Culburra ???

Building the average four bed two bathroom house with all the finishes would cost over $200,000 in many areas( just house no land). So even if you where given a block of dirt you would run close to going over the 4x ratio.
Now find a desirable block of dirt and the ratio will climb quickly.
Unless we see a major drop in new housing costs or free land. We will not see a 4x ratio(single income) . More likely a flattening or slight correction coupled with climbing waged will improve things but 4x may just be a distant memory. 6x + may be the new 4x.
Cheers

Property would have dropped if The government didn’t step in………. Do we really think they won’t do the same this time??? Of coarse they will. They may be a little more careful not to overstimulate but stimulate they will. To think they won’t is falling into the same trap.

I can’t recall all my posts but I have always felt that a correction would happen but not a crash. My last purchase in 2009 was with the expectation of minimal gains in the short term. Turns out it went up thanks to the double peak you mentioned.
To me a correction of 10% or so is to be expected after a good run.I just don’t buy into the crash . My backyard is still relatively affordable having had minimal growth since 2003( you could say a long slow hiss instead of a pop).and where you invest is where it matters.
Actually I would be quite happy with a slight correction as I am far from my borrowing limit and want more properties for my portfolio.
I know cycles have ups and downs and a knew that the down side may come into play with my 2009 purchase. I have 20 years minimum before I cash in so it was and still is well within my risk profile.
So in a nutshell a correction of 10% or so is calculated and allowed for.
A crash is unlikely but also survivable.
But with cashflow, a buffer and time on my side. I see nothing ahead that is out of the ordinary within the bigger picture.

Vocal minority having a cry. Thats all.
 The much larger quiter group( every home owner) will have a lot to say when/if things look like being effected by their boohoos.
You rarely hear from the happy. Just the unhappy.
 When was the last time you visited a website to let everyone know things are just rosey.

My point being this response is not suprising with house values where they are. In time values will level out and so will the bad press.

I think will be hard to get people on the side of Nowra here. Nowra would be relatively unknown. Where would I buy. Well Nowra for Starters because I live here. It’s not a little country town as some suggest and it has much going for it now and into the future.
It’s affordable and has an average rent return approaching 6%.

You could do a lot worse. But compared to Sydney it’s hard to pick. Massive market compared to a smaller one.

Tom
my agent has 500 rentals on there books. None available NONE. Newspaper shows families struggling to find anything. Workers moving to town living at there work. People paying rent a year in advance just to secure a place.

Sure there are estates on the outskirtsthat have room to expand at the developers whim. But the developers stop for a reason. There costs plus there margin = a block they can’t sell.

So your point is pointless.
Things will change eventually and how fast or big that change will happen is negotiable.

But people saying there is no shortage…. Open your eyes. Denial does not change the facts.

Nice post . Nice FIRST POST. Can I just ask why you bother on a property forum.
You know what. I hate golf but you will not find me on a golf course telling people.
So why are you here I’m honestly interested.
Do you want to save us …. Not likely.
Do you want to start crap…. maybe.
Are you angry about house values and feel that by pushing negative articals you might play a small part in inducing a property crash that you can proudly come back and lay claim to…. That’s the one I think.

Good luck with your predictions. Thanks for the heads up.

if they bought 2 years ago and lost money I would believe it. That is “in the last ten years ” also.
Honestly mate you did imply a ten year timeframe

All my properties bought in the last 10 years including PPOR. Im doing fine.
Total out of pocket expenses across all including costs is under $300 pw.

I have friends who bought their first place recently. Also doing fine.
Work mates doing fine
Neigbours doing fine.

Sorry i dont see the blood. Im sure its there but it is not the majority of cases thats for sure.

As i touched on in another post. One of my mates was going to give investing a miss but decided to buy a little over a year ago when everyone said run for the hills. Today he is sitting on a good chunk of equity and a neutrally geared property.
no blood there either.