Two things
Firstly, sorry to anybody who took offense to my other post. I was just trying to make a point but it seems to have missed the mark. My apologies if so. However I do believe there is a very unpleasent element in Wagga that would make me baulk at investing there without really looking at the specific suburb.
Either way I do not believe that the economics of investment in Wagga are right at the moment. It is in an area where capital growth should not really be significant (although is definitely possible) but has had very very strong and sustained growth over the last few years. Country towns or cities like this have caught the overflow of the capital city boom and the price rises are primarily from city buyers looking for “cheap” real estate investments i believe. So when the bubble ends these areas will suffer the most as it is investment purchases and not primary residence purchases that have driven the prices up. Bendigo is another area that I have read about that comes to mind.
Secondly, in keeping with the idea of knowing the people you take advice from and what their qualifications are I want to make one point clear about me and my advice. I HAVE NO PROPERTY AND AM ONLY 20 YEARS OLD. I have been out of the area for the last 3 years because I am studying in Japan so I have no hands on experience. Degrees here involve nothing like the work needed in Aus so I have been basically studying real estate non-stop for the past 12 months through books from the net and sites like this. I want to save here and then hit the market in 2 or 3 years when I get home. So please dont read too much into my advice because sadly for me I am not exactly a qualified advisor(just very opinionated![]) So for those who are still interested in Wagga I found this site a few days ago if anybody is interested. http://www.riverinahomes.com.au
best of luck
David
Kay
Did you read my post before writing yours or after? If after then what do you think of what I said? Was I too harsh and neg or not?
Also TeacherK6, forgot to say that I got those growth figures from the book “Property Investing for Lifestyle” by Tim Hewat
Hey. I am from Lockhart which is about 40 min drive from Wagga. It is our main provincial centre. To be honest I dont believe Wagga is the way to go. Price growth in Wagga from 2000/2001 to 2001/2002 was 28.1percent which was the highest in regional NSW with Queenbeyan second with 19.4 but over the same period it had negative pop growth which is still getting worse. Now to my untrained and very inexperienced eye that says many city investors have targeted it for positive cashflow investing and that has driven up the prices. If that is the case then when boom ends all of those people living in the cities will bail out of the small towns and the prices will plummet. Then you are just stuck carrying a capital loss in a neg pop growth area.
As far as development goes there was a major announcement maybe 4 years ago about a large company moving into town that was going to employ heaps of people. Am not sure as was a while ago but it may have been telstra but as i said am not sure. I have been living out of the area for the last 3 years so I havent heard anything since but I remember that this was really big news as they hadnt had anything like that in Wagga for quite a while.
Another fact I should mention is the current social situation in Wagga. There are lots of problems with youth violence in Wagga at the moment. eg going down the main street after about 9pm is just not worth the risk. Also groups of boys/men are often seen causing disturbances in even the quiet suburbs. I cant tell you whether kooringal is a good area although I have a friend who lives there and from visiting it once or twice it seems fine. However you really should look at the area closely as there are some definite stay away areas in wagga. I cant stress this enough. Some of the areas have people who you just dont want to deal with. eg I dont know if you heard about it but a few years ago a baby was horribly murdered in one of the notorious areas. Without going into details it was an extremely gruesome and disturbing murder with a pair of pliers used!
As of when I had left the area i think nobody had been charged as even though there would have been lots of screaming NONE of the neighbours talked. It was widely assumed that the father was responsible and he was held but released eventually. I dont think they are the kind of tenants you would like to have.
Sorry if all this wasnt want you wanted to hear and if you have found a really good deal that look into it but I really dont think the area is much of an investment propect at the moment. Best of luck
David
Your right the building standards are a factor, particularly here where they had the earthquake in 1995. Think they lifted their standards after that, here at least. Will have a look and see if there is any obvious increase in prices for properties built after the quake. Cant see myself getting a loan from my company as I dont have one. I just work about 7 or 8 hours a week and they are basically just private lessons or in small schools. I get an allowance from the Japanese govt and uni is paid for by them so I dont need to much and dont have much time to work. I can get interest free loans from them but the limit is about 150000yen so wouldnt mean much and has to be paid back within a few months. If u get any cool ideas or interesting stuff please give me a mail or a message.
