Just Announced: Our trade deficit blew out again this month.

Trade gap bulges on record imports
http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,15186410-31037,00.html

“AUSTRALIA’S goods and trade services deficit with the rest of the world grew in March to $2.7 billion, the second-highest ever, and imports soared to a record $16 billion, new figures…[Read more]

If statistics and graphs can prove any given argument, can someone please send me a link to anything at all showing house prices anywhere in Australia likely to rise over the next 5 years?
My local real estate paper features a “projected capital growth” page for each suburb. Without fail they predict 15% growth for my suburb every year. The…[Read more]

I wonder why you left out this bit Foundation?

“This point is more relevant now in the U.S. than it has been before because of the sudden recent rise towards 40% in the use of floating rates.”

The point the author is making (BTW the author is the chairman of GMO that has $82 billion under management) is that historically Americans have always…[Read more]

Trends change with technological advances and changes in comsumer spending

Hmmm, sounds very “new paradigm”. Don’t tell me, don’t tell me … its different this time?!

The people who are think for themselves are the ones who swim against the tide, not with it, and this real estate boom has been of tsunami proportions.

The surveyed collapse in consumer confidence immediately post rate rise?

Snap! [biggrin]

So where is support for a decrease in property prices of 45% over the next 12 months?

I didn’t say anythingh about property prices falling 45% in the next 12 months. I quoted a news report saying building approvals for apartments in NSW fell 48% in March.

As for March rate rise having a big impact try this:

Consumer sentiment down…[Read more]

dmichie, that article does not support your claims. Why do you persist in posting it over and over and over again?
My claim was that real estate markets overshoot on the downside during a crash, which the charts in that article clearly illustrate (in the UK, US and Australia)

In the next few years it will all be about preservation of capital. 6%…[Read more]

In the next 18 months, I believe real estate will trend back to the prices it should have been had we not had a boom

What do you mean by “trend”? For property prices to get back to the long-term average income multiple in just 18 months you are really saying there will be a crash. The optimistic view is that property prices will stabilise and…[Read more]

What opportunities do you think this poses for the saavy investor?
At this point the savvy investor would sell everything and put it in the bank.

The RBA didn’t increase rates because the CPI is under control (for the moment). Also, the March hike (seemingly) had such a big impact on the economy they need to be extremely cautious about moving too fast.

Its the expectation of ever-increasing prices (or lack thereof) that will turn the market, and the market has turned. People are no…[Read more]

foundation, excellent post.

You can get the M3 numbers from the RBA website:
http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/AlphaListing/alpha_listing_m.html
Download some Excel spreadsheets and make yourself some charts.

The RBA chart pack has some good stuff too. Check out the housing affordability charts. Wow!
http://www.rba.gov.au/ChartPack/

I agree…[Read more]

The record (>7%) CAD is not a bad thing and I suppose the 80c Aussie dollar is just dandy? You really are deluded. The high dollar is a tragedy for Australian exporters, but I guess it means home owners can buy imported goods with “equity mate” loans. Sure it keeps the economy humming along (for a while) but even you must see its…[Read more]

The ultra-low interest rates of recent years has created the greatest mis-allocation of investment in human history, and you think this is a good thing?!

Will property speculation solve our current account deficit problems? Hmmm, I think not. No, all it has done is create massive indebtedness, debt that serves no good purpose other than to fill…[Read more]

“Any thoughts on investing in CBD apartments?”

Oh lordy lordy, is this a serious question? This must be some kind of troll, no-one could be so mis-informed as to be seriously considering investing in CBD apartments … could they?

Matt,

Complete your degree, become a productive member of the communinty, and contribute to the economy. Property investors are speculators who make no contribution to the productive capacity of the economy, and simply drive up house prices beyond what first home buyers can afford.

This is a once in lifetime housing bubble, not too dissimilar…[Read more]

Yep, sure sounds like the manic buying frenzy typical of a bubble — “I better buy now or I’ll miss out”. No more beachfront blocks eh? Australia has more coastline than any nation on earth with only 20 million people.

Besides, whatever is happening in Queensland and WA is months behind Sydney. Sydney leads the market, and the market is…[Read more]

AUSPROP, I can guarantee you the Sydney market ain’t gonna boom anytime soon! A slow grinding decline over 4-5 years is more likely.

Did you read the “Crisis of confidence” article in this weekend’s AFR? Property in the $1M-$4M range is taking a tumble in Sydney and Queensland with falls of up to 33% since the 2003 top.

You’ll need an AFR…[Read more]

AUSPROP, here are a few reasons why I think it is different this time:

– Real property prices are well above their long term trend line
(see http://www.cis.org.au/policy/autumn05/autumn05-1_clip_image002.gif)
– Rental yields are at historically low levels (the P/E ratio for real estate if you like)
– The percentage of investors in the real estate…[Read more]

Yes AUSPROP house prices never fall do they, except ummm Japan, and the UK, and …

You guys really do remind me of the dot com spin merchants of the late 1990s … “there’s no bubble because this is the ‘new economy’, old rules about fundamentals no longer apply”

yeh compound 1% a month for a couple of years and you will be surprised what it comes out at! a friend was day late returning paperwork with their builder a few weeks back, so they kindly applied a $7500 price rise

Sometimes this forum reads like a tech stock forum circa 1999. Where are the fundamentals to support this insanity?