Forum Replies Created
SNM, you are on the money. The reason i asked for clarification (i'm a card counter from way back to my uni days) is that it seemed to me that perhaps this Aussie Rob guy was making a comparison between share trading and gambling, in that money management and stop losses are the way to riches.
If this was the case then i would ignore EVERYTHING else he had to say as it shows a complete lack of knowledge of probability, risk, ROI and so on and without even a basic grasp of these concepts you have no place even trading Monopoly money, nevermind teaching others!
I may have misunderstood however….
shanes388 wrote:You win only slightly more trades than you lose but through managing probabilities and $ risks you come out ahead. Casinos and poker machines work the same!!Can you clarify what you meant by this statement? Are you claiming that you can be a long term winner by playing casino games and the pokies simply through loss management etc or were you simply saying that's how the casinos etc make their money? Was just a bit ambiguous.
Cheers
Sorry to dig up an old thread but i wonder if any of the entities mentioned here may have been involved?
http://www.police.qld.gov.au/programs/crimePrevention/eCrime/scams/sportsArbitrgeInvstigtn.htm
snaper wrote:All the talk around this area is about if/when proper public transport will come out this way, and personally I think North Lakes is getting so big it may very well happen in next 5 years. Certainly out west (Springfield lakes, towards Ipswitch I believe this almost a reality)When it comes to public transport in Brisbane i wouldn't be holding my breath, just ask the Redcliffe residents who have been waiting for their proposed train line for 20+ years!
I think i'd be too scared to take it for a run, i'd be more than happy enough just to be in the same room as one!
It would have to be by far the rarest of the old school Aussie cars, and there have been some rare ones… The VL SV F20 (i guess VL's can be called old school now!) had only 4 examples also, 2 that were sold to the public and 2 that were reserved for the HSV execs of the time, but due to it's obscurity and the fact that it never made an appearance on the track hasn't appreciated nearly as much as the GTHO's.
If he owns the green one he would most likely be the only person in Australia who could lay claim to owning the only production vehicle (of any kind) in existance! I did a bit more digging, apparantly there was an unconfirmed offer of $2.5 million on one of the remaining 3 at some stage, which was declined. Perhaps it's the same guy? If not it gives you an indication of what it's worth.
Wonder what other toys he has? I've always dreamed of owning the big 3 Holden Group A cars, the VK, VL and VN SS Group A's, but i'd be happy enough to own even one of them in my lifetime, preferably the blue meanie (VK)!
Lalibella wrote:Well ,Ford Phase 4 GTHO Falcon actually. Great to drive to work each day……
My brother just met a guy who bought one in the seventies for 20K.
Has sat safely in his garage since then, rarely driven.
Now worth…..? anyone's guess.
Google it.Far out, if it's genuine it would be worth well into the 7 figure range given that Phase 3's have gone for high 6 figures, although the muscle car boom is now well and truly behind us.
There were only 4 Phase 4's produced from memory, and only one of them was a production car, the other 3 were race cars. I believe one of the race cars was destroyed leaving only 3. If it's red it will be one of the 2 remaining track cars, the only production P4 was green.
You would have to look into it's authenticity first before you got excited though, there are 10000 mock ups out there and being such a rare example, very few people would be able to label it as authentic without a great deal of research although 20k in the 70's was a substantial sum of money so you would hope that the buyer made sure it was the real deal! I had a mate who had a kitted VL Commodore and got very excited when Walkinshaws started fetching near 100k, an 'expert' had told him that to be a Walkie it simply had to have a Walkinshaw kit on it! And it wasn't even a complete kit! Was red (Walkies only came in Panorama Silver) and get this, it was an auto straight 6! He thought he was going to be rich lol, well i shouldn't laugh but that level of gullibility (is that even a word?) is pretty amusing!
The car i'm currently driving is a 1999 Holden Commodore S Pack factory supercharged.
I saw it advertised on Ebay just after it was listed with a starting price of $1800 and i emailed him hoping his reserve would be around $4500-$5000 but not really expecting it to be…. I then got an email back saying he would sell it today for $1500! I dropped everything and hastily made arrangements to go up and inspect the car, i got there and it was absolutely immaculate besides a tiny amount of the usual paint fade on the spoiler and to top it off, it was a one owner car with full logbooks which wasn't even mentioned in the ad! I did a REVS check and couldn't hand over the money quick enough!
For roadworthy it needed a new steering rack (60000km rack off Ebay for $70) and 2 engine mounts (about $100) and it took about 2 hours of my time to fit. So for just over $2000 including parts, repairs, RWC and rego i got an immaculate 1 owner car that is worth around $8000! ($9500 according to my insurer). Just the engine and box alone are worth around double what i paid for it.