Huey, I am also here in Japan but am an undergraduate student who is just working part time. The others are right about it being very easy to get an english job in Japan and the best way being to do it from oz. Try typing Japan in the search on careerone.com or seek.com and you’ll find that three quarters of the jobs there are english teaching and are very easy to get. In my area at least(Kobe), alot of the aussies come over with Nova with a visa and accomodation organised and after a while(few weeks or months) look for some other teaching jobs. It is very easy to pick up private teaching jobs in the evenings, which is what I do after my uni classes, and most in Kobe that I know of end up quitting Nova and going private or to other english schools which are everywhere and finding their own accomodation as I have heard from friends that Nova charges a fair bit more than fair market value in this area for rent. Comparing Japan to England, if her goal is to earn cash than I cant recommend Japan enough. I have two cousins who are 20,21 years old and in London they are working in bars and clubs. The pay there is nothing like teaching here in Japan. A good indication of this is the fact that they said they would never go to Japan for a holiday as they couldnt afford it but i was able to spend all of August in Europe with 3 weeks in England visiting them(ps the european heat wave would not have been a heat wave if the locals had actually heard of airconditioning!!!). So if her main aim is to earn money i have to say Japan is the best option but I imagine that she would have many other ideas to take into account as well. But living here would be an unforgettable experience that I highly recommend.
I agree with you that hidden costs would be the worry here, particularly due to the language. I would also want to find some good research material hopefully in english before going anywhere. I also agree that for cash flow rather than capital gains this could potentially be a great situation with such low interest rates and with good cash flow any further drop in the market could be ridden out.
Regarding Aus versus Japan, until the last few days my plan was to graduate in 2 and a half years with some cash and work for 3 years to get more cash while putting it all in some sort of fund back home, probably an index fund. I thought that by the time i got home in 5 years the Australian market would hopefully have rationalised a bit. But from this post and others and a bit of looking around over the last few days the Japanese market has caught my attention. I think with such a depressed market there has to be heaps of bargains around as there is such negative sentiment around and nobody seems to be considering investing locally. I think anything other than sticking your money under the mattress is unpopular here at the moment. Saw a figure that I have my doubts about that there is US500bn dollars under Japanese mattresses cause they have no confidence even in the banks(especially the banks). With this reluctance to buy and financial hardship forcing many to sell there must be opportunities everywhere. I would be reluctant to enter the Australian market at the moment because I gather from this forum to cashflow any property would require some more creative ideas like wraps or renovations or something like that and I would probably want to start on something more simple like a standard buy and hold strategy. So for that reason the Japanese market would be more attractive i guess.Some other drawbacks to investing in Japan that i can think of off the top of my head is that I only have a student visa with permission to work part time atm rather that a work visa so that may affect things. Also I dont know how the banks would like me going home while still having loans. And if that was ok and I went home I wonder how much business I could conduct coming back on just a tourist visa if i had to in the future. These are just some ideas I have thought of. May not be a problem but would just have to find out. Also going around and conducting interviews to build a team seems dawnting enough at home let alone in Japan but it would be a learning experience.
Have I thought much about investing in Japan? To be honest, until about 2 or 3 days ago….nope. But atm I am very keen to at least look further into it and see what the possibilities are. Plan to talk to a mate from NZ in a few days who has married a Japanese girl and bought an apartment here and see if i can learn a bit from him and then maybe look around for a few resources and see what the story is about finance and so on. I dont know what to expect but just quickly last night I looked at the Japanese Yahoo in the real estate section and found a place in ten minutes for 4800000yen in the centre of Kobe with 3 bedrooms, living room, laundry and kitchen. It was a bit old admittedly but my friend and I both agree that it should confortable rent for way more than 150000yen per month from our experience of renting here. However that is a rental yield of 37.5 percent I think so I believe i must have missed something or the place must be in very bad condition. It was about 28 years old and while being listed in order of price was surrounded by one bedroom places so something is amiss i think. Either way is definitely worth further inspection.
