Forum Replies Created
- Originally posted by foundation:Originally posted by Fern:Quote:Originally posted by Nobleone:
My take on it is Peak Oil is it’s not a doomsday theory, its just a peak in the oil supply graph. Oil will not run out ever, there will always be some to find at a price.
…and that change in price should be enough to make alternatives cost effective. This is why Peak Oil would / will (?) be a Good Thing ™.
Cheers, F.[cowboy2]Cost effective against oil doesn’t necessarily mean affordable for the average Joe, and I suppose it depends how quickly change is needed.
If tomorrow they find we will never again increase oil production, then we are in deep sh#!.
If we get 20 years to move on it and have things in place it should be easier.Its becoming more accepted in the mainstream that at some point the peak will be reached. Its what to do about it, and when it will happen thats being debated.
Saw this article today, very pertinent
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/5EF86883-8CDB-49B5-9A07-5759205A9DBE.htmUS report acknowledges peak-oil threat
By Adam Porter in Perpignan, FranceWednesday 09 March 2005, 18:23 Makka Time, 15:23 GMT
It has long been denied that the US government bases any policy around the idea that global oil production may be in terminal decline.
But a new US government-sponsored report, obtained by Aljazeera.net, does exactly that.
Authored by Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling and entitled the Peaking of World Oil production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management, the report is an assessment requested by the US Department of Energy (DoE), National Energy Technology Laboratory.
“Uncertain timing
“World oil peaking is going to happen,” the report says. Only the “timing is uncertain”.
The effects of any oil peak are similarly not ignored. Specifically, the impact on the economy of the United States. “The development of the US economy and lifestyle has been fundamentally shaped by the availability of abundant, low-cost oil. Oil scarcity and several-fold oil price increases due to world oil production peaking could have dramatic impacts … the economic loss to the United States could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale,” the report says.
A US expert panel says markets
cannot solve peak-oil problemsThe authors of the report also dismiss the power of the markets to solve any oil peak. They call for the intervention of governments. But also they rather worryingly point to a need to exclude public debate and environmental concerns from the process. They say this is needed to speed up decision-making.
“Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic. But the process will not be easy. Expediency may require major changes to … lengthy environmental reviews and lengthy public involvement.”
Hirsch notes, despite arguments from the major oil companies and producer nations, that new finds of oil are not replacing oil consumed each year. Despite the advances in technology reserves are becoming increasingly difficult to replace.”
” The report highlights a series of ways to minimise any impacts. From increased fuel efficiency to technological help in stopping the practice of “oil-left-behind” or non-extractable oil and various forms of new liquid fuels, liquefied coal and gas-to-liquids.
But in its conclusion the report makes troubling reading, noting that “the world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary”.
This report is the clearest signal yet that the U.S government is taking the subject of “peak oil” seriously. Yet it remains to be seen what actions can be taken to stop this potentially “revolutionary” change.”
Originally posted by Nobleone:Hi all,
I was a ‘peak oil’ follower until I recently read this article…
http://www.rense.com/general63/staline.htm
… which gives some very reasonable debate material re the abiotic oil argument.
It’s a long read, but I always say that if you don’t read all the facts/theories/ideas etc you really cannot make an informed decision nor make a valid argument…
Any feedback from forumites who read the ‘complete’ article would be interesting.
Cheers, Nobleone. [biggrin]
“Making mistakes is just another another tool for learning.”
Hi Nobleone,
I’ve followed the theories, and I’ve read the whole article. It seems a fight of personalities to some extent.If you go to the basics, abiotic oil may or may not exist, maybe it seeps slowly out of rock formations and pools. But it is irrelevant if this process takes millions of years. We’ve just about used half of all these massive deposits collected over millions of years in 150 years or so. I can’t see the rock pumping out the 80 million barrels + we use every day continuously.
