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dreamtobelieve
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April 9, 2010 - 5:13 am
As God of money says RUN! Just google it and you will see a million and one reasons why this would be a VERY bad idea including the article link dan42 just posted.
If you want to be a successful investor than you need to spend the time investing in yourself by researching and putting in the hard yards yourself. This way the outcome would be long term and sustainable and much more rewarding.
Good luck!
D2B
dreamtobelieve
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March 28, 2010 - 4:29 am
Sounds like a decent enough size for a 1 bed. Personally have always liked 1 beds as an investment option, so long as in urbanized areas where the demand is strong and often like you have found the yields can be better and help you get to the CF+ sooner. Just make sure you do your research on the demographics of the area you are purchasing in.
Good luck
dreamtobelieve
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February 21, 2010 - 1:53 am
According to SQM research the vacancy rates for Sandringham is around 4.2% so take this into consideration when making any decision as unfortunately sometimes its a simple case of supply and demand, it would also appear that the vacancy rate for the area has been historically quite volatile i.e. highs in jan '09 close to 9% which is very high.
http://www.sqmresearch.com.au/graphs/graph_vacancy.php?mode=%2F&postcode=3191&t=1
That said I would suggest you get a friend/colleague to mystery shop your property manager i.e. try to arrange a viewing etc, as unfortunately you may just have one of the many lazy property managers out there. Also worth trying to call a few other property managers in the area to ask them what their thoughts are on the rentals market, as if they are having problems too it may just be the market. On the other hand if they would expect your place to rent out quickly without problems then you know where to point the blame.
All the best
D2B
dreamtobelieve
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February 2, 2010 - 12:24 pm
Margaret Lomas has written a great little book called '20 Must Ask Questions' which is all about the research phase of property investing. She's also a huge advocate of buying interstate so very applicable to your situation so might be worth you checking it out.
All the best
D2B
dreamtobelieve
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January 30, 2010 - 4:47 am
ummester wrote:
dreamtoblelieve,
One of your pin up boys, Joye, came up with the 03% decline in December.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Will-the-housing-market-cool-pd20100129-25VS7?OpenDocument&src=blb
December 1/4 is up 2.9% but month of December is down 0.3%. Admittedly Joys cliames that is becuase December is traditionally slow but slow sholdn't lead to declining prices, should it? Just less sales, I would have thought?
Here is someone from SQM wonderring how there can be a housing shortage if rental vacancys are rising. And suggesting that house price growth may be due to easy credit and not supply/demmand.
http://www.smartcompany.com.au/property/20100122-rise-in-rental-vacancies-raises-questions-about-housing-shortage-and-soaring-prices.html
The declines in 2008 I talked about were recorded by ABS and all over the news at the time, so surely I don't need to cite them again. Articles about Brisbanes apartment OS came out earlier this year, if I see one agian I will link it.
First time investors should be aware of these POVs to keep the debate balanced – if it is all spruik they base their descisions on, then that would be less nice for them.
Last post because this is farcical now. Do you even read the links you post? Because they literally have no relevance to support your argument in relation to this topic what so ever, it actually supports the argument of the vast majority of property investors who do see property as a viable investment (hence this forum). To claim that a 0.3% month on month decline (particularly as month by month is statistically unreliable, let alone in December) despite a quarterly increase overall means we're heading for decline is insanely short sighted.
Then you post a link demonstrating that vacancy rates have just returned to their long term trends, which could have been forecast by a monkey given the obvious additional incentives for first home buyers to buy and not rent last year, how you have interpreted that this suggests an oversupply leading to a decline in prices is beyond me.
The topic of this thread, was if Australian property was sustainable and a viable investment still. You predicted "imminent declines blatantly apparent by March and there will be definite negative growth (1-5%) reported in the market by that time" and that the "Austrlai property market is in a bubble bigger than any other property bubble in the developed world" yet throughout these countless posts you have never given credible evidence to support these notions, instead you have failed to mediate your point accross, provided a diluted and inconsistent argument (note the "by march", "from march" then "by march" again time frame illustrated in your earlier posts) and even posted links directly opposing your view point.
I personally believe that is highly unlikely that there will be a national decline in prices this year let alone a crash, nor do I think the nation is in for a boom, but I do believe that property is a viable investment for the long term and that with the right combination of activity, research and due diligence it provides an opportunity for anyone to achieve their long term financial goals.
dreamtobelieve
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January 29, 2010 - 1:56 pm
ummester wrote:
dreamtobelieve wrote:
Read your own posts. You claim your argument is not diluted yet you're plucking figures and dates out of thin air (with the only exceptions being an occassional reference to sensationalist journalism). Earlier on in the thread it was "blatantly apparent by March and there will be definite negative growth (1-5%) reported in the market by that time" now conveniently its "From this I deduce falling property values noticable from March 2010". Which one is it and more importantly how exactly have you arrived at this conclusion?
