Forum Replies Created
I am concerned. I have funds to purchase another 2 properties but i am waiting to see what happens.If things only drop of a little then flatline a bit well then i feel confident enough to buy in my preferred area.
If they drop a lot well then i have a low LVR that will still be ok and i will start to look and buy when i think it is close to bottom.Either way i have over 6 months annual/long service leave
1 Years wage in cash for personal expenses
LOC worth 10 years of my IP's repayments
And a LVR that could handle the dreaded 40% drop.So in a nut shell i have a buffer but im watching and waiting to decide my next move. No rush in this market.
I actually agree with both posts above. I believe you should give property a miss for the next 6 months,that should be long enough to work out future direction. I dont believe the new grant will make much of a difference. It inflated prices before but that was from a lower base.I myself have no shares apart from the ones my employer gives me each year. that is about to change as i have opened a online broking account and i plan to put around $20,000 in over the next few months.
For every hit there is a miss. Not just you but others like you. Interest rates will hit 10% plus. Fuel will hit $2.50 plus blah blah blah. All wrong plus there is a lot more.For every bit of news that supports your belief there is another that supports the opposite.
I actually take some stuff from your post. You do show the other side of the argument. But then you clearly get wound up in your own negativity and start dribbling crap. This is clear to see for anyone who reads your post. You actually shoot yourself in the foot. People start to listen to you then of you go on the extremist stuff and people zone out..
I love the whole " if you want to know the truth look at this random news artical" Yeah sure i will pin all my beliefs on random articals and youtube clips. Get real.
What exactly do you want from a PROPERTY FORUM. Dont claim you are here to help i dont buy that. Do you want to bask in your own glory when one of your one hundred predictions come true. Do you want a gold star. What ?.
We will never agree becaase you seem to think every investor just buys endless property at any price on the assumption of values doubling every 7 years. I really wish you guys would let this one go.This is a small percentage. Most look at long term growth.
I bet we will see a correction that you guys will jump on as a crash and take claim to the glory of picking it. But if a drop of 20 % comes after previose gains of 150% as many have expierienced. Who cares. Some will loose. Some will not.
And if you do have more property than me well than good on you.Well done
hbbehrendorff wrote:wian wrote:it amazes me the scare tactics the media and others go on about, painting all this doom and gloom rubbish. the fact is , no one knows whats going to happen. and i would think that once it all settles down, i am sure the prices will correct themselves a bit, but they wont crash. If anything, people will pulltheir money out of shares and put it back into property,cheers
wian
How can you say that no one knows what is going to happen, when this whole ecconomic collapse situation is planned and the fate of the markets and important global issues are decided at meetings like the bilderberg group ?
There is proof of meetings and classified documents from years ago that state how the sub prime mortgages and the stock market was going to be imploded, to push for global monetary power consolidation and bailouts.
Its also stated that oil will go down to $50 to cause ecconomic destruction within the middle east, The dollar is going to be totally collapsed so that foregin dollar reserves are usless and the currency will be replaced by the amero.
How can you ignore all these facts and ignorantly say that no one knows what is going on, or what will happen. I think you need to stop watching Australian Idol and do some serious research into History and non mainstream media and current events to get a proper perspective as to what is really going on.
I don't mean to be rude but there is much knowledge to be learnt before you can grasp this ecconomic problem
What he means is stop watching idle and start believing every conspiricy theory you hear. And also dont trust world leaders and those who serve them. Instead trust teenage university economics student who smash these forums daily.
He means dont listen to the expierianced people in the world with many boom bust cycles under there belt. Instead just follow the worst possible outcome as that is the one you are imprinted to follow due to a general negative outlook on life.
He means when you here the best and worse case scenarios. Dont use you brain and have some faith that the true outcome will be somewhere in the middle. No you must take the worse route and live your life in fear.