By far my best ever bargain, i just wish property investing was that easy!
Hi ToWhomItMayInterest, are your defaults paid? Unpaid? Currently being repaid etc? While there is no such thing as a good default, a default which has been paid is seen as significantly better than an unpaid default. Another factor that comes into play is the recency of the blemishes, for example, if all defaults were paid in full 3+ (or another arbitrary timeframe) years ago some lenders will ignore smaller defaults on the basis that you have effectively 'done your time' and you are now a worthwhile risk. While yours aren't small defaults, they aren't enormous by any stretch of the imagination.
Unpaid defaults will hurt though, it won't necessarily exclude you from obtaining finance but the interest rates will be sky high and the LVR's low. You mention CBA granted finance some time ago so i'll take a wild stab at the dark and assume they are paid? I certainly can't imagine CBA overlooking 3 unpaid defaults, regadless of size. If they are unpaid, could it be that they were listed as unpaid after you obtained the finance?
As for removing defaults, the bad news is you can't unless you can demonstrate that there was an error in listing. Defaults are removed from your credit history 5 years (in most cases) from the date they were listed.
If the defaults are paid, you will probably find these will not preclude you from some mainstream lenders (accompanied by a satisfactory explaination) but if they are unpaid you are going to either go to a non conforming lender and pay through the nose, pay the defaults and wait a little before your next application so you can demonstrate change financial behaviour, or wait 5 years from when they were listed and wait for them to drop off the bottom of your credit report.
Best of luck
Jamie
The vital piece of info missing here is whether your 210k in shares was funded by a margin loan?
If your shares are heavily geared, you are going to have problems (obtaining finance) until you clear some debt, but if your shares are unencumbered you have options (so to speak!)
Let's assume you have no margin loan for the purposes of this example. From the sounds of your description it seems like little, if any, of the debt is deductible. If this is the case, you will be paying high rates of interest, particularly on the CC's. Let's use round figures and say the average % across your entire debt is 12%p/a. For your shares to 'outperform your debt' (for want of a better term) they will need to return more than 12% (dividends + capital growth + franking credits). In the current market this is highly unlikely, and maybe it would be in your interest to liquidate some, or all of your portfolio.
If you liquidate your entire portfolio at it's current value and put all proceeds towards clearing your debt, this leaves you with 30k debt which is all well and good but it still leaves you with no deposit/funds for costs etc.
Perhaps an option to consider would be to liquidate your portfolio but put perhaps 150k towards your debt. This obviously leaves 60k cash but 90k debt remains. Depending on the individual debts, this could put you into a position to service a considerable loan and also have funds for the deposit and costs. Credit cards are the killer when it comes to banks assessing servicability so knocking your credit card debt on it's head before all else is usually a sound strategy. If you rid yourself of CC's altogether your servicability will increase dramatically.
I'd still say 600k is overly optimistic with 90k debt, but with 60k cash and 110k p/a you would get reasonably close. Of course if the shares are secured this makes this option impossible, but it's worth putting out there.
alexz1011 wrote:Thanks for the replies guys. My dad has also just called to say that he could only afford giving me exactly $360k. No more. So I need to get a mortgage of around $100k. Any of you could recommend some home loan products for me to consider that might suit a loan of $100k? I have some savings of $40k, I am now earning $45k pa. I want to pay off the mortgage asap, and I want to avoid paying any annual fees if possible. I know I have to talk to a broker regarding this kind of thing, and I will actually. It is just that I am trying to understand how is everything at this stage so the next time I can be less stressful, and know something more. Thanks.With savings of 40k, you will be absolutely laughing…
Obviously there are a multitude of brokers out there willing to offer their services, but if my opinion counts for anything i'd certainly recommend you at least speak with Richard. He is one of the few brokers around that really understand property (and structuring finance to suit) as opposed to basically just selling you a product. He also volunteers considerable time and freely offers advice on this forum (and others).
Please note this isn't a personal recommendation as i have never personally dealt with Richard, but there are many happy clients on this forum alone.
Beaten to the punch by Richard. My apologies!
Best you listen to his advice rather than mine anyway
Alan i have to disagree with you on a few points.