Where am I being inconsitent? I currently believe the oversupply of apartments and a decline in sales price will be apparent by March, I guess wether it is blatently apparent or not depends on your perspective (and mine when I typed it:)).
Wether I hold to this belief until March depends on what happens with IRs, government intervention and credit flow between now and then. If things continue on there current path, I am reasonably confident my speculation will come to pass. There is already a known OS of apartments in Brisbane and a 0.3% decline in recorded December sales prices – it's not being a prophet or anything, just predicting patterns that may lead to an inevitable conclusion.
Reason I have chosen March is because it is 3 months from the end of the FHOB and consitently rising IRs – no real science or stats here it just generally takes a quater for things to become apparent.
dreamtobelieve wrote:
You should be in politics.
How do you know I'm not?
Where you get your figures from nobody will ever know, because the reality is that they are plucked from nowhere. Not once have you ever backed up anything you say with any form of reliable statistics (i.e. ABS, SQM, APM, BIS, Matusik, Residex, Rismark, etc), so until you can demonstrate this I will bid you farewell because your credibility as far as I am concerned is quite simply shot.
I have only persevered with this now pointless debate as there are a lot of first time investors who visit this site and quite frankly it would be nice for them to have a balanced argument to form an educated opinion.
dreamtobelieve
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January 29, 2010 - 10:21 am
Read your own posts. You claim your argument is not diluted yet you're plucking figures and dates out of thin air (with the only exceptions being an occassional reference to sensationalist journalism). Earlier on in the thread it was "blatantly apparent by March and there will be definite negative growth (1-5%) reported in the market by that time" now conveniently its "From this I deduce falling property values noticable from March 2010". Which one is it and more importantly how exactly have you arrived at this conclusion? You should be in politics.
ummester wrote:

My current line of thinking is that an oversupply of apartments will become blatantly apparent by March and there will be definite negative growth (1-5%) reported in the market by that time. How the government, the RBA our banks, media and the REI as a whole respond is anyone’s guess.
ummester wrote:
BTW – my argument is not diluted, it is still thus. Australian property started over a cliff in October 2008. FHOB, Low IRs and easy credit fueled Australian property growth in 2009. Now, there is an oversupply of apartments in most major cities, FHOB has been taken away, bank lending is tightening and IRs are on the up. From this I deduce falling property values noticable from March 2010.
dreamtobelieve
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January 29, 2010 - 7:55 am
ummester wrote:
Read what i have written above aabout closed mindedness. Does it ever cross your mind that property prices might decline? Are you hedged against it? If you can't answer yes to either, I fear your faith in house prices is a little blind and you could get stung.
I too am a bit bored of this thread now, but I can't help but feel you are now diluting your whole argument. Of course some property markets will decline in value in the short term? Thats why its called a property cycle. Thats why you need to do your research, maintain a buffer and have a long term strategy. If there are better risk free investment opportunities out there then please feel free to spruik away. The reality is that some markets will increase, some will decrease and others will do nothing, its all about timing, as with any investment.
dreamtobelieve
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January 29, 2010 - 6:34 am
ummester wrote:
dreamtobelieve wrote:
That would be why I said markets and not market.
Yet you spoke about them as if they were one?
Sorry, I forgot this before but here are some links about the British undersupply.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2945465/Shortage-of-stock-and-keen-buyers-raise-house-prices.html
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2007/11/05/afx4303757.html
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2006/12/14/afx3253751.html
Sound familar? The spruik there then, almost mirrors here now (as did PI sentiment). Only difference is that here the banks let the credit flow and our govt. gave us an extra 7-14k to spend on houses in 2009. I could go into some detail as to how and why this all happened (have been studying it for a couple of years now) but i get the feeling that you don't really care.
Hey, DWolfe, if your vision of this forum is so pure – why would threads like this be opened in the first place? All POVs are valid and may contain credible information – not just yours.
Investment isn't a religion, it isn't about unwavering faith, it is about wieghing up the pros and cons. The OP raised a question, for which there are more answers than just the PIs, spruikers or REAs.
It's really simple – the only possible way Australia can have the capital growth in housing over the next 10 years as it has over the last 10 is if we become a hyperinflationary and devalue the dollar with ever flowing credit. If credit stops flowing, the market will downturn and possibly crash.