This will sort itself out. I say let it happen. let the negative nellies have there day in the sun and then move on. I would love to think that in a few years they will be gone but they are drawn to a negative outlook. they will jump on the next world ending event like ducks to water.
This is the time that seasoned investors and millionares talked about. When peolpe are running for the hills. You must look for opportunity. Just remember who do you want to learn off. The wealthy and smart or the poor and negative.
So many armchair experts on these forums lately its getting funny. Things be it property shares or climate can go so many ways and there are endless studies and news articals supporting all of them. Someone gets brainwashed into believing one POSSIBLE outcome then off they go. Trying to ram it down everyones throught and if they dont take it as fact. Well then they mare just completly wrong and in denial. This can be said for positve and negative views on current climates.
Some people have there head in the sand thinking things will continue to roll on as they have done over the last ten years. These people are a minority as most agree we are slowing down and are adjusting there activites as required.
Then the other end of the spectrum. The gloomers some of which seem to think the world will stop revolving. Quick store food and batteries and head for the hills they say. These are generally thoughts from a simple mind that is easily led. A cult leaders dream really.
Also there are the gloomers on GHPC. I frequent the web site and get a lot of info from them. But you have to see it for what it really is.While some are comments are true and unbiased. Many are just from angry little people bitter because they cant buy a house. They cut and paste articals and then explain why we are all doomed.They say 100% what is about to happen and then when the complete opposite happens do they go "oops i was wrong" No way they just explain it with more crap and put another negative spin on it. They are activly trying to push down the market for there own benefite and are so wound up with negativity they are like a gaggle of trolls around a fire. It is pathetic.
I believe all people on this site should also visit GHPC. ( After all they are constantly on hear spreading there GHPC bible right guys)
A newbie will go on there and at first be absolutly horrified as people tell them that 100% without doubt property investing is finished. But as you spend more time on there you realise the quality of the poster and you start to see through them. At this time you throw 90% of there crap to the side and use it for the good information available. At this point it is a useful website.I would wait another six months personally just to find out if and by how much properties may drop. During that six months( It will pass quickly) Do a lot of reasearch on your desired area. Go to open houses and auctions and get a feel for what is actually happening. If you find a desirable place throw in a low ball offer that would reflect any future drop in value.Arm yourself with info both for and against property investing and come to your own conclusion.
But remember the moment a FHB actually owns a house. They too would love nothing more than to see house prices rise because now they are on the ladder also.Its just that initial step to buy one. They have more help to do that now so get in when you can i say. Certain gloomers while hating investors ATM would be more than happy with rising house values AFTER they buy.They can all start accumilating wealth.
Some argue that its not real wealth as all houses rise and therefore if they sell they have to pay the same again for another property generaly speaking( No real gain in wealth). I agree exept for two points. Thanks to inflation etc the borrowed amount gets smaller as the years roll on and also im sure that if a investor sells a property down the road and banks the proceeds. That money is as real as any cash i have ever known.Buying a PPOR and buying one Ip is well withing the majority of Australias working populations grasp and is therefore a good way to improve there wealth situation.FHB will quickly become investors as times improve.
I think the places they mentioned have a greater risk of dropping house values especially if mining slows down. Im from a mining family and believe me it can happen fast.
hbbehrendorff wrote:But how is that possible ? Property only goes up…My advice, Chill out for another 2 years, Get some more equity, Upgrade your 6.0 SS to a 4.0 Typhoon, Buy a jetski and think about how rich you will be in 2010 because property doubles every 7-10 years Thats means your property will now be worth $860 000 then in 2017 it will be worth $1,720,000 wait how about I just make a table for you.
2024 – 3,440,000
2031 – 6,880,000
2038- 13,760,000
2045- 27,520,000
2052- 55,040,000
2059- 110,080,000
2066- 220,160,000WOW by the year 2066 you will be like a 200 millionare you will be able to employ 100 servants and you will have your own personal space rocket in your backyard, And you never even had to work for it !