Pending any probationary period that may be in place, i'd say that alexz1011 would certainly find mainstream financiers would lend the amount in question. There is certainly sufficient income to service a loan of that size (unless there are other large debts we are unaware of) and with a very low LVR, most lenders would see this as very low risk (assuming a satisfactory credit history). Many lenders like to see at least a portion of the deposit as being 'genuine savings' but in a scenario such as this i dare say the strings could be pulled a little. You also mention age, i may be missing something but i cannot see the OP listing their age, only that they are a 'newbie'. Age generally is not a factor, in fact it is an offence to discriminate on the basis of age. One thing i could suggest is perhaps the OP could be in their position for a little longer in order to consolidate the application. Even 3 months looks better than 2 on an application, if you had a property in mind perhaps you could negotiate a longer than normal finance clause in order to be in your position a little longer when you actually formally submit?
It's not a given that finance could be obtained, it depends on credit history, previous field of employment (if any) and so on, but i'd strongly disagree with the With your age and length of employment, no bank is going to look at you for any size loan in this climate, you will need to wait for things to change or you have more than two year continued employment statement.
As for being eligible for the FHOG, whether or not your father gifts you the deposit, or expects repayment, has no direct effect on eligibility as far as i know. As long as your father does not have an 'interest' in the property, you will be eligible. The OSR (or equivalent) does not concern itself with the origin of the deposit, rather it looks at whether all relevant parties are eligible.I can't comment on taxation implications, but as far as financing the property goes, you should have no problems at all. As for the FHOG application if you pay cash for a property, it is a simple matter of having a few documents witnessed by a JP, signing a few papers and posting the application off and having the funds arrive in your bank account within a couple of weeks.
Good luck, and all i can say is i wish i was in your position when i bought my first property!
Jamie
Ok maybe i'm cynical, but i'd be very wary of this offer. It sounds to me that they simply wish to purchase an option on the property.
My parents in law recently had their house on the market and were bombarded with offers of 'i'll pay you $10,000 today and the asking price in 2 years time and in the meantime i'll pay rent at market value'
In my view it's simply a ploy to hedge their bets. If they have been refused finance now, what makes them so sure they will get it in 12 months time in a declining market? It sounds slightly odd that they can't get finance, even given that it's a rural property. They obviously have at least 25k in cash readily available, someone with that sort of liquidity could no doubt lay their hands on a bit more and even though you don't mention the purchase price, at $130pw rent, it can't be a huge amount. In addition if they are first home buyers as Richard said, they have more than $40,000 to contribute to a deposit which you would think would be enough in all but the most exceptional circumstances.
You have already stated it's less than what you want to accept, why would you essentially want to accept the same amount but in 12 months time? If the property is genuinely hard to move definately try the vendor finance option as mentioned above.
WJ Hooker, with respect, you might want to research the term 'Martingale System' because this is effectively what your staking plan is.
I do not profess to be a professional gambler, however i have considerable experience in the area of probability, expectation (negative and positive) mostly gleaned from my years as a part time card counter.
Mathematically it is absurdly simple, given enough time for the statistical advantage/disadvantage to kick it, you can ONLY make money by betting into a positive expectation. There is no way around although there are literally millions around that will disagree and will sell you their 'system' for $19.99….
The fact that you keep increasing your bet until you win your $20 stake does NOT make it a positive expectation bet. In fact, if you are betting with the various TAB's and bookies, with their take of around 15%, you are in fact effectively losing 15% every time you place a bet with them! (barring any 'inside' knowledge that will usually manipulate the odds into a prohibitive quote in any case).
Martingale's and those systems closely related rely on one thing, many small wins, and i'll give you that much, if you follow this system you will have many small wins. BUT……. sooner or later you will hit a losing streak that you won't have the capital to overcome, or the bet you are required to make is of such a large amount you cannot get the whole bet on without it either being refused or manipulating the market to a degree where it is a complete waste of time.
I'll say it again, the only way you win gambling is to continuously bet into a positive expectation. For example card counting (dependent on the rules and conditions) is a positive expectation technique. Granted there will be times by either design or necessity you will be betting into netagive expectations, such as when the true count is neutral or negative, but you negate this by placing small, or no bets at this point and you capitalise on the positive counts by proportionately increasing your bets in line with expectation (modified Kelly Criterion). This in turn results in an overall positive expectation.
Progressive systems, can NEVER work unless the bets are PE in the first place in which case you can then use Kelly Criterion to capitalise on these opportunities with far great efficiency than any progressive method.
Sports arbitrage betting has been around for a long time. In theory it sounds great, but there are MANY pitfalls. To list just a few…
1. Arbing often relies on very small margins, therefore a substantial sum must be wagered before a decent amount can be returned. As you have already pointed out Terry, you need accounts with an enormous number of bookmakers to be able to snag the occasional arbing opportunity, but unless you have a virtually unlimited bankroll you are going to run into problems. What happens when you only have $100 in the account of a particular bookmaker when you need to make a $10000 bet? Sure you may have 10 times that invested in say 100 bookie accounts, but transferring funds in and out can be very time consuming. Chances are by the time you have transferred the required funds into the account, the juicy odds are long gone. Remember you aren't the only person playing this game!
