Forum Replies Created
- Peak Debt wrote:The shortage is an invention of the banks and real estate vested interests
If you look at the data between the 2000 and 2006 census, the number of houses increased by a greater percentage than the number of people.
this is exactly my point. everything is propaganda to keep the economy from going into recession but unfortunatly the bubble has to pop some time and australia wont be any different to the rest of the world. If it doesnt pop not it will in 1 year but even worse if not in 1 year then 2 years but even worse that 1 year and so on and so on. it has to pop because its unrealistic and based on false numbers.
hey guys.
just wondering how do you find out the costs associated with building. i can find places and see how much i can sell for but its the cost of building that im having trouble figuring out.
hey.
yes north queensland or all of queensland for that matter is suffering but sydney and melbourne have started to show some signs of similar scenarios. rental vacancies have started to increase, rental returns have been neautral or %2 at most, auction clearences are at %50 and prices have not increased for the last few months and in some areas of sydney have decreased but developers are still building alot of properties which will come into the market this year or next year so the probelm is only going to get worse for vacancies and prices. in the inner suburbs of sydney houses are averaging 1.4mil + for an old house, 2 bed apartments are at 600k + for an old apartment. now you tell me who can afford these payments on 1.4 mil is about $2300 a week and on the apartments $1100 and these are old places. The average income in inner sydney is $90000 before tax so one person cant buy a house or an apartment on their own or will have to rely on rental payments but even then wont be able to eat or buy any clothes because everything goes towards mortgage
and if tenant leaves and no rental income comes through they are stuffed. SO 2 people have to buy property together but as an investor this does not work so it has to be couples with the intention of living in property. so lets assume both earn $90000 before tax then thats $180000 and after tax around $130000 so if they buy a house together in inner sydney $115000 will go towrds mortgage and they will be left with $15000 for everything else. now if they buy an apartment with $50 body corporate they will be left with around $65000 for everything else but this scenario is more likely for a young couple but what happens when they grow a family. overall the scenario is grim for anyone wanting a property in sydney un less you go out to outer suburbs but then you lose on lifestyle.Hey freenterprise. from my understanding rental vacancies has increased, rents have only increased at %1-2 nationally and not the %5-8 that the so called real estate gurus where predicting at the beggining of the year, auction clearences at at %50 in sydney and %55 in melbourne and this is the best cities to buy in apparently. Brisbane, perth are at %30 clearence. Housing prices have either only increased slightly in sydney and melbourne and have decreased in perth brisbane and like you mentioned housing starts have increased dramatically. I personally beleive that the majority of people purchasing properties where investors but since they have seen the property market being flooded with new properties, prices staqbilising or decreasing and most importantly rental vacancies increasing and rents stabilinsing they have decided its time to pull out and wait so now not many people are buying because first time buyers can not afford to buy at these prices. This is why there is an oversupply at the moment because alot of new properties are not being sold and investors are trying to pull out. well at least thats my view
hey guys im sort of new to mortgage brokering but wouldnt a line of credit, split between a fixed rate for the current loan and a variable rate for the new property be more suitable. that way they can save money on having seperate loans, like fees and other stuff. IM not to sure about the tax implications in this but id assume you could use all the fees and interest paid associated with this loan to offset agaisnt any income on the investment. but like i said i am new to mortage brokering so please be gentle with me. hahahaha.
harb wrote:cuteyoungchic wrote:I live in a city South of Perth. House prices have been falling here for approximately 2 1/2 years. There are loads of houses are on the market, to sell your house, you need to drop the price by tens of thousands.. Rents on existing properties haven't risen in a year or two. The main local paper has an abundance of houses for rent.Must be a low demand area, most rents in the metro areas have gone up over the past year.
Quote:http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/mp/7946270/finding-space-for-556-000-perth-residents/Finding space for 556,000 Perth residents
MARISSA LAGUE, The West Australian September 15, 2010, 6:55 amIf forecasts are right, Perth will be home to 556,000 more people in the next 20 years and finding space for an extra 328,000 homes has put the spotlight on urban infill housing targets for the metropolitan area.
thats just hilarious. This is classic propaganda and your using it as an example of an undersupply. Look at the rpdata for perth and u will see an oversupply of housing, prices dropping and rent vacancies increasing but yet u go with a yahoo article design to fool the blind.
