W-W-WHAT??!!  Falkner, come to me with some respect my man!  I'm a real estate agent.  I NEVERRRRR EVER ONCE TOLD A  LIE!! 

Let's be clear as to who is capable of qualifying for No-Income loans.  NINA (No Income No Asset Verficiation) does NOT exist…ANYWHERE….IN THE WORLD!!  Unless it's hard money. .  SIVA does exist (Stated Income / Verify Assets).  This is not available to W-2 employees, however if you are a 1099 independent contractor AND a business owner, then you have a chance of qualifying for HCSB's program for SIVA.  You need 35% down and 12 months of reserves put in escrow.  The rates suck too.  It makes no real investment sense to use this type of loan in my opinion.

Show me a lender who does W-2 employees on a Stated Income loan with competetive rates, and I'll show you a portfolio lender that won't last 3 years…And that's being generous.  Fannie/ Freddie won't offer this product anytime soon and if the economy is lucky, never ever again.  You want a house.  Show us you can afford it.  These subprime loans almost wiped out the US Economy by itself!  Ain't happening on a concerning level in my lifetime.  I would say in Jay Hinrichs lifetime, but he's old and that's not sayin much…   COME ON JAY, I'm joking   Wednesday afternoon humor

My brother's fund absolutely killed it the last 2.5 years in CA with hard money rehab funding.  They started exiting that market though about 4 months ago with concerns that prices are getting too crazy.  You see that too?  I've seen some files and it reminds me of each area I know the market.  Investors swooping in and OVERPAYING on almost everything.  It's fueled preconstruction whispers.

I love Bucky Showalter.  I met him many times when I played and he is a very smart man.  I wouldn't put it past him to take Balt to a World Series in the next 3 years if he stays.  Yanks keep grinding despite being old and injured. 

So Florida relies on external driving factors?  Yeah I can live with that.  Employment is always a leading indicator.  UP.  Population growth is typically 1.5% annually.  UP to 5% for consecutive years (although I don't think that's sustainable, I believe we will see 2.5% consistently until 2030)… Bankruptcy's DOWN.  Your chart on BK's certainly show Florida as one of the tops in filings, however Florida showed one of the biggest improvements in lesser BK filings.  From 2011 to 2012, BK's are down 20%.  In fact, if you take Miami-Dade County out of the equation, the improvement numbers would be far more dramatic.  From a  micro perspective, SW Florida from Tampa to Naples is showing the strongest economic improvements in FL. 

Yup, Hertz is hurting NJ and other areas by closing up shop, but the long term economic effects will undoubtedtly be positive for a company who is looking to consolidate in the short term to expand in the near future.  Campbell's Soup is doing the same thing.  So is Merck Pharmaceuticals and so are many other Fortune 1000 companies.  The firms are well funded again and will build Headquarters full of state incentives to build energy efficient campuses and offer employment to the LOCAL workforce.

Tourism in 2012-2013 season is near record numbers dating back to 1995.  Construction prices are up 15% since November and expected to be up across the board by much more in 18 months.  Investors of Multi Family is where the smart money is in Florida right now, a huge hedge against inflation which is definately going to be happening.

Freck:  Your charts are misleading because it doesn't show annual improvements.  Lastly, when does a Fortune 300 firm Headquarter relocation happen on an "everyday basis" as you say?  You're a jokester and in my professional opinion can't be taken seriously here.

For 3 years I told investors NOT to buy in FL dating awhile back and it was before the GFC while I was working with a bank on the executive side when I got a feel that the craziness was not sustainable..  I called it the day I saw a school teacher in Michigan on a 40k fixed income qualify for 3 homes in Florida.  I don't mind telling people NOT to buy.  I can do that because I represent institutions on distressed dispositions so no matter where the pendulum swings, I have business.  I'm not a cheerleader where my pitch is to buy all the time.  It's timing and it's now. 

Freckle –

I can't even dignify your imbeselic responses sometimes and I've stuck up for you for awhile here.  You just proved to me you're just a troll.  Where did you read they are shifting 700 jobs from NJ? It will be less then that, but the overall job creation in FL will be well over 700 The president of my firm is on the committee for the Economic Development Office which directly assisted Hertz land in Florida, in fact she knew who the company relocating was when the anonymous negotiations with county and state were ongoing and in a sales meeting 2 weeks ago she discussed the research that went into this and why a huge company is likely selecting SW FL for a new HQ.   The trickle down effect will be even greater.  The struggling retail and office industry will certainly pick up steam and the Coconut Point Shopping Center which has struggled for 2 years will get a huge shot in the arm.  After Hertz announced their change, a manufacturing company just went hard on a building in Lehigh Acres to create 250 jobs.  A tech company is committing to 400 more jobs.  Direct impact from Hertz.  Also, another important reason they chose SW FLorida…Their research showed that the workforce is highly educated and underemployed.  They have assessed that each new employee in Florida, they would save an average of $13,000 in salary from what they paid in NJ to offset cost of living.  Multiply that by 700 jobs. 

Chico's, the areas second largest empoyer just assisted Florida Gulf Coast University on a partnership with the Fashion Institute of Technology in NYC which will be a huge boost to new graduates in SW Florida looking for NYC education experience. 

Keep on moving your deck chairs freck

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/05/07/hertz-headquarters-relocate-lee-county/2140561/

http://www.bizpacreview.com/2013/05/07/coke-announces-2-billion-investment-in-florida-citrus-land-67293

These are 2 articles where 2 major Fortune 300 companies are investing in Florida.  Where?  My own backyard.  This is very exciting for the local economy which has already spurred interest from developers.  Our inventory of localized vacant commercial and favorable land use properties are practically all tied up with developers since these announcements.  We have a massive interest from ALF developers (assisted living facility), multi-family, etc. 

Florida provides low cost of living, emerging and re-emergine metropolitan areas, and no state sales taxes.  To boot, you also get to be within minutes of some of the most reknown beaches and tourism areas in the world.

Freckle – Of course the numbers are based on projections.  If there was more of a guarantee then projections in real estate, everyone would be a bazillionaire.  There is calculated risk in investing.  I'm basing my inflation numbers off of a bell curve analysis of what has happened over 100 years and factoring that into trends I've seen over the last 10 years..also fed rate guessing, inflation, etc…. It's not easy coming up with 3% inflation and feeling comfortable using that number.  It's not arbitrary, it's assessed.  You may use a different number.  The purpose of this spreadsheet was to give insight as to how I evaluate properties, which could be different from you. 

Trust me.. This spreadsheet is very very similar as to what the big players use here.  Losing is an alternative to winning and being good at what you do combined with guesstimating figures based on knowledge can alleviate the risk.  Nothing more.  Like I said previously, I've made business decisions and lost a bundle….but I was ok with that going in because I was able to quantify average risk.  I made what I thought was an educated decision and lost.  Big deal.  This is my life, and I'm sharing how I go about it for me and what my clients expect of me.  It's simple.  No need to complicate it more then this.  If you can't make an educated decision after using this spreadsheet, then good luck to you.

When I said "Education without Application Nets you Nothing", that means physically buying something or applying your education to make a decision NOT to do something.  It can go either way, but if you don't invest and can't come up with a solid plan that includes inflation, discounted cash flow models, discount rate, then stick to your day job.  I've lost before and I'll lose again.  Fortunately I'm plus more then minus.