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  • Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    On an upside if things stay depressed for three more years that means my fixed rate will reset to a lower rate. woo hoo. Doubtful but i dont think that will happen.

    But as for preperations. Yes i have a few.

    I bought  my IP in a depressed market to start with so not as far to fall.
    My IP was bought in a area that only boomed from a lower base so not overpriced in todays dollars.
    6 years repayments in unused LOC if needed
    PPOR to be paid of in just over a year which is withing my contract time for work.
    Cash reserves.
    Income insurance
     Things can still go wrong but these measures help me sleep at night.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    As many have said before. There are always reasons NOT to buy property. And sure if you made a decision on investing that is based on what is happening now you would never ever think about buying a property. But property has worked for many over the last 10,20, 30, years.So its odds on that once this passes property will continue to work as an investment.Even if you bought one property that became cashflow neutral so you could hold it at no cost. Come retirement you would have either a nice big slab of cash to spend away or some rent to top up your super. That cant be bad.

    As for the argument that there are better investment choices out there. Well im not going to argue that one as i dont know enough to comment. But property is proven to be a winner over the long term. Thats enough for me to go against the what ifs and have a go.

    On a side note the old argument that its better to rent that pops up all the time. This would be true( Although its getting close now) if people saved the difference and invested it in other ways. How many people actually do that. Buying a PPOR can be looked at as forced saving and then can be used to buy other properties. This is also a good thing.

    In this slump its hard to look at property in a positive light. Believe me i struggle at times when the gloomy boys put foward good arguments that are hard to argue. But i just trust that in time property will continue to work as an investment.It may not but i am atleast going to give it a go as doing nothing means you have a 100% chance of faliure.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    harb wrote:
    foundation wrote:
    You clearly haven't been keeping your eye on the inflation figures that are coming through.

    How are them inflation figures coming along, still keeping your eye on them ?

    Be careful. You know how they work. They will come back with a highly thought out explanation for the change which still supports there point of view while all the time skipping over the subject.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    Scamp.

    You actually have some good information to share. Some is complete s#@t but all can see this while other segments are very usefull. Its the way you put the information across. You come here and DEMAND our attention and proceed to bark at us that what you say WILL 100% HAPPEN.From what i can gather you do not have enough training,expieriance or years on this planet to be so certain. The smartest people in the world can not predict the future. Sure you can cut and past as many news clips and graphs as you want. The thing about graphs is they are either of past events or they are future speculation.Thats it.It has been shown many times over that what is expected to happen does not always happen. Public sentment is the variable that people cant predict. You and many like you bombard these investment sites looking for praise for your predictions.

    Were you that little boy at school that tried that little bit too hard to get the gold star of the teacher for correct answers. Are you the friend that cant help but to tell everyone what happens on the movie everyone is watching. Do you predict every sports games finishing score exactly because you know exactly how it will play out.You and people like you are nothing new. Not just on these forums but in everyday life. You are the one who sees negativity in everything and therefore feel drawn to tell anyone positive that they are wrong. Its a strange way to fill your time bit whatever floats your boat i guess.

    PS i think you may be right in some areas.
    #On average 5 to 25 % value drops across Australia.
    #Some larger  due to bad buying in the first place or overheated areas.
    #Some big drops due to over optimistic selling prices to start with so not really a drop.
    #Some places will plateau due to correct current values and solid fundamentals
    # some price rises due to cheap purchase prices and increased demand.
    #5 years time a solid upward trend will start again but not a boom.

    These are my predictions. Nothing more ,nothing less,Take them or leave them.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    I may be reading it wrong but are you planning to rent it out straight away. If so i dont think you will be eligable for the grant. You must live in the property to get it.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    Wow they are worried about cows releasing fart gas and they are going to sneak up and tazer them. FAARRK. imagine the gas release then. Woo hoo.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    Yeah. Bloody scientoligy crap.???????  That is what we are talking about right??  No thats right. Its those bloody aliens anal probing everyone and releasing fart gas into the atmoshpere…   Man the world is gone to pot.  Did you here they are trying to change the direction of the Earths rotation. Somthing about Sydney wanting sunsets not sunrises over the water.  Its that Binladen bloke im sure. 

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    There was a news artical the other day stating they found the fossil of what they believe to be the biggest snake that ever lived. It died off well after the dinasaurs. They also said that due to its size they believe the temperatures were hotter at that time.

