Forum Replies Created
“People only have to look back at Melbourne 10 years ago to remember the correction that the property market went through there. It was in the order of 20 to 30% as well”. Once again you quote Crashy without checking the facts.
This is not true i lived in Melbourne during this time and the market didn’t drop anywhere like you said.”There was an article in the SMH about a year ago, showing charts of capital city house prices, and it was often mentioned throughout the article that prices in Sydney and melbourne dropped 30% during the recession. Maybe they didnt drop quite that much in your area, or maybe you stuck your head in the sand like everyone else. Hopefully the article is archived and one of us can find it.
are you sure you are going to come out with 130k?
have you considered CGT?
I agree with Michael re renting.
what percentage is land tax?
A little insecure are we? God forbid someone else apart from you the trading guru should have anything to say. What you have just done is the equivalent of Steve blasting someone here for not knowing as much as him. It’s just egotistical dick swinging.
“Whilst I am a technical trader and have been since the time before personal pc’s I have to cite the worlds second rich man Warren Buffett. Whilst our methods are vastly different you cannot argue with returns that have for several decades outperformed the S&P 500. The last time I looked his long term rate of return was 18%”
Like I said, fundamentals are for INVESTORS, not traders. Buffett is an investor.
“The notion that short term traders lose money and long term traders make money is not supported by quatitative evidence.”
Yes it is, in fact it has been published many times. many online brokers have stated that 90% of accounts opened are bone dry within 12 months. secondly, I said day-traders, not short term traders.
“This is somewhat of an exagerration, cfd’s have been around since 1989 in other markets and are analogous to single share futures. No instrument has yet replaced the fpo since they are they backbone of the secondary market, if Crashy’s statment were true then there would be no market, if there were no market then there would be no equity cfd’s”
Well you can argue exaggeration, the point I was making is that very few traders I know are choosing fpo’s to trade rather than CFD’s. CFD’s have only been in THIS country for 18 months or so. How long they have been present in other markets is irrelevant.
“Trading for a Living was written by Dr Alexander Elder not Eng. Elder a Russina psychiatrist is an interesting dinner compnaion, his tale of how escape from the KGB is fascinating. But having spent some time with the good Dr I am failry certain he does not trade.”
LOL…sensationalise and dazzle! Stroke that ego! Yes, my mistake, it was Elder, not Eng, got my E authors mixed up (god forgive me). The question of whether or not he trades, can be answered by a quote from his book:
“…every morning before trading I sit in front of the quote screen in my office and say: “good morning, my name is Alex, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account.”
Therefore, at the time of writing, he WAS a trader. I do not care if he is still a trader or not, the book has been written. Your claims of meeting him are irrelavant and you have not disclosed any information that was not contained in his book, which makes me wonder. From your behavior thus far, I suspect you saw the good Dr as one of his patients.
“Perhaps you could then tell us about how to integrate the shadow which is a Jungian archetype and which is something all successful traders have done.”
The Shadow is our ‘dark’ side, veiled and repressed, that contains much ‘hidden potential’, if we make peace with it. When we do not integrate the shadow, it remains a hinderance, it can erupt in outburst of rage, self and other abusive behavior. Yes I can tell you how its done, wait for my book.
“Hang on didnt you just say you cant trade on fundamentals yet you are recommending fundamental newsletters”
Perhaps you should read carefully before making such stupid comments. I am promoting investing in shares, not trading shares. Some people asked specific trading questions, which I answered.
“Mind you if you do the SIA courses you might come across someone like me who can teach you about derivatives pricing….a fascinating subject but of not that much use in the trenches.”
more irrelevant ego stroking! ps, i have done my courses bucko!
“If you want to find out someones level of trading knowledge there are a few simple questions you can ask.”
simple? mahahaha u eediot I dont have my text books to consult but here goes:
“Whilst these may seem overly technical they are a good guide to the depth of someones understanding about markets.”
the point being? If someone doesnt understand the answer OR the question, what is the point. You seem to be suggesting that only the best trader in the world should be asked questions about trading. which just reinforces my theory that you have an insecurity issue, though it could also be a messiah complex. either way, your critisism helps no-one.
1. Are the distribution of stockmarket prices leptokeurtotic or random.
leptokeurtotic theory, where for example if the move in price is up then there is an increased, albeit small chance of the next days price also being up. I did read somewhere that there is a fairly high serial correlation which indicates that the best way to predict tomorrow’s volatility is to assume that it will be similar to today’s volatility. This is all theory and cannot be proven, but you asked whether or not it was fact.
2. Optimal f presents us will a problem in money management. What is that problem?
the problem is that while bet size can theoretically reach infinity, in practice it is not possible to bet such large amounts. If you are using a betting system to trade with, failure is guaranteed. Is this question even relevant?
3. The Kelly equation which is the basis for all money management and interestingly enough the basis for betting strategies in blackjack has a fundamental flaw when applied to share trading. What is that flaw?
the flaw is that each hand in blackjack is a statistically independant event, whereas in trading each movement in price is related to the previous movement. could be wrong, but really what does it matter? not like any traders actually use that crap.
4. In options trading what is the measure of directional risk?”
the measure? well you could mean implied volatility, or you could mean risk margin, though its probably something really complex cos I know what an egotistic showoff you are.
What…nobody else is allowed to answer equity questions because you claim to know more? WHO CARES! If everyone here acted as immaturely as you, Steve would be the only one giving advice.
count me in
Geez, beating Harry! spose any real Harry Potter fan bought the book on day 1.
Steve didnt mention volume, but lets just say its 100k books sold so far. Thats 100,000 people out there competing for the last 0.0000001% of positive geared property in the country. Think about that.