2. With the large amounts needed in order to generate even a moderate return, coupled with the volatility of sporting/racing markets, you risk losing a large amount of money simply by normal market movements. It is entirely possible that once you have placed one (or more) bets, that the odds on the other bet(s) have changed, making an arbing opportunity impossible. You have then opened yourself up to a guaranteed loss, rather than a win, or having to simply let the original bet ride, not fun!
3. Not all bookmakers have unlimited funds at their disposal! Your 'software' may require a large bet, but if the bookmaker in question will only take say $500 on a certain event it makes it next to impossible.
4. Bookmakers are well aware of arbitrage betting. If you are found to be a successful arbitrage punter, your account will be restricted or cancelled completely. Bookies do share information about successful punters so if you are successful for any length of time you will find the number of bookies willing to take your bets reduced enormously. This obviously majorly impacts the success of your arbing venture. A small pool of bookies to choose from = failure in this game.
In any case there are sites out there that will provide you with ample info to exploit arbing opportunities for free, or for a negligible price. Upwards of 10k is absurd. To make any kind of return with that initial outlay you would have to place enormous sums of money to exploit the 1-5% margins you could typically expect, and as already pointed out, there are very few bookmakers that have the capital to regularly take such bets, and you can be assured that although their odds might be competitive, they certainly won't feature regularly in arbing opportunities! They didn't accumulate such a large amount of capital by being stupid….
Finally, arbing is something best done manually, do you really want to trust software written by some unknown on the other side of the world with large amounts of your cash? One simple mistake will wipe away your entire advantage, and then some.
Arbing is possible, but incredibly hard work and very stressful! It is absurd to think that anyone could claim that it is as simple as 'setting and forgetting' some software! If anyone is keen to give it a try, i recommend they subscribe to one of the free sites, or one with a minimal fee ($10 a month or thereabouts), with a modest bankroll (that they can afford to lose) and see just how difficult it really is. As has been said, if it really was that easy nobody would be selling their 'system'!
businessglobal wrote:I would probably look Beenleigh, Eaglby, Slacks Creek, Marsden/ CresmeadGood area, proven growth, strong rental demand and close to SE Freeway and core South side employment bases.
Yikes! I hate to pick Kylie, but the suburbs you have listed are unquestionably amongst the worst areas in SE QLD! I fail to see how anyone could possibly spruik these suburbs as being in a 'good area'…. Unless you consider a 'good area' to be one with unbelievably high crime rates, extremely high unemployment (when compared to to the rest of Brisbane) poor capital growth and even poorer tenant quality.
While this is a very generalised view of the areas mentioned (i'm sure there are plenty of solid, respectful long term tenants, but you would have to wade through 10 miles of rubbish to find them in that area) i venture to say only persons with a vested interested (ie RE agents) would be recommending these suburbs as being in a 'good area'.
My opinion, stay away from ALL of the suburbs mentioned! They are much cheaper than comparable properties elsewhere in the SE for a reason….
As a broker based in Brisbane myself, i’d be lying if i didn’t say i’d appreciate all the business i could get…
However being only a relatively inexperienced broker and also not a great contributor to this forum (yet) morally i don’t feel i have the right to trawl for business on this particular site.
Kylie, while you may well be an exceptional broker with many years of relevant experience, Richard has been on this forum for some time and has the runs on the board when it comes to displaying the depth of his knowledge.
He has helped many on this forum, myself included, and asks nothing in return. He is also an astute investor, something which many brokers cannot claim to be, or even if they do claim that, they have little evidence to back up their claim.
I therefore have little hesitation in recommending Richard also. His overall knowledge of all things mortgage (and investing) related is exceptional and the countless hours he has spent offering advice to basically everyone who asks on this forum in my opinion entitles him to be recommended whenever a potential client requires assistance.
Kylie, you may well become a particularly valued and respected member of this forum and i hope that you do so, but at this stage i believe Richard is the man for the job simply because he does what he does very well, and he also gives selflessly on this forum.
Cheers
Jamie
In fact reading back over happy customer’s post, several parts seem suspiciously similar to the S&P script. Hmmmm.
Just a wild guess, but perhaps ‘happy customer’ may be happy because he/she is somehow affiliated with S&P…..
I find it hard to believe anyone could have anything positive to say about them.