    I also heard that the ice is melting of greenland. GLOBALWARMING they yell. Well they are happy about it as they can now farm the land like it use to be farmed in the past. It use to be farmed before ???.    So yes things are warming but it has not been proven that this is not part of a bigger cycle.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    I agree about the bubble. But ithink there is no way we could ever stop a boom or bubble from happening. The boom/bust cycle just keeps on happening over and over. I think its human nature that plays a big part. The sheep in us just start following and the end result is the massive swings that form cycles. And im sure the boys at the top want it to continue. There is a lot of money to be made in a short time during booms. This is when the rich get richer and the poor get f#@ed over. It might not be right but i cant see it changing. This is why a long term view ( 20 years at least) for investing will still pay off. It smooths over the lumps and bumps with less risk.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    If my house dropped 50% that would mean after you take out the building cost of a similar house today the land would be worth NEGATIVE $25,000.  It will not happen.  It may in some areas but a 50% drop Australia wide is just a sensationalist comment thrown out to get maximun effect.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    ummester wrote:
    wealth4life.com wrote:
    I agree Devo76,

    The point is any person can predict the winner of a horse race when it's finished.

    Every now and then WE all need to put up our hands and say opps nobody is perfect and Steve has done lots of great things and many mistakes like all of us, we're all human even Packer made mistakes.

    Let he who has not sinned throw the first stone …

    This wasn't a horse race.

    Though Steve would have had no idea when this crash would come, I bet he knew that the investment strategies of the past decade were unsustainable and the same for Australia's commodity boom.

    And if he told everyone a decade ago that it was unsustainable and a correction was coming, quick get out. How many would have missed out on the massive gains in this time. RISK/REWARD. Its up to the individual to decide what ratio they want the mix in.

    I locked my interest rate in at just under 8 % some time back because EVERYBODY SAID THEY WERE GOING OVER 10%. What are they at now.
    I dont blame anyone for that. I made the decision to lock based on the information i had. In the end thats what everyone should do.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    What constantly amazes me is the constant remarks that all the investors on here have this blind belief that property will always go up year to year with little or no risk. To those investors that believe this YOU ARE IDIOTS. But my beef is i know of very few if any that think like this.  I am sure the vast majority know that it is almost a 100% certainty that after a boom there is a correction or slump. And many agree that a larger boom runs the risk of a larger slump. This became evident to me very early on as investors with time in the trade behind them quickly told anyone who would listen. This was constantly spread on these and other forums.The only time people stated that you would most likely not loose is when they stated OVER THE LONG TERM. This has not changed.

    So now things are correcting or crashing( Depending what camp you are from). Is this really that unexpected. No it is not. This is what many warned us about and the very expierianced stated clearly that while the sun shines you should prepare for the gloomy times. I have done this. Im sure many others have. This is part of property investing. This is part of the CYCLE we all here so much about. What will happen next i dont know. These are uncharted waters we are sailing in now. Does this mean jump ship. No it does not. Every boom ending event befor this came with a long list of reasons why property was dead and it would not recover. Yet here we are time and time again.

    So what do we do now. I can not speak for everyone but i myself will continue to believe in property investing for LONG TERM wealth creation. I will continue to protect myself as best i can without running to the hills.Yes there will be blood in the streets for those who overextended.I feel for the people who bought at the absolut peak with 100% loans. But this is not the majority. Many are in alot better position and can handle some down time in the short to medium term.

    These are the times we have all been warned about. Not the death of property investing. Only the inevitable down part that comes with such a long run great returns.Like so many warned us about when investing PREPARE FOR THE DOWN TIMES. Why should we now only concentrate on the gloom instead of PREPARING FOR THE NEXT UPTURN.

    A slump is not new news. It is not the end of investing. I may be wrong but i think its a safe bet im not.

    Thats my rant.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    Scamp wrote:
    harb wrote:
    Scamp wrote:
    Harb my dear,

    The problem is not convincing yourself that your properties are worth 10 million dollars each.
    The problem is trying to sell them and finding out that the only offer you get is 200.000.

    Then refusing to sell them for less then 10 million dollars each would solve my problem.

    Yes, this is what everyone who can afford to do that is doing. I believe none ( or very few ) of the people on this forum have actually tried to SELL a house instead of buy buy buy. The real problem, my dear harb, occurs when the BANK tells you that your properties are worth 200.000 and that you please pay back the 9.800.000 'equity maaaate' that you have taken out of the bank.
    This btw is what caused this whole mess.

