Forum Replies Created

Viewing 20 posts - 1 through 20 (of 25 total)
  • Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29

    Thanks for that. I was hoping that the long term rates would be reasonably close to shorter term fixed rates but have found them to be much much higher which wouldn't make sense at all. The only winner would be the lending institute it would seem.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29
    C2 wrote:
    If, as some say, people start selling their houses because of no work then does this necessarily mean prices will drop considerably? 

    (1) There are investors waiting in the wings for bargains to come up and it is quite possible that these investors will bid against each other to secure these bargains and keep the prices from dropping too far. 
    (2) This coupled with low interest rates will also entice new investors with secure jobs to try and grab either these bargains or their first IP thus keeping the prices from dropping too far.
    (3) The drop in OZ dollar has created a very strong interest from foreign investors looking to get in to the OZ property market.

    Sorry mate, I'll have to disagree. In a falling market, especially one with expectations of further price drops, investors are precisely the class that will step away from the market. There's a saying that one should never attempt to catch a falling knife. Chances are, only the ones who are really desparate to buy, will buy. Most will try to rent to mitigate the risks.

    Low interest rates is only one piece of the puzzle. You need to consider why there is falling interest rates. The global growth engine is stalling. Demand from US is faltering which is slowing down growth all through the supply chain. Australia's actually worse off as we're literally at the bottom of the chain. That's why it hasn't hit us yet this year, but next year will be the kicker.

    "(3) The drop in OZ dollar has created a very strong interest from foreign investors looking to get in to the OZ property market" <- Can you substantiate this statement, because I have not seen any reports tha points to this?

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29

    I agree with you, once the new year rolls in, a lot of companies are looking at "right-sizing". Property prices can weather swings in interest rates/oil prices/etc but unemployment will be the killer I think. Most families with mortgages will not survive more than two months unempoyed. If we start getting a lot of distressed properties on the market that's when shit will really hit the fence likely.

    I don't think we can rely on immigration numbers either. When there is a lot of news on job losses, the migration flow in will slow down significantly. What's more, new immmigrants ar probably not the most loyal. Lets face it: most people are in Australia because A)jobs are plentiful B)pay is higher than most

    When you take the punch bowl away, I won't be surprised to see a reverse migration taking place. Witness Vancouver/Canada post-1997 as an example.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29
    wealth4life.com wrote:
    Yes the world is a changing place … in times of uncertainty it always pays to go back to the basics …

    I attended a seminar in Cronulla Sydney for a new network group that is setting up Network Clubs around Australia and involving the local communities to attend. One point was made that we lose of sight of the big picture and need to focus on happiueness  first when investing … very interesting …

    We need to build smarter housing and not huge 6 bedroom with big pools and huge mortgages …

    Just a thought … D

    I've been wanting to network with others who are interested in investing for a long time. Are these informal network clubs where you just get to know people or do you have to pay to network with other people?

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29

    Speaking of prices things still seem to be going strong in Vic. Just came back from attending 2 auctions and both houses got sold. Not that many people attending but the buying power and demand is still strong. I don't think people in Australia are climbing much of a wall of worry at all..

    Until commodity prices pop and companies go under and jobs are affected, times are prob going to be good still. Lets hope commoditiy prices stay just where they r right now.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29
    Tony B wrote:
    Re    Singapore

      "  With a maximum of 20% tax rate in Singapore, ZERO capital gains tax on property OR shares, and NO ESTATE DUTIES, it is extremely attractive as a place for wealthy investors who are savvy enough to see the benefits."

    Not to mention the babes.

    Maybe we should chip in and buy Kevin Rudd a plane ticket so he can get a few new ideas.  

    I second that!! In that hot climate.. the girls are known to be…. skimpy on clothes perpetually.. rrrrrrrrh~

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29
    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29

    No offense, but Duckster what you are advising is a very aggressive gearing strategy which is predicated on a rising market. Choosing to get deeper into loans is partially what is making the current housing downturn worse for a lot of first time familiies and the cause of a lot of mortgage distress and foreclosures.

    I believe that prudent investing and not over-extend oneself is always a sensible option.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29

    Ashish, what you are comparing is select parts of India whereas the starter of the thread is remarking about Australia as a nation. Taken as a whole and averaged out, India housing should be pretty affordable.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29
    Scott No Mates wrote:
    No two properties are directly comparable. How do you compare a 3 bedroom house on 600 m2 with a 2 bedder on 650 m2 which sell for the same price? You must compare like for like!  Basically you need to develop your building cost for each house, adjust it for depreciation/age then deduct it from price achieved. Deduct the cost of other improvements (garages, paths, landscaping etc). You are then left with a land cost (which still isn't comparable as you then need to consider amenity, slope, orientation, distance to services etc). Once adjusted, you can then get back to a $/m2 for the land. This will give you the basis for your land cost in an area (adjusted again for better/worse locations to the subject site), then just add a building etc (and depreciate to the required level).

    No offense mate, but you might be over-analysing it. There is a need for a single, straighforward metric that can instantly be used as a yardstick for most people, and median house prices is just way too misleading. I believe reporting on a per sq m basis leads to a more transparent comparison. With median prices used it can be very easily skewed but on a per sq m basis its a lot clearer what the overall trend is.

    I do agree with you on there being a lot of variables to prices being sold, but once per sq m is established in an area and generally known, for example toorak costing generally $1000 per sq m, then deviations from that measurement tends to be quite limited.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29

    Expensive or not isn't measured in real terms, its a measurement in relative terms. Simply put, the average income to home prices in Australia is close to 8 times, which makes it among the most expensive place to get a house compared to many other parts of the world where it is more like 3 times income.

