I’m not insulted either … this is much more entertaining than a bearish forum like HousePriceCrash (www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showforum=22)
I just don’t believe anything is going to burst
So you are believer in the “soft landing” then? I assume you don’t believe the current economic expansion will continue forever, or that…[Read more]

Mate, if I have a biased opinion because I want to see a lower AUD (something only vaguely related to property) can you find it within yourself to admit you have more than a passing interest in seeing the property boom continue?

Email me at:
sydneyhousehunter (at no spam) hotmail.com

Hey Matt, you must be one of the few 19 year olds cheering on the housing market. Most young people I know would like nothing more than for housing prices to come back to earth.

I hope you don’t mind being asked, but what do you do for a living?
Self-employed software developer, 95% of sales overseas, 70% in the U.S. (Yes, I have more than a…[Read more]

So lets base our medium to long-term investment decisions based on 3 failed auctions in an area that has not been identified.
Not at all. I’ve been to dozens of auctions over the past 6 months. No-one ever bids. Dunno why the agents persist with the whole charade, but its helpful for someone like me who is trying to figure out what’s going on…[Read more]

Why are you so negative all the time?
Actually, I think a downturn in property (and the economy in general) is the best thing that can happen to Australia. Booms always bust, and the bigger the boom the bigger the bust. If the economy were to continue like it has for the next 12 months (i.e. a credit-fuelled bubble) the bust would be much more…[Read more]

Economics is a field where no-one is ever wrong. The problem with most economists (and yourself) is that they tend to follow the flock
The economic consensus at the moment is the economy is slowing and the most likely outcome is a so-called “soft landing”. As you know, my view is considerably more bearish, and would probably be considered extreme…[Read more]

Hmmm … well I find it fascinating that a mortgage adviser is “getting out of all property investments”. Have you told your clients this, especially the ones borrowing 100% for a 50sqm apartment?

Most of the “rubbish” I have quoted has come from the most respected economic commentators in the land; Gittins, Colebatch, Kohler, Garnaut … not to…[Read more]

I am personally getting out of all property investments to enter into other more profitable and certain investments which are property related but do not require holding property.
Well, I think its time for you to ‘fess up then! Please do tell where this wonderful investment opportunity is. I have some property-related investments that are…[Read more]

It can be difficult to do so without appearing to ‘blow one’s own trumpet’
Exactly. Robert seems to think anyone who has a negative outlook on property is some poor disgruntled student frustrated that they can’t get on the property ladder, or “missed out” on the big boom. (Robert said: “Are you jealous because you cannot afford to buy any…[Read more]

Why protect capital when you can increase it if you know how?

Sorry, I’m really not interested in your sales pitch. I’m perfectly happy where my money is now.

Your big investment idea is putting money in the bank at 6% per annum?????
Its not a big idea, its a defensive strategy for troubled times that’s all. Preserving your capital is better than losing it.

Longer term, I guess you could look at investing in Australian exporters. These companies have suffering with the high $AUD and their stocks have…[Read more]

I don’t see over investment in property as the source of all woes in this country. Contributing factors include: lack of access to capital, small population hence insignificant on the world scene, no entrepreneurial culture, shocking tax rates, obsession with giving farmers a fair go, tall poppy syndrome, lack of respect for white collar…[Read more]

It seems the RBA may have jumped too soon to raise interest rates
Remember, the RBA’s role is to control inflation (between 2-3%) not manage economic growth, that’s the government’s role. Its quite possible to have slow growth and high inflation (stagflation) and the RBA may be forced to raise rates despite a slowing economy.

A lot of people…[Read more]

Instead of regurgitating other people’s negative economic commentary, why don’t you tell us what you consider to be a good investment and show some positivity and originality for a change?

Just because I don’t have a positive economic outlook at the moment doesn’t mean I don’t have original thoughts. As I’ve said before, I think the next few…[Read more]

Here’s some more grim news for good measure:
http://www.henrythornton.com/article.asp?article_id=3275

The ABS today told us that the trade balance (sa) in the March quarter was -A$7072m, up from -A$6700m in the December quarter.

If the net income deficit rises as it has in the last three quarters, net income in the March quarter will amount to…[Read more]

Sorry, been away for a couple of days. I’ll answer these questions:
Why are you in a property investng forum if you are so against property investors?
I believe the Australian economy is in serious trouble, and that property speculation is one of the root causes of our economic problems. Sure, on the surface everything looks rosy; unemployment…[Read more]

Your little ‘real terms’ inclusions in brackets are of no consequence.
Ahhh … so its the nominal dollars that matter. Silly me, there I was thinking house prices should be adjusted for inflation.

We are discussing the current market and my comments refer to short-medium term economic outlooks.
So when exactly do you expect a recession? This is already the longest post-war expansion (which IMHO has been prolonged by ultra-low interest rates and easy credit)

However, if Labor wins an election, I would be predicting a rescession within 2…[Read more]

Regarding Mortgage broker bias, surely a booming property market is in their interest?
foundation, you keep taking the words out of my mouth. There has been an explosion in the mortgage broking business since the housing boom began. Think back to the early 90s (when I bought my first house). Who did you go to for a home loan then? A bank.…[Read more]

I believe Australia will not experience a recession

What?! Are you saying Australia will never experience a recession again? The business cycle is a fact of life. We’ve had boom and bust since the beginning of time, and as long as Australia remains a free market economy we will continue to have booms and busts.