Oh dear. It can be embarrassing to see old threads rise again. I feel like I'm in Sean of the Dead (great movie btw, very, very funny).I'd like to retract some of my cycle theory cockiness. I'm far less convinced today that the market is as cyclical as I'd thought. I still think we're on track for a 'cyclical low' of ~$300k 2005 dollars in 2012…[Read more]

Dobby wrote:
the property prices increase (will take 7-10 to double!).<snip>the properties are appreciating the average 8-10% p.a. <snip>something to consider as a "thinking outside the square" strategy.

Sigh. Oh dear.

foundation wrote:
And even if they turn out not to be entirely deluding themselves, they might simply be abusing mathematics.…[Read more]

From tip 4:

Quote:
the greatest risk is not about where you purchase, or who rents it or any of that stuff, its the risk that your property will only show small returns. In essence, unless you make a very uninformed decision about your IP purchase, the WORST CASE SCENARIO is that whenever you sell, you will only make a small profit. What I am…[Read more]

Y'know what strikes me as a little odd? An hour before this post you wrote:

vyaw2003 wrote:
I have been sitting on a deal for a few years now in Country Victoria. Area seems fine just no offers until now Finally got an offer to sell.I want 95advertised it at 75finally got an offer at 55I told the real estate agent that she is wasting his…[Read more]

"Where  you see the worst case scenario many see the best."Correction: I see a range of potential outcomes, but limit my maximum expectation ("the best") to one that is possible. If other people choose to believe in a scenario that is impossible, that's their choice. I'd call this kind of thinking delusion, but if you're happy to see it as…[Read more]

"refinance every 2 years as the properties double."You seem to have missed one of BJ's stated goals: "I want to […] decrease my debt". You're suggesting he capitalises his costs, which is a high-risk strategy guaranteed to increase his debt?

You've defined your problem as:* I am a slave to my mortgageYou have defined your goals as:* Want to work less * Want to decrease my debtIf you sold both investment properties and put the remaining capital into your PPOR, you’d reduce your debt from $581,000 to $131,000. That satisfies the second goal.The first goal is a little more difficult, b…[Read more]

And even if they turn out not to be entirely deluding themselves, they might simply be abusing mathematics. For example, by assuming house price growth is exponential* (based on a poorly fitted historical function), and entirely disconnected from real drivers, such as wage growth…* An example of this would be parroting "house prices double every…[Read more]

devo76 wrote:
May as well shoot myself now while i can still afford the bullet.Sorry to sound like a smart ass but wow.According to your calculations life as we know it is about to end.Scary stuff.

What a strange and immature response. If anything I've written is demonstrably wrong, feel free to refute it. You have many tools available to you;…[Read more]

Why didn't your list include patrick.net, thehousingbubbleblog.com housingpanic or any of the other sites that are talking about the actual downturn that is actually underway that has seen YOY prices averaged across the US fall for the first time ever?The following site lists just about all US real estate blogs (not just the ones that scam or…[Read more]

Gidday Bonnie,I was just hoping you might be back to give us an update on the sale of your houses. How's it going? Have they sold? Did you get more/less than you expected?In anticipation,F. [cowboy2]

brownie74 wrote:
Nah, she knows nothing about the details.How would I find out information such as how often the fund has been tapped recently, etc. Is that publicly available?

Ask for a copy of the 'body corporate certificate' I think it's called here in Vic. This should detail any pending legal action, upcoming works etcetera. Ask for a copy…[Read more]

Well why ask here? If your solicitor says it's okay, I'd assume that not only is he more familiar with statistics on sinking funds for multi-unit properties than myself, but that he also has some fairly intimate knowledge of the current state of the property and all scheduled or expected repairs over the next say, 5 years. I expect he also has…[Read more]

You're welcome!It should be pretty clear that it wouldn't take much in a 30 unit property to clear out a $77,000 fund.So: This big.

This big.

PRODEV wrote:
Equity Harvesting™

Please tell me you didn't actually trademark that?It's been used in investment circles for at least a few years, and is still used in the farming industry…

Sounds screwy.I can only assume your friend actually bought a purchase option or simply signed an OTP purchase contract with $25k deposit.Supposing a developer is building an apartment building where most apartments are to be valued at $250k. They'll try to sell as many units off-the-plan as they can, typically asking 10% deposit. Speculators who…[Read more]

Quote:
San Antonio's formerly high-flying new housing market has returned to earth. First-quarter housing starts dropped 25.5 percent, in stark contrast to the first quarter of 2006 when builders worked at an exuberant pace. Now the realities of last year's real estate frenzy are casting a shadow over the market, as…[Read more]

"4. Why SA to the Valley is so special"Is this San Antonio? Are you sure it's really special and not just lagging the coast?Last I heard housing starts had fallen 25% over the first quarter and inventory levels had risen almost 45% over the last 12 months and that most of those buying were out-of-state speculators. Are these accurate or are the…[Read more]

wriggles wrote:
We could live off my wifes wage easily and be able to bank $1000 (my wage) a week in savings

Sounds like a fairly sound strategy (Note: I know nothing! Talk to a professional)! Bankwest will turn that into $54,000 in a year at minimum risk (disclaimer ditto).Weight that against the possibility of the bigger house appreciating…[Read more]