My take on it is Peak Oil is it’s not a doomsday theory, its just a peak in the oil supply graph. Oil will not run out ever, there will always be some to find at a price. Some parts of the third world use little and will be less affected, the rich will just pay what is costs. The most affected will be the middle classes who rely on it and will need to cut back.
The big affect will be economic growth, can growth be maintained with a slowly diminishing and expensive supply of oil?
Has anyone seen the Doco “The End of Suburbia”.
You can get it on DVD, probably have to Google it, as its not on wide release. I was handed it by someone who said i just had to see it.Its about Oil Depletion and goes into the real estate logistics so to speak. Really interesting stuff. In fact an eye opener. Its US/Canadian based, but quite relative to any country.
The gist is oil is going up in price (a lot) and the affect on suburbia and how people will live.
Maybe those easily heated, no car needed apartments will end up being good investments one day.
Highly recommended if you can find it.
Originally posted by wayneL:Originally posted by Fern:What I’m getting at is there will be a hell of a lot less energy to go around, and at a very high cost COMPARED to oil.
Fern, this is exactly the point the Pollyanna’s are missing.
Even if there were some alternative, viable and cheap energy source. The cost and upheaval to change over, is well beyond peoples ability to comprehend. The lag time alone would cause financial armageddon in the worlds oil dependant economies.
Far easier to put the head in the sand satirize the “doomsayers”[wacko]…not that anyone on this forum is like that[evil4]
Hi Wayne,
Good to see somebody gets it!!
Matt Savinar, in his new book explains it well, this chapter http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/PageThree.html where he explains why new forms of energy are not going to kick in seamlessly.Solar panels are made from a high percentage of oil. Yes they work, but as oil goes up in price, the panels will also go up in price, they are energy intensive. The cheapest time to get solar is NOW even though it is not economically viable yet, it’ll be going up in price with the oil.
In five years time, you may realise you have made a valuable investment.There are big drawbacks in being off the grid. Storage batteries are a big cost and don’t last long. They are also energy intensive and hence their cost will skyrocket as the oil price rises.
If you can get solar on the grid and cut back on energy use, you may make a small income.Energy IMHO is the real investment of the future.
But, not everybody will be able to afford it by the time the crisis hits home.Cheers
Hi Mortgage Advisor,
We don’t own the machines, we do filling & maintenance on contract. We own the trucks[biggrin]The reason we only do 340 now is we needed a life[laughing]. 800 was full on.
My partner & I have a company that fills & maintains drink vending machines on contract.
We currently have 340 machines, but have had up to 800 in the past.Its all about location. Our top placed machines do over 20,000 units a year, but its a cut-throat business when it comes to placements. Anything selling under 2400 units a year is unworthy. Theres also a high percentage of vandalism with some sites.
We’ve been doing this for six years, so if anyone needs advice, don’t hesitate.
Cheers.
Originally posted by Marc1:So, you are comparing a full-scale coal generation plant or why not a nuclear one, with a midget hobby solar panel on the top of some greenie’s roof are you?
That is a serious comparison is it?Whats your point. I never mentioned coal or nuclear. And yes all sources of energy can be compared. But I don’t think you are quite ready for it[biggrin]
You must tell all the businessman who are investing hundreds of millions in wind farming, in convection towers, solar equipment and wave machines to drop everything and keep connected to the grid because it is so much cheaper.I’m an investor in wind power. Wind can be viable (if you get enough average wind speed).
Your point is??? You seem to have a bee in your bonnet[biggrin][biggrin]
Really!!
An installed solar photovoltaic system will cost you three times the kw/hr cost of on-the-grid electricity over its lifetime of 30 years.
Solar hot water pays for itself in under 10 years.
You wanna pay three time more per kwh? You think thats viable?
Talk about put words in my mouth[blink]
I didn’t say we shouldn’t use alternative energies. But they are not a replacement for oil. Oil has an EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) of 50:1. I love to see your figures on solar, I believe it is 1:2. What I’m getting at is there will be a hell of a lot less energy to go around, and at a very high cost COMPARED to oil.
