Forum Replies Created
- bardon wrote:Scamp wrote:This ofcourse is a worst case scenario, but in the end we might be better off without the USA than with them. The FED is the only cause of this massive global creidt problem, and they are doing everything they can to offload their problem to other countries.
I don't expect anyone to see the real implications of this crisis : But I can tell you , so far we have seen only the very beginning of what is to become the worst financial and economic crash in history, making the 1929 crash look like a breeze.
Things are not getting out of balance they are getting back in balance. Americas best days are now behind it. The US has had the lions share and had it to good for too long, cheap energy, world dominance, the worlds currency, the US used to be creative and synonomous with what is good now they are an example of the worlds worst, all this while BRIC nations are racing ahead.
Teh economic cycle is geting back to its long term balance.
I wouldn't count on America being down and out completely just yet. I agree with you on all things being on a cycle. Just look at Japan in the past at its peak and its state of economy now. US was on a peak the last few years and is just starting on a downturn and eventually some day even Dubai and the UAE will be the same as well.
On the same note, I think that Australia has also probably peaked with the resource boom over the last few years. Its troubling to find that even with the extremely high commodities prices, there are a lot of resource companies that are barely making ends meet (see recent report on AFR). This shows just how badly run a lot of these companies are – to be unable to capitalize on their basic products.
Just imagine if they have trouble now with peak commodities prices, how are they going to survive once the bubble burst?
There is a very high likelihood that in the event of a world commodities price slump, a lot of Aussie resource companies will start failing. The ripple effect across the stock market and housing will probably be felt for years if that happens.
Sounds like you're super keen on the place and you don't know how to hide it. I know of a few friends like that, and my dad is one of those as well. He's never gotten a good deal in his life. Always getting stiffed as they see how excited he is. I've heard that employing a buyer's advocate works well esp when you suspect dummy bidding.
Anyone who says gas prices will reach $8 has no understanding of real economics. Such statements are issued partly via projected growth rates in price increases which are straightforward projections without inputting any realworld constraints in their financial modelling – basically a lazyman's way of doing projections.
I think there is a chance that gas will hit $2, but hitting $8 is the equivalent of losing Russia and the Middle East oil fields due to armageddon. I have been trading oil futures for some time now, and I can tell you that quite a significant contributor to the increase in prices is due to market speculation by the big players. That may increase for the near future due to a lack of more attractive investments and volatility, but over the long term any commodities' prices will return to the mean. When the oil futures bubble burst, it will be as dramatic and painful (for vested players) as the dotcom burst back in 2001.
Scamp wrote:Don't invest in property. Stay out of it, don't commit suicide financially.
That's the only thing you need to know : Property is something to stay away from, just like shares.
Buy gold or save money on the bank, whichever you like, but do NOT buy shares or property.You reckon the market is going to fall further? Melbourne has been surprisingly resilient. Haven't budged at all from previous months' prices.
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Wow thats harsh. A couple decide that they dont want to spend there retirement dependent on a government pension and decide to maybe buy a Property as a retirement nest egg. And they are branded foolish and greedy. I better ring my pop who done exactly that and tell him how greedy he is. It would have been much more noble of him to just live of a pension.
That said yes you do sound like you are in a bit of a bind.Dont make any rash decisions. Just take on the info available here and then maybe seek some proffesional advice as the wrong choice in your position may cost you dearly.[/quote]
This is personal, but I don't believe there is any real value in such a thing as "professional advice". In general the more people know about a particular technique, the less useful it becomes (think -ve gearing). If they are so good, they would have done whatever they did quietly and made a ton of money themselves. I still think that the best way to invest is to always do as much homework as you can and form your own analysis. When you reach your own conclusion, to act on that. If someone says that they're not smart enough to understand a particular investment vehicle, then they shouldn't be touching that in the first place.