Steve, need your permission to use your book as a source/reference in my book. Doubt you would turn down the extra sales. Also, some help re publishing, why did you choose WrightBooks? What happened with the book sales from this site….did you get a better deal from those? How easy was it to get the book published? How long did it take to write?
cheers
geez, a lot of posts since Sat morn.
got about 10 emails, none from the people who originally emailed me though. keep em comin
you wouldnt pay cash for a house, so why do it with shares? if you had $100k, use dealforfree and only invest 1/2 of it. that way, your LVR is 90% instead of 95%. Or if you are really chicken, invest 1/4 of it. That $25k still buys you $500k in shares, and the market would need to drop 20% before you were at margin. plus you get paid interest on the other 75k. but its better to just take out 25k in the first place, and top it up when a margin is called. (why are people so terrified of a margin call?) its no big deal, i get em bout once a week. money is coming and going out of the account frequently, they are pretty flexible about margin calls.
or you could just invest the money in plain old ungeared shares. (yawn)
when looking at possible future returns, its easy to look at recent returns and assume the same will follow. this however is usually the opposite. ovbiously a property boom cannot follow on top of another property boom. there are short term cycles and there are long term cycles, but they all revert to the long term average. its like flipping a coin, if you flip it 5 times you might get 4 heads, which you might say meant that the odds of flipping a head are 80%, which of course is incorrect. however if you flip it 5000 times, you would get closer to 2500 heads, or 50%. the higher the statistical figure, the greater the accuracy. we only have investment data going back 350 years, otherwise we would use 10,000 years. the first stocks came to be around 1650 but real estate values in europe have been recorded since 1082.
no fund that I know of, I would run one if someone lent me their dealers licence
like positive geared properties, positive geared shares do exist, just have to find them. the difference is, you dont have to beat anyone to them.
a lot of people emailing me about this, thought I better put it at top of pile again.
The greatest asset you have is YOUR ABILITY TO EARN AN INCOME, ie a job. You have sold your business, but can make money working as an owner builder. You have about $300k – $340k equity, which I would say is not enough to quit working. Buying the land and duplicating your success sounds like a good idea to me.
“Our aim is to reduce our mortgage by approx $100,000” why are so many people obsessed with paying off their mortgage? Its not like interest rates are 17%. At 6%, its better to invest any excess cash at say 9% (plenty of funds guarantee this) than to reduce your mortgage which is costing you 6%. The difference of 3% is well worth utilising.
re Steve’s book, if you think you can beat all the other sheep to the gold (assuming there is any left) good luck to ya. Im not buying the top of the market. If you want an alternative, buy positive geared shares on margin.the greatest risk in life:
not taking any risks at all
“would like to stop putting dead money into rent first”
who says its dead money?
even if you buy a place and live in it, you are effectively paying rent anyway. you always have to live somewhere. if you moved out you could rent the house out to someone else, but it would still cost you money, (and dont give me any positive gear rubbish, cos none exist currently) so theres really no difference. if you save the difference between renting and buying, then invest it, after 25 or 30 years you are $1m better off. Its better to earn 13% on your money than pay off debt costing you 6%. Think about it.
Rent, save, invest in managed funds, and by the time mortgagee sales are in full swing you will clean up.
geez you missed the best Einstein one:
“only two things are infinite……the universe and the stupidity of man…..and im not 100% sure about the former”
Alf,
thats sounds like a nightmare, much worse than I imagined.
you may be relieved to know however than in the last 2 years there have been some major changes to the industry. cold comfort I know, but may help others.
Advisors must now disclose any kickbacks, commissions, hidden fees, conflicts of interest and the like. All advice must be in writing, and a financial services guide given. They must state the name of their company, the licences required and held, advice they are allowed to give, BEFORE any advice is given. They are required to have professional indemnity insurance, which protects clients in the event of negligence causing financial loss.
Was this “advisor” licenced, qualified and insured? Did you check?
Never use an arranged solicitor or accountant. Get independant advice.
About 3 years ago my inlaws were approached by an “advisor”. She was not an advisor at all, just a shonk marketing over-priced negative geared QLD home & land packages. I sat in the background playing on the playstation, pretending I wasnt interested. After a while though the crap got so thick I couldnt stand it and confronted the woman. I wasnt an advisor back then, but knew a scam when I saw it. The money show has warned of this type of scam many times. There were hidden fees everywhere, one in particular was a $15k fee to her for making the sale. Also outrageous interest rates were used, rental income was unrealistic and they claimed to guarantee it. I could see how unsavvy investors could get taken in by it. She didnt appear to know very much at all, except how to sell overpriced crap to people who knew even less about investing than her. She said they had a deal with a solicitor and an accountant, and would fly them up to QLD, take them straight to the site, then away to sign their life away. Obviously she had been given a one day course and sent on her way. When I queried all the fees and rates, the woman became rather hostile and rude, and I came very close to picking her up and throwing her out the door, but it was not my house so I told the father what a scumbag she was being and asked him to get her out of my sight. To my amazement she continued the sales pitch on the way to her car.
Hi Alf
I would like to help if I can. Perhaps if you tell me exactly what he said (it should be in writing) I can investigate if he has broken the law. I cannot see how a tort of negligence can be excused simply because the advice was property related. Other unlicenced advisors might be excused, but not a licenced advisor doing things by the book.
email me [email protected]
Logic would say they are inversely related. When everyone wants to buy, nobody wants to rent, so rent prices fall. Vice versa when nobody wants to buy.
Then again in places where growth is slow & steady, rents should rise in line with growth.
sleep is for whimps.
oh wait, thats lunch
i found some parts of eagleby quite nice, go a few streets down and hit slumville. agents tell me they would be putting their money there, and they are the experts I guess.