     
     As long as you are making payments why on earth would a bank turn a papor loss into a real loss by calling in loans. It would make no sense. They would much rather you continue to pay your huge interest bill and wait for prices to recover no matter how long it takes.If this was to happen on a large scale then we are in a world of hurt even the gloomers would be shocked at. Cant hide behind gold bars either as im sure the new world order would be bashing down your door to seize them. Forget your rich farmland that will be seized by the government to feed the people during this coming depression.Where do you draw the line.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    gmh454 wrote:
    harb wrote:

      They've made the mistake of waiting for a correction and refused to admit they could be wrong,  its called being in denial and I'm guilty of it sometimes. ;-)  

    Harb the lights have just turned amber and that nice elderly couple who smiled so sweetly at my little dog, are quietly waiting for the green, and don't see the guy coming in the truck nailing the throttle which is not picking up as he expected….

    oh no…………………………..

    What has that got to do with the price of eggs in Tasmania ?

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    I guess this is good for me as i would like to retire in 20 years at the earliest. Plenty of time to set myself up .

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    He wanted to come back and soak up the greatness of his ability to predict a slump after a boom. Who would have thought hey.
    Some one give that man a medal.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    I think a outright NO is too strong. There are bargains out there that may be cashflow neutral or better and not suffer badly in a slump. People say wait a few years for things to get real bad. But if this happens will you be in the position to buy then. Will you have a job. It is a lot harder to buy a cashflow property on the dole than it is to keep it.

    Im not saying go buy a Ip if you are about to loose your job but everyone says wait for the worst but this will possibly mean higher unemployment and maybe less equity to borrow against.This may be the best time to buy buy will you be able too. Thats why i guess they say buy when you can.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    Scamp wrote:
    devo76 wrote:
    I remember my grandparents house in Broken hill sold for $30,000 about 8 years back. It was probably the best in the street but they were the last to leave. You could get one in the street for under $20,000. If this happens again. I will consider buying and boarding it up for the next boom. There will be a next boom. Got to get in early but.

    There's always a next boom. The question is if you will earn more by investing there as opposed to investing in something else. My guess : you will earn much more by investing somewhere else. Don't forget that maintaining the house to a suitable standard will cost you a lot of money if they steal your rooftiles and windows and doors every weekend.

    Fair point. I am not interested in mining towns to be honest. I would want my net wealth to be a bit higher yet before i take on that risky market. I am mainly interested in NSW in or out of the city. The one im chasing now will have a 10% return at purchase and 30% below asking. NSW has had a big correction for some time now. Yes there may be more to come but we sure as hell are not at the peak. I cant speak for other states especially the resource led states but there is a somewhat return to normal prices around my area. Not 2001 prices but sustainable realistic levels.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    ummester wrote:
    devo76 wrote:
    What i want to know is what happens to prices when they hit bottom. Do we all really believe they will stay there. If things have improved economy wise and sentiment has changed then it is a fair call to suggets that they will trend upwards in value from that low. At what speed i dont know but here we are comparing Aussie prices at the begining of a correction to those that have already had theres. Apparently we tend to follow these other countries so when we are nearing our bottom of the cycle theres a good chance that our housing affordability will look as good if not better than these other countries due to ther prices trending up again. And this does not have to be because of 50% drops. A small correction down for us and a correction up for these other countries will bring things back in line rather quickly.

    Our upward momentum will be based on our economy – not other counties housing markets. I think it is wishful thinking to believe that if the American property market starts to trend up Australia's will also by default. We didn't trend down when they started, did we? Australia always suffers a lag and some states in Australia always lag more than others.

    Besides, who says America will trend up again. This could be it for the US. We may have to wait for China to develop enough to sustain it's own growth before Australia booms again.

    Ultimately, though, you answer is in your question. Housing in Australia will trend up when it is affordable and economically viable to do so. If wages are increasing and employment is going up and commodities are booming, then there is a fair chance the market will trend up again.

    True. I didnt mean we track there housing. I agree its the health of the economy that will turn things around and we are clearly lagging these other power house countries by a year or so. this to me means we may still be at the bottom while they are heading up again and just as they dragged us down. They will aid in our recovery.I still believe the US will be our world leaders. I mean they clearly effected the world when they slowed so its fair to say they will effect the world in a positive way when they recover.  I agree we have more downward movement to go but not evenly across the board. There is some good buying out there now for Ip and PPOR.

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    I remember my grandparents house in Broken hill sold for $30,000 about 8 years back. It was probably the best in the street but they were the last to leave. You could get one in the street for under $20,000. If this happens again. I will consider buying and boarding it up for the next boom. There will be a next boom. Got to get in early but.

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