Again you are referring to sensationalist media journalism and again the fundamentals of the markets are completely different. I can't stress this enough. Just read this article http://www.hotspotting.com.au/index.php?act=viewArticle&productId=1919 and thought it was very appropriate to this thread. This is by a respected property commentator Terry Ryder who knows first hand the inadequacies of journalists reporting on the real estate market.
dreamtobelieve
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January 29, 2010 - 2:46 am
Hi Todd and anyone else in a similar position,
Personally I think its definately worth enquiring into the possibility of taking a lower interest rate personal loan to consolidate your debt as it will mean you can pay it off alot faster. Ultimately the sooner you can pay it off the sooner you will be in a position to save for a deposit and serisouly consider investing. It may be worth having a look at the site http://www.moneysavingexpert.com as well, as whilst the site is UK based the advice and principles often translate over to Australia.
As IPInvestor says, keep reading and researching as much as you can about property investing as not only will this put you in a stronger position when the time actually does come to invest, but it will also give you confidence and the belief that you are on the way to achieving your goals. Likewise I would also recommend reading some appropriate money mindset books, personally I remember reading 'Think and Grow Rich' (The Napolean Hill original, not property spruiker version) and can honestly say that it is the most influential book I have ever read and have never looked back since.
Last but not least, if you have the time there are motivational speakers like: Chris Howard who travel around the world doing free seminars called "break through to success" (google it), now whilst the seminars are very long and contain a lot of sales pitching and general American fluff, the actual principles are well worth paying attention to and will get you thinking in the right way. The website itself will say it costs $XXX but you can easily get free tickets from a number of places.
Well just my two cents worth, but think its important to stay positive and focused on your goals and you will get there.
D2B
dreamtobelieve
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January 29, 2010 - 2:00 am
DWolfe wrote:
Hi all,
My advice to all the negative posts on this thread would be to start your own website! You could call it http://www.notpropertyinvesting.com or alternatelty http://www.countingonthepension.com.
You could talk about how now is the wrong time to invest, how much money you don't have and how you don't like money, property or shares or investing! I think you may even have 5 or 6 people who would regularly want to catch up with each other to out doom and gloom each other on "the market"!
You could also move out of your homes ( for many reasons including because the house price is inflated and so is the rent) and live in caves! This could be the answer to getting away from devils such as property investors and evils such as making money!

It would probably free up space on this forum for people who GENUINELY want to know and learn and gather creditable information from like minded people who are not out to gain something in return.
Enjoy your day!
D

couldn't agree more.
dreamtobelieve
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January 29, 2010 - 1:45 am
ummester wrote:
dreamtobelieve wrote:
Curious as to who exactly is claiming there is an undersupply in the British markets? The Sun, Daily Mirror or the Sport? The fundamentals of the markets are completely different.
Sorry to be cliched again but there is no Australian market, just markets within markets. The successful property investors are the ones who make educated decisions, understand it is a long term strategy, consider the risks and can pick the appropriate time and place to enter and exit the market.
Whats interesting is when you look back through the years of posts on this site to see the same old negative spiel regurgittated back over and over again. Too many people listen to whats reported in the mainstream media and don't consider the facts.
So there is one British market but Australia has markets within markets?
That would be why I said markets and not market.
dreamtobelieve
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January 28, 2010 - 2:11 pm
Unmester you may want to start lacing up those hiking boots and follow Mr Keen upto mount Kosciusko with your prediction by the way. I will look out to see your retrospective view come March.
dreamtobelieve
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January 28, 2010 - 1:54 pm
Curious as to who exactly is claiming there is an undersupply in the British markets? The Sun, Daily Mirror or the Sport? The fundamentals of the markets are completely different.
Sorry to be cliched again but there is no Australian market, just markets within markets. The successful property investors are the ones who make educated decisions, understand it is a long term strategy, consider the risks and can pick the appropriate time and place to enter and exit the market.
Whats interesting is when you look back through the years of posts on this site to see the same old negative spiel regurgittated back over and over again. Too many people listen to whats reported in the mainstream media and don't consider the facts.
dreamtobelieve
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January 28, 2010 - 8:43 am
as350ba wrote:
Very interesting topic. Was about to start a thread related to all this, but seems it's already out there.
My concern was born about, due to the alarming stats posted on "The Morning Show" the other day.
Now, before I get knocked down in flames by all the Koshy knockers, i'm well aware of the pitfalls of taking stats too literally.