Terryw, I must admitt I am a bit surprised by how cheap your place is in Osaka. I am not disputing the price I just didnt realise how much the market has come back since the bubble. What I know about the market is just stats from the bubble and stuff locals have told me about it so it is not really that up to date. And the current prices I have looked at here are just in my area which is only one station from the centre of Kobe so is probably a bit more expensive than normal. With your apartment, if you are having trouble finding tennants then you might like to aim for the student market. A lot of the students that go to Osaka Uni live in Suita. I understand that there can be problems with students but it is an excellent uni and all the students there would have had to work like crazy to get there so they are on the whole pretty studious and quiet. I say this because i go to Kobe Uni and it has about the same reputation so I am going on what my classmates are like. If you do wish to do this a good idea maybe be to get your real estate agent to contact the uni coop as they probably have a section for finding accomodation for students.
The bad loans here are still a big problem here. As of the 2002 financial year they were still increasing because alot of banks and politicians are reluctant to force painful change. The financial services and economic minister Takenaka has been trying to sort the problem out and last year drafted a bill to tighten up the rather poor accounting principles of the banks but it was watered down to the point of being useless by the old guard of the ruling LDP.He has however succeeded in making the auditors be tougher on banks and this resulted in Resona Bank being found to have a cash ratio below the required level so some things are being done to solve the problem. A reasonable period of sustained growth and the resulting increased profits for business might knock a bit of a hole in the problem but profer principles must be put in place to ensure the problem never gets as bad again.
Japanscott the reason I am not as confident as you about the market improving is that the 3.9% annualised growth for the last quarter was almost entirely because of increased exports and not because of a strong domestic sector. This means that domestic spending hasnt really improved that much yet. It is basically the opposite to the Australia’s situation where economic growth dropped greatly because of the export sector (drought and terrorism/SARS related drop in tourism) but domestically Aus is still pretty much going along like a dream (although the possible real estate bubble is causing worries). However I do think there are many opportunities for the savy investor particularly ones looking for positive cashflow rather than quick capital gains. I dont know much bit I would imagine that with 1% interest rates even properties with the most average rental yields could be made cashflow positive.
Finally, would you guys ever have the confidence to invest here, particularly without much investing experience elsewhere? The reason I ask is that I am dying to start but I cant get home at the moment for long enough to build a team,study an area etc and here i dont think i could ever be confident enough that i know enough given the language barrier. I think i would feel that i have missed stuff cause I dont understand Japanese 100% or that I couldnt be as well researched as if I was in Aus. What do you guys reckon?
real estate investing in japan is very different from the standard australian concept of investing. This is because the prices are so high. During the real estate bubble which burst in 91 the aggregate value of all the real estate in Japan was worth 50% more than the rest of the world put together.prices have gone down alot since then but i think u get the picture that real estate investing is not for the average person. Middle class families spend their lives paying off their box(apartment). also real estate investing is a bit of a dismal science over here at the moment. Just this thursday they released the national real estate growth figures for last year. It was the 12th consecutive year that prices had fallen.
Another consideration i the fact that your investment as a foreigner would not be welcome over here. Dolf de roos in his book real estate riches specifically mentions Japan as the prime example of a country which makes it very difficult legally for foreigners to invest. I cant give u specifics on how but i am certain that it would be an extremely difficult and frustrating experience investing here.
Also keeping in mind how rediculously expensive property is here the only place most of us could afford would be out in the sticks. That then begs the question about how important population growth is to u, because there is no country areas with population growth. The national population is meant to stop growing in 2005 and there is a massive exodous from the country to the city.thats just what i reckon anyway.
hey
my japanese is ok i guess but not great. i came over here knowing nothing and just had a one year full on course where we covered heaps of stuff. we did about 1600 kanji in 12 months. now i guess it is reasonable conversational. definitely not business level but can hold my own with most people. my degree is just a standard economics degree. what i mean by not well known is that for jobs, particularly in the finance industry where i am interested in, the name of the university is fairly vital and in aus very few people would know kobe uni. but in japan it has an unbelievable name especially for economics so maybe i can get a job with a well known company and then go home with not only my degree but also experience at a well known company. thats the theory anyway.
