place to make money in the near term. Earlier in this thread I wrote:

Given movements in the XAO have clearly outlined a ‘head & shoulders’ event over the last fortnight (Check a 10 day chart if you have access), as confirmed by this mornings heavy falls, I would, in fact urge caution.

Sorry we’ve got off on the wrong foot blogs. All the best.

F.[cowboy2]