I love you magical money, your the best
Wow Another useless post by ,mdjsnhfehjgirehjrewbfkjrsbukk or whatever it is.
And yet another PROPERTY ONLY GOES UP reference that seems to only ever come from gloomers themselves.Back to the question
To me you have two options. Drop it significantly and pay of the remainder ASAP. By that time the market may be in better shape
Or
Can you refinance. Interest only on $370,000 should be a lot lower than you a currently paying. Just be ready to see no growth for a while but if you are thinking long term like you should be anyway. Then its value in 10 years it what you will be concerned about. It may not be an ideal situation to be in but you have to do the best you can with what you got. Hope you find this info better than the trolling from the bottom feeder above.Scamp wrote:devo76 wrote:All crap aside. These are very interesting times and if you are under 30 you are about to see a environment that who have not seen before. Am i worried. Yes. It would be stupid not to be. Am i happy with my position. Yes. I have a good buffer,secure job,50% LVR and loans approved to buy more if a bargain appears.Fact is life goes on,Bad times pass. You must look at this as a time to keep safe but also look for opportunities.And also dont forget to enjoy what this country has to offer outside of investing. You dont have to be rich to enjoy everything.Although i did just buy a 996 ducati yesterday. Man i love this bike.
I like the Ducati. Is that the one with the tailpipe under the seat ? ( and a low humming noise ).
Very nice bike indeed. I'm more of a chopper guy though. A fatboy or a road king for meYes, you're right, there's plenty of other things to do. I'm not going to warn people anymore about buying. If they want to buy, then please, let them. Dow crashed another 7% today by the way, these are very interesting times. Loads of money to be made if you take some risks. But for me , time has come to go kitesurfing and windsurfing at 'some' beach in Australia ( probably Stockton Beach ).
Thats the one. Jap performance with the style of a harley. Tough v twin. Plus if you buy the right model they are actually going up in value.I have nice mountains plus coastal roads close buy. Great area to ride. I was lucky as Australian muscle cars also experianced a boom over the last few years allowing me to make over $100,000 profit from a old commodore. I bought a nice bike and put the rest of my loans.This weekend im going fishing off shore, then a party at a friends. Tomorrow im skydiving then taking my dirt bike bush out to a old Mining town a few klms away. life is good.
All crap aside. These are very interesting times and if you are under 30 you are about to see a environment that who have not seen before. Am i worried. Yes. It would be stupid not to be. Am i happy with my position. Yes. I have a good buffer,secure job,50% LVR and loans approved to buy more if a bargain appears.Fact is life goes on,Bad times pass. You must look at this as a time to keep safe but also look for opportunities.
And also dont forget to enjoy what this country has to offer outside of investing. You dont have to be rich to enjoy everything.Although i did just buy a 996 ducati yesterday. Man i love this bike.
I like how key board heroes have all the answers to our problems. I know our top boys may not be the best but i trust that when they listen to all there advisers and take note of all the info WE DONT HAVE, they are able to come to a conclusion that is better for us than what the majority of us can come up with.
Every bit of information at the moment is getting torn apart on these forums and offered to those reading with a new spin. Its like reading one verse out of the bible and then creating a story from it that lasts hours( This happens with cults a lot. see the similarities) property is long term people.And for f@#k sake. Can some one please show me where there is a big group of people saying PROPERTY NEVER GOES DOWN IT ONLY GOES UP. I have never heard people say this exept for long term which i believe still holds true.
I believe the people saying this are sitting next to a unicorn and a few other mythical creatures that dont exist.ummester wrote:Devo,I understand some of your opposition to Scamp over-zealous doom and glooming but how can one derive FACT in a world where finacial gain is fueled largely by spin and specualation. The fact that there are no hard FACTS is very much part of the problem.