Cheers
More reading at http://www.holon.se/folke/worries/oildepl/crunch.shtml
Come on guys, we have to think outside the square here!!!!!!!!!!!
How much energy does it take to build a solar energy system[blink], or any system or alternative fuel, what does it cost, and how much energy will it return over its lifetime.
I think you’ll find that at this point Solar is only viable for hot water heating.Its all very well to say, we can build this or that, but you need energy (at this stage probably oil) to build these alternatives, and for them to be sustainable, they need to be able to provide enough energy to replace themselves. Entropy rules!!!!
This is a graph showing the last crashes in NZ from the RBNZ (scroll down to page 2) for the NZ punters It shows nominal & real prices which illustrates the affects of inflation on value.
Just need an Aussie one now!!
This is a graph showing the last crashes in NZ from the RBNZ (scroll down to page 2) for the NZ punters It shows nominal & real prices which illustrates the affects of inflation on value.
Just need an Aussie one now!!
Hi Ausprop,
Housing bubbles have severe economic effects.
The magnitude of the price fall is related to the run-up during the boom. This one has been huge, around 100% in 6 years. The average housing bust takes over four years to recover from and by the end of that four years a countries GDP is down by an average of 8%. That doesn’t look good for economic growth.A lot more people own homes than own shares, and housing accounts for more than 50% of all household wealth. You can’t knock the property market around and expect things to be picking up in 12 months, 24 months or even 36 months. Housing will now underperform other asset classes for at least five years IMHO.
You are right on the population, and with less GDP to go around, it just means harder times for everybody.
If inflation rises because of the oil price, and the RBA raises cash rates again, you could be looking at a 30% drop in house prices (see IMF latest “world economic outlook”). Cross fingers, for everybodies sake XX
I think it makes very plain sense.
And I didn’t say anything about 12 months.
Housing inflation has been way out of balance with what has been happenning elsewhere in the economy, a correction goes without saying.
How long it will take is a completely different matter.If its all so rosy, why is the Fed rate still at 1%. Thats not exactly normal for a country showing strong economic growth.
Theres a lot more going on than appears on the surface.Just my mumblings
The cover of the latest National Geographic
“The End of Cheap Oil”http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/
“It’s inevitable. But just how soon will the vital fuel become so scarce and expensive that we’re forced to make hard choices about how we live? “
I’d say in about 18 months, the real crunch will start to be felt!!!
Originally posted by AusProp:my problem is that people have been saing this for a few years now. the choice is either to go for it or sit back and do nothing. A few years ago I sold property to wait for the supposed plum opportunities that were about to present themselves – talk about regret! Timing the market is a mugs game.
I think you can play the tops, but you have to do your own research and know your area backwards. I’ve done really well out of this one, and I’m cashed up, and have a couple of freehold properties to see me through. But then again this is my third cycle and you get a feel for it. Problem is, I don’t see much growth if any for a verrrrry long time, so what to do in the meantime is always a big one. Any thoughts?
Can’t say I aspire to designer clothes, or flashy cars. I drive a 1996 camry S/W[biggrin] even though I could buy a new car. Goes good so why worry. Cars are liabilities in my eyes.
I’m keeping a very close eye on the US.
Thats where the financial storm is brewing.
“Get out of debt” before the storm hits, is a very good mantra.Well said ResidentialWealth.
My head has been spinning at the amount of debt friends have clocked up over the last few years.They say things like, “House prices never go down” – Huh – I can remember the last big one, and it wasn’t pretty for a lot of people, especially the high flyers.
I can remember putting money on deposit and earning 25%pa. I hate to think what borrowers (in tight positions) were paying.Meant to say too, this won’t address the larger types of transport, airlines, intl shipping etc etc. Can’t see them running on hydrogen or electricity.
Back to the sailing ship maybe[biggrin]