    In absolute terms Australia is nowhere near the top ten list. Just look at prices around The Peak in Hong Kong and THAT is what we call crazy…

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29

    Mine are to short financials, short transport companies, short consumer discretionary stock options and long gold options. Wait for gold to pop, take up a long term put position on gold and maybe mint some coins from its slide from 900+ to mid levels.

    That, and buy my first home.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29

    If I am in your situation I would try to pay off the car loan first as the interest rate on that is at 13% and up. Your rental is mad cheap and something to be taken advantage of. The more capital you gain before you make your purchase, the less debt you will incur when you actually buy a house and the less financial worry as well.

    Too many people are encourage a very aggressive leveraged growth strategy which may have worked in a booming market but certainly not in a downturn like now. Don't be aroused by the fear of missing the boat for "explosive growth", you've seen the interest rates and the slowing economy at the moment. You can definitely take you time to get a dream home. Better to build up a substantial war chest first before that.

    P.S.  Your monthly income is pretty alright, but living expenses of 3 grand seems excessive. You will save a lot more if you are able to reduce that.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29
    rudyl wrote:
    Just curiously.  When looking at multiples of yearly income – anyone know what Singapore is?  I know their property is REALLY expensive.  And they seem to be doing well (certainly loads of buildings) :)

    I can probably answer that. First off – finite land. This is a country with only 700+ km sq, roughly the size of Manhattan, but with 4.6mi population. Same thing with HK or Tokyo or Manhattan, when you cram a lot of people into a very finite piece of land, that land is going to be very, very expensive.

    The economy is another contributing factor – Its probably the most successful nation at attracting foreign investments next to Hong Kong. With a maximum of 20% tax rate in Singapore, ZERO capital gains tax on property OR shares, and NO ESTATE DUTIES, it is extremely attractive as a place for wealthy investors who are savvy enough to see the benefits.

    Add to this an extremely efficient govt, low corruption, very strong prospects from IR projects in 2009 and very advance private banking facilities and you have all the ingredients to be an extremely successful nation.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29
    god_of_money wrote:

    clubhonda,
    Well, I subscribed to SMH for years and I did notice that 2008 winter is super thin.. may be just co-incidence????

    You might be on to something. It has been reported in some of the newspapers that there is a tug-of-war between the buyers and sellers at the buyers at the moment. Sellers know they won't be getting a good price if they list now and those who can afford to probably will not do so.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29

    Sati,

    You might have overextended yourself.

    To summarize what the others have said here, the decision to hold on not is really quite simple. Do you think your property will increase in value by more than what you are losing every month and whether you can continue to service the load?

    If the answer is yes, by all means hold on to it. If the answer is no, then sell it. This is really all it boils down to in a nutshell.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29
    god_of_money wrote:
    Certainly, the "Domain" pull-out @ Sydney Morning Herald newspaper is getting thinner and thinner….

    I noticed less listings these days as well. But then again it could be due to the weather. A lot of brokers are expecting more listings in Spring.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29
    reddy wrote:
    HI EVERYONE,

    I NEED HELP REGARDING MY PROPERTY , IN OCT 07 I BOUGHT A PROPERTY IN HOPERS CROSSING IN MELBOURNE WHICH IS MY FIRST PROPERTY. THE RENTAL MARKET IS GOOD IN HOPPERS CROSSING BUT CAPITAL GAINS ARE LESS I CAUGHT UP IN A SITUATION WHERE WETHER TO KEEP THIS PROPERTY OR SELL THIS PROPERTY AND BUY IN GOOD AREA WHERE CAPTIAL GAINS ARE GUD.IT WILL BE GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE PROPERTY OR SELL? CAN SOME ONE SUGGEST ON THIS ISSUE.

    REGARDS
    REDDY

    Not to be blunt mate, but Hoppers is a real s***hole. I would get out of that location if I were you. With its high drugs/hoons/crime rates and extremely outer suburban location, there are more attractive locations.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29
    Scamp wrote:
    L.A Aussie wrote:
    Oh, I forgot; you said to buy gold.
    Thanks for that pearl.

    You're welcome. Gold is still the safest investment in these times.
    I predict goldprice higher than 1100, possibly higher than 1200 by march 2009 ( write it down somewhere ). That's about 20% increase.

    Speak to you in January 2009 about that prediction.

    Sorry couldn't help getting sidetracked a bit, but you sound like one of those gold bugs lol… The biggest fuel for Gold prices right now is fear. Fear is basically the main driver pushing gold to its recent high. Underlying demand for the commodity itself isn't really there. Its not a bad thing to invest in for the short term, but I would get the hell out of it once the US markets bottoms out.

    Personally I'm waiting to go long LEAPS on gold puts once volatility stabilises.

    Profile photo of clubhondaclubhonda
    Participant
    @clubhonda
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 29

    One thing you may not be aware of is that the BLR (base lending rate) in Singapore is more like 3-4% according to my mate. With that kind of interest rate, a lot of properties here can turn +ive gearing easily. Add to that the strength in AUD/SGD that's not bad.

    Having said that, I think for the near term its safer for an overseas buyer to put their money in a AUD term deposit then risk it in property (fAUS property seem to be in a tug-of-war at present). I just spent a whole day today looking at over a dozen houses, and it is apparent that the market has gone a lot softer. Some of the properties are taking 20-30k off their initial asking prices 2-3 mths ago.

Viewing 20 posts - 1 through 20 (of 25 total)