You know want I want, I want the tide to come back with quite a bit less money in it so we can all stop pretending that affluence matters and get back to being decent people. But like everyone else, any arguments that support it are still mostly specualation. In the same way that REAs boosting the market, die hard property optimists like harb and even balanced views like yours are still speculation,
This is my point exactly. There are no facts for what is going to happen in the future. When a newbie enters this site looking for info. I believe they should hear from both sides. That consists of facts,past history,relevent news and happenings and peoples ideas on what will happen next. But when they are bombed with information and told it 100% will happen. I do not believe that is right. When a individual from another country starts to tell someone there $500,000 house will be worth less than half in a year. I believe that to be wrong. Sure by all means explain why you believe this could happen but keep it real.
ummester wrote:Devo,I understand some of your opposition to Scamp over-zealous doom and glooming but how can one derive FACT in a world where finacial gain is fueled largely by spin and specualation. The fact that there are no hard FACTS is very much part of the problem.
You know want I want, I want the tide to come back with quite a bit less money in it so we can all stop pretending that affluence matters and get back to being decent people. But like everyone else, any arguments that support it are still mostly specualation. In the same way that REAs boosting the market, die hard property optimists like harb and even balanced views like yours are still speculation,
This is my point exactly. There are no facts for what is going to happen in the future. When a newbie enters this site looking for info. I believe they should hear from both sides. That consists of facts,past history,relevent news and happenings and peoples ideas on what will happen next. But when they are bombed with information and told it 100% will happen. I do not believe that is right. When a individual from another country starts to tell someone there $500,000 house will be worth less than half in a year. I believe that to be wrong. Sure by all means explain why you believe this could happen but keep it real.True, we don't know how it is all going to play out but most would have to admit that what the financial world is up against now is worse than any of us have seen in our adult lifetimes.
Scamp wrote:devo76 wrote:Just remember oil was going to be $2.00 bucks a litre now. OOPS its droped.
Interest rates will not drop. They will go up. OOOPS there droppingEverytime the gloomers predict something it changes and they have a excuse for the change. Boring
they will get it right eventually and i believe they will with lower house values but
50% drop average NO
Depression NO
Collapse the dollar currency NO
Head to the hills with your bag of seeds NOThese are the rants of a delusional mind. There like ogres huddled around a campfire predicting doom.
Things will get rough and they will have there moment in the sun( Or dark depending on there mood)
Then things will get back to normal and they will jump on the next impending earth killer. YAWN.AUD dollar is collapsing as we speak. Are you blind ? the dollar went from near 1 USD to 70USD.
It will drop more now that the RBA lowered 1% interest. Please do your homework before you post something. That's a 30% drop in the AUD dollar. If that's not a crash then please, tell me what is.Inflation ( not CPI ) in Australia is close to 15% now. That's rampant. Just check your food bills compared to last year. Please don't tell me you don't pay at LEAST 15% more, because you do.
Oil will be 2$ per litre. Especially with the 30 drop in AUD dollar and what's still to come. Fuel might be lower now, the only reason is that recession is hitting the world.
About the depression : Just hope you don't get there. Because recession is a 100% certainty. Ignoring this won't make it go away.
50% houseprice drop : Did I say it would drop 50% in less than 6 months ? Ofcourse not. In fact, I told you that the bottom would certainly not be earlier than January 2009, and with the recent actions by RBA and government, it will take longer because now it changed to a recession instead of an economic dip.
You will see, 50% houseprice drop will happen.Dropping interestrates : Yes you are right, I predicted interest rates to go up and they SHOULD have gone up, but they went down. This is completely illogical and has caught most economists by surprise. The drops so far in interest have resulted in a 30% ( !!!!! ) drop in the AUD and it just shows that the RBA has no clue on what they are doing. They have a different agenda. Do you think the AUD dropping is a good thing ? Think again. The drop in the AUD is going to cause massive problems for Australia in the short / medium AND long term.
Mind you : Dropping interest rates is done for a reason. In 1990 ( you remember, than recession Australia had to have ) RBA dropped interest rates like this. It caused 20% unemployment and loads of trouble for Australia.