hey freeenterprise can you please explain why there is new unsold properties in sydney, perth, brisbane, gold coast. if its like you say that we have an undersupply of property by %1 then why do we have these unsold brand new apartments and houses. im baffled by this because if there is an undersupply then we would not have one vacant property. Why have rents only increased by %1 the last year when all the real estate people where saying %3 to %7 increase over the year. really come on guys wake up to yourselves. its media propaganda paid for by the real estate people and banks so they can keep making money. out of the 1000's of immigrants that do come into australia i bet that not even half will ever buy property or if they do it will be when they are married and have a partner to help out with payments, Kids are staying longer at home andelderly are downgrading or moving into retirment homes so what do you think happens when we have this scenario. Just look at cuteyoungchic comments and you will see whats going on in the real world and not the fantasy that the media pump out for you.
well if there is an undersupply then wouldnt the rental market be the first to snapped up because its a much cheaper option than a mortgage. I mean really how many people do you see living on the streets. I see a handful in sydney cbd but thats it so we know people have housing. Then how much pop growth we see for next few years and thats including immigration, births, deaths. Even though these are hard to determine they are very influentual in determining pop growth. Now we know that pop is ageing, immigration is going to be cut back, birth rates have jumped the last few years and in most states alot of new housing came onto the market this year and more will be coming next year that has oversupplied the market on the current pop growth so one would think an oversupply would be very easy to see occuring if not all ready here.
I read an article today on the property investor which states that the current rental vacancy rates are at %4.1 and not the %2 stated by the housing department because they only count any new properties coming into the rental market and not existing vacancies. This to me is showing me signs of an oversupply of housing.
hahaha yes your right. earning $42000 a year after tax with no headaches in a time of uncertainty and possibly, thats a high possibility, of your asset depreciating in value and only returning $21000 in rent after tax, you also pay tax on your rent, is a very silly idea. Obviuoulsy your one of those people who only started looking at poroperties in the last 10 years and have this idea that property always goes up and u never lose. hahahah maybe yu should go to south east quuensland, western australia, or outer sydney and ask the people there what they think about my idea. No im not a financial planner unfortunatly id love to be but i have to be patient and with time i will get there. <moderator: delete abuse>. China is pulling back on its housing boom, its telling its banks to reign its its lending because they have a huge huge huge housing bubble and they know its going to pop soon so if that happens what do you think is going to happen to our mining jobs. Australia will and can not survive on its own that the problem. we depend on china, america, europe and if they go then we go even depper. but what do i know im just a fool.
hey banker.
well for someone to not worry in these times would be very fullish of them. if we where having a standard recession then i would agree with ur cycle theory but the circumstances in this recession are very different. The problem began with easy money and thus the sub prime problems which created high debt in the banking system which then triggered the gfc and now the debt is still there for the banks but the governments have also accumulated umprecidented amounts of debt to the point where some people have questioned the viability of countries like america, japan england, spain, and the rest of europe. They say it will take over 2-3 generations with high taxes to be able to pay this debt and now to top it off household debt in australia is also at an all time high so we have to ask ourselves will there be a big kahuna in the near future.
just going back to the main topic. i beleive sydney and melbourne properties will be able to hold up on prices for the medium to long term due to high demand for inner city living and the divercification of jobs but outer suburbs will take and are all ready taking a hit. in the short term sydney and melbourne will also take a hit because of the price to earning ratio of property prices. Not many people can afford to pay a 1+ million mortgage so its only logical prices will come down or stagnate for a long time until peoples earnings increase in line with affordability. just last week the auction clearences dropped to %50 in sydney and %55 in melbourne so its all ready began and this is supposed to be the busiest time of the year ( spring). im just getting into the mortgage brokering business so for myself i want people to keep purchasing but if i was a finacial planner i would be telling people to sell there properties now, deposit there money into either an online saving interest accoutn ( %6) or a term deposit (%7) for the next few years. the income on there $1 million property will fetch them $700 a week then deduct expenses its prob around $600 a week but in a savings account it will earn them $1100 a week with no expenses. but this is another topic all together. hey banker who do u actually work for?
hey unnmester
yeah i agree. i think most people in developed countries will suffer the most because we are so used to a good and easy life. well lets hope it doesnt collapse completly.