i just saw an ad a while ago for finance from japanese banks for investing in real estate in the US, UK, Aus and i think NZ. I didnt take too much notice because i wasnt really interested then.was maybe about the end of last year. dont know if it is just for japanese people or what.have heard from somewhere that u can be a foreigner but must be working in Japan and earning yen. dont know if that is just when u apply for the loan or for the term of the loan or what.just remember that the rate they were offering was about 1%.that would make nearly any property cashflow positive. would imagine that they might be willing to lend in aus dollars which would take away risks involved with exchange rates as all the banks here advertise for people to invest in aus dollars so they must like it as an investment option.
i think i will have to work here for maybe 2 or 3 years after graduation because my degree wont be very well known at home but is very well known here. i will apply for jobs here and home and maybe the us and uk and see what happens but my best chance is here i think. but then i wanna get home after a few years hopefully with some cash to start investing. so now i am just learning. i would like to start now but i dont have any money and also have basically no bank records in aus so it would be difficult to get a loan i think while working here. also going on dolf de roos book with the 100-10-3-1 rule i would not be able to spent enough time at home to look at enough properties to be confident of my decision i think.
Am from near Wagga Wagga although went to school in Sydney and have come straight from there to Japan. Am at Kobe uni doing economics. I am here on a 5 year program and have done 2.5 of those years. Teaching on the side to save some cash to take home and invest. I am only 20. A bit young but gotta start sometime. First got keen on investing after reading Robert Kiyosaki’s rich dad poor dad and have just kept buying books and reading since then and looking on this site. Are you actively looking at properties now and planning to buy before going home or are u just learning now? Have you looked into getting finance here instead of in Aus?
When I said that interest rates would rise I was talking medium term. Lots of real estate commentators seem to think that there will be a change in the stange of monetary policy stance to contractionary in about 2 or 3 years. Have heard 2006 mentioned more than once although that is not much more than a stab in the dark. Entelechy was correct about the exchange rate comment which I hadn’t thought of before although the rise in the ex rate because of an interest rate rise would be lessened because of the crowding out effect of the rate rise on investment. But still the ex rate concerns may mean the RBA may want to wait for the Feds in the US to raise theirs a bit which is not coming until fears about deflation go away. So I guess in summary I think that interest rates wont go up much in the short term but in the medium term they are coming. The RBA is going to want to reign in the spending in residential property eventually and once this does it may give the gov’t an opportunity to act in some form on negative gearing. Particularly if the market goes down quickly and wipes out alot of negative gearers there will be alot of angry people who may feel resentful towards those who sold them the negative gearing idea and negative gearing may go out of fashion very quickly. This could give the gov’t even more room to move.
Thats true I guess. It would affect property both ways. It is just that the whole idea of negative gearing to me seems to be the tax deduction. Take that away and people are just left with a plain expense(as apposed to one they can trick themselves into believing is something else!). But yes getting rid of the deduction would affect pos geared properties and their profitability too I guess.
Just to continue on from what I said earlier, what does everybody think will be the future of negative gearing? I dont mean for investors but rather legally. I believe Australia is one of the few western countries that still allows the interest to be deducted from income for tax purposes(am not certain of this and welcome correction) and I was just thinking that perhaps it’s days may be numbered here too. I understand the possibility of getting rid of this deduction was raised in political circles recently although it was shot down pretty quickly. I am just thinking that maybe the politicians realise that getting rid of it now would be political suicide because everyone is so geared at the moment and it would completely wipe out the real estate market so they are maybe waiting for the eventual interest rate hike to rationalise the market a bit. It would take out of the market those extremely vunerable negative gearers then perhaps the politicians would consider getting rid of negative gearing. I would imagine that given the amount of money being poured into the market at the moment the gov’t would be in for a huge revenue windfall if they were to get rid of it in a period when the market is less overheated.