Please, don't speak about things you have no clue about. If you think you were right with the drops of interest rates, this is a very short term, PANIC ACTION by the RBA.
House prices will now, more than ever, and with 100% certainty , drop 50%.
There is no doubt. Recession is coming, commodities ( australia's main export product ) have already crashed on top of 30% loss of the AUD dollar. I'm just telling you like it is, nothing different.
By the way, I'll let you in on a secret on the real reason the RBA has dropped the interest rates.
Mortgage resets.And guess what ? people won't 'save 200$ per month'. They will go from their locked in low interestrates of 6% to the 'new' interestrates of 8%. They will actually have to pay 400$ MORE than before. Thanks to the mortgage resets.
The RBA just wanted to make the blow a little less bad.
Instead of going from 6% to 9%, they will now go from 6% to 8%.
And the RBA has destroyed the only thing the Australians had ( their strong AUD ) by doing it.Please read what I wrote up here twice before you reply.
OK. 90% of the crap you just said i made no reference too.Aussie dollar crashing. Did i make reference to that???
Inflation ??? I said nothing about that.
Fuel will be $2 a litre. Well thats a bit open ended. I bet it will be $4 a litre one day too.
Economists didnt predict the rate movement. But that was the amount not the direction that caught them out.My point is clear. You come on hear and start vomiting up your take on things and pass it off as 100% fact.
Many of your so called facts have prooved to be wrong over the last few months.So what do you do. You readjust your doom calculater and vomit up a new spin on things.You do not 100% know what is going to happen as you keep saying.Your strike rate is getting worse each day.Yes we are in for a rough patch with dropping house values and a weaker economy. Bit shit that is like standing at the beach and claiming that the tide will come back in eventually. Tell us something we dont know. The rest of what you are saying is purly a estimated guess. NOT FACT.
Maybe you should offer your services to solve the worlds problems. Its always times like this that the armchair heroes come out to play.Ha ha ha. just as suspected. Things didnt pan out as he predicted so the boys at GHPC have a rethink. Develope a new story to explain a change and then start pushing that as new FACTS.
Here is my prediction for my area
10% to 15% drops so far
More drops of maybe 10%
Possible recession
Minning slowdown
House values to remain stable for up to 5 years.Now this is FACT everyone. dont dare argue with me.
Yes. Visit that site. It will open your eyes but not through the intelligent converstation.Many many disgruntled younglings that have not bought a house yet and want the market to crash so they can buy in.So they talk it down,cut and paste artical after artical and basically burn investers for destroying house prices for all. Yet they are happy to buy a house of a struggling family in the future with no remorse.Yes go and have a look. If you can filter out the crap that is biased there is actually a lot of good information. Just dont bad mouth there pin up boy Steve keen. You will be flamed very quickly.
Just remember oil was going to be $2.00 bucks a litre now. OOPS its droped.
Interest rates will not drop. They will go up. OOOPS there droppingEverytime the gloomers predict something it changes and they have a excuse for the change. Boring
they will get it right eventually and i believe they will with lower house values but
50% drop average NO
Depression NO
Collapse the dollar currency NO
Head to the hills with your bag of seeds NOThese are the rants of a delusional mind. There like ogres huddled around a campfire predicting doom.
Things will get rough and they will have there moment in the sun( Or dark depending on there mood)
Then things will get back to normal and they will jump on the next impending earth killer. YAWN.It does not matter what anyone thinks anyway. Scamp has spoken.
And westpac have passed on .8% of the cut. Now i thought they were not going to pass on any cuts
. Dont worry im sure there will be another analyisis and claim that there will be NO OTHER rate cuts after this. Goal post moves again. Ha ha ha
. Dont worry im sure there will be another analyisis and claim that there will be NO OTHER rate cuts after this. Goal post moves again. Ha ha ha