Just to let you know. In america, spain, ireland etc etc they too where saying they had an undersupply of dwellings from 2003 until 2007. now they have a huge oversupply. hahaha. did 20mil people just dissapear into thin air in amercia and over 2 mil in spain and etc etc etc. because thats the number of dwellings vacant in those countris.
well you say its a generalisation but i work in the construction industry in sydney and i can tell you there are a high number of new properties unsold on the market. Killara is just one place that i know had a significant number of develepments come into the market this year and last year and half are still to be sold. eastern suburbs of sydney have had the same problem with a high number of new dwellings come into the market and they arent able to sell them. south east queensland is flooded with unsold properties and even old properties cant be sold. now you answer me this, if the was such a thing as an undersupply then wouldnt these properties be snapped up off the plan and wouldnt properties on sale be snapped up first days. like this article says. when real estate people say an undersupply due to the high number of immigration they never tell you how they calculate the numbers. they say 200000 people migrated to australia but they dont tell you that those 200000 consist of kids, grandparents, parents, partners. all these people with the exception of the kids will only be buying one property for them selves and not one each, also the kids will only be buying properties after many many years into the future which by then the population of australia might actually be decreasing due to the aging population of australia by where the majority of the baby boomers will be going into retirment homes of passing away. You say we shouldnt beleive what everyone tells us but thats exactly what your doing. read all the numbers for your self and you will see that there is actually an oversupply in australia and it will only get worse with the new immigration policies coming into place. in regards to rental market, well i live in coogee and there is ussually no available properties for rent because they quickly get snapped up but just driving around now and you will see a high number of advertisments for rental properties available and this isnt just coogee its whole eastern suburbs and inner west. so go out there read the numbers and then come and reply again.
what i really want to know is how i can protect my wealth. more than likely cash will become worthless as currencies collapse with economies, Properties might lose their value to the point where they are as cheap as chips and gold/silver is only worth its weight on the stock market but in reality i cant go down to a shop and buy a loaf of bread with a gold bar so what would there be that would protect my wealth or the very least put a roof over my head, food on the table and keep me warm in winter? guess if i owned my own home would be a start but with no work how will i maintain it and pay bills etc etc.
Man america is completly messed up, corrupt and greedy.. Its just a shame that they managed to corrupt the rest of the world. America reminds me of the great roman empire. It was thanks to corruption and greed that it crumbled from within but this time it looks like it might be the whole world. I just want to know what happens to our assets and money if the system ever collapses. I guess if u own ur home then they can never take it away but what about cash. Maybe thats why gold is so popular these days because investors see it as the only real currency if the systme ever does collapse.
So hans whats ur opinion about getting into the mortgage industry at the moment. If lenders are asking valuers to drop figures by up to %30 then this would mean it would be extremly hard for people to get loans since most prices will be above valuations. Im thinking about getting into the industry but these sort of forums tell me maybe to not waste my time for it will be extremly hard for an experinced broker to makae money let alone a newbie. What u think?
hey hans what was the name of the four corners program. your link doesnt take me there and i can not find it anywhere else.
My advice to anyone wanting to learn options is go online to google or any other and u will find many many many informative websites and forums like this one. theres a million ways of doing options its just a matter of looking at scenario in front of you and working with it.
If anyone really want to see how good non banks or credit unions are just go to infochoice.com.au and see for your self
ok here is a loan from a Mortgage house. its a variable at 6.49%.
Loan Details
Loan TypeVariableSecurity TypeResidentialPropertyAvailabilityOwner Occupiers, InvestorsRepayment OptionsPrincipal & InterestRepayment FrequencyWeekly, Fortnightly, MonthlyInterest Rate NotesMin Loan Term10Max Loan Term30Min Loan Amount$50,000.00Max Loan Amount$600,000.00Max Loan to Value Ration (LVR)80%Max LVR with Mortgage Insurance80%FeaturesExtra Repayments yes and freeLoan is Transferable (Portable) yes and freeTransfer Fee$0Mortgage Offset Available yesMortgage Offset 100% yesMortgage Offset Rate0%Redraw Available yesMin Redraw Amount$20.00Max Redraw Amount$0Redraw Fee$0Redraw Notice Period24 HoursRedraw MethodRedraw Notes & CommentsSplit AccountSplit AvailableMax No. of Accounts for Split0Separate Statements for SplitStatement FrequencyFixed OptionFee for Fixing$0FeesApplication Fee$0Legal Fee$0Valuation Fee$0Settlement Fee$275.00Service Fee$375.00Exit Fee$0Early Termination FeeEarly Termination Fees (3 Year Cost)$2,400.00Early Termination Fees (5 Year Cost)$0Switching Fee$0Switching Fee Notes:Break Costs$0General Fee Notes:As you can see they are extremly competitive and will beat the major 4 overall on a whole package. Sure the exit fee might be slghtly higher than some but will all the extras involved it more than compensates. So now you cant be sayng that non banks dont have the best deals around