However, it was noted that most of the major centres in OZ (including Adelaide) fall inside the Top 10 of the "Most Unaffordable Cities in the World to Purchase Realestate". The honours of No1 goes to Vancouver.
This would tend to hint to me that property prices are due to fall dramatically so as to correct the market.
We all know about the big credit crunch that hit globally 2008-09, although Australia was largely left unscathed.
The concern for me then is when are we likely to experience this next "big correction" in the market? This year, next, never?
I'm currently in the due dil stage of a buy/reno/subdiv(build)/sell deal in Perth CBD. Given this latest sentiment, it's hard for me not to feel more than a little uncertain about committing.
On the other hand, the contrarians have rightly taken the view that, while the "doomsayers" are crying out no, get in amongst it and take action.
BTW, I believe I've been conservative in my number crunching, but then no amount of number crunching can compete with a burst in the property bubble.
Should I take it seriously? Happy for my pessimistic opinion to be knocked down in flames;-) Be interested to hear from others in the same position.
Cheers all, Nigel
Just thought it was appropriate to mention that despite the name "demographia international housing affordability survey" it is not a survey of the "worlds" most unaffordable cities as its only looks at 6 countries i.e. Australia, New Zealand, Republic of Ireland, UK, US and Canada http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf. Also if memory serves me correctly half the most unaffordable places listed here, were also on the list of best cities in the world to live in relation to standard of living. Personally I think the rationale in the formula is a bit on the simplistic side, but if people want to give them selves an excuse not to buy then so be it.
As a certain Mr Buffet once said "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful".
dreamtobelieve
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January 24, 2010 - 6:03 am
Couldn't agree more, a good property manager is crucial and checking them out properly is up there with building/pest inspections if you are to minimise your risks and to maximise your returns.
Having worked in the very proactive London lettings market once upon a time, I couldnt believe the sheer lack of interest some property managers had when I first came to Sydney. It was almost harder to rent a place than it was to buy. That said in London its not uncommon for the better known letting agencies to charge 16-17% of the total rental income (finders and management fee) and thats up all up front, so in some respects we should consider ourselves lucky.
Certainly no harm in actually getting your property managers to work for their money though.
dreamtobelieve
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January 21, 2010 - 1:51 pm
try http://www.onthehouse.com.au its not the most user friendly site but the the sales data does go a few years back and is free so always worth ago.
Likewise if its just to ascertain an approximate value of a specific property based on recent sales data, then a few of the mortgage brokers on these forums offer free residex reports if you e-mail them the address. The reports are fairly decent and the data is usually pretty comprehensive for the immediate surrounding streets.
All the best
D2B
dreamtobelieve
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January 17, 2010 - 10:34 am
Thought this smiley pretty much summed up my thoughts on empirepropertyinvesting.com and such companies.
As for their self proclaimed "consultants"? Its interesting how your website states how they are all property investors themselves (http://www.empirepropertyinvestors.com/profile.php), yet the ad' in http://www.seek.com.au to get these exact jobs in the first place would have absolutely no mention of this in the list of qualifications. Apparently these days you can just "start out as a property investment consultant", handy that.
http://www.seek.com.au/job/property-investment-consultant-telemarketer/sydney/16587536/81/1/
Alvin out of curiosity, how many of these "consultants" actually own a property other than their PPOR???
dreamtobelieve
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December 18, 2009 - 1:07 pm
Its got to be Coogee, NSW. Because it has a great beach, a great vibe and of course a lot of great looking girls taking a stroll
The name Coogee also apparently used to mean 'place of stink' which always makes me wonder. Something to do with seaweed
dreamtobelieve
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December 18, 2009 - 2:14 am
wealth4life.com wrote:
Dear Dan I don't know what planet you are from or how much experience you really have …
Low end market is strong it always is at the bottom …
In Sydney EAST of Pacific Hwy and Lower North Shore and Eastern Suburbs etc properties have dropped by up to 50% … this is top market and he was right … also this can be effected more …
First home owner is a false markeyt …
Please phone all agents in Mackay, Proserpine, Airlie beach, Mission Beach, Bowen … and ask their opinion …

Sorry but this is a gross generalisation. I would absolutely love to see examples of these 50% drops because I'm sure there would be some investers myself included laughing until the cows come home. The reality is that in those areas the fall in prices was considerably less than this and of the few examples of forced sales, there is usually such a back up of demand in such tightly held areas, that invariably the prices generated would achieve fair market value regardless.
Seriously these scaremonger tactics are pathetic.