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    I suppose I like to look at it this way-if Im wrong I will still be rich,  BUT if Im right  I will still be rich, but many here will be broke…so Im in a no loose situation…are you?

    Have a good day :)

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    Scuba37 wrote:
    HAHA Classic! Honestly I would love to know what you guys (Blogs and Scamp) do and where you guys come from?? I have a sneaking suspicion you are the kind of people who keep coming up with excuses for not ever investing in anything just drag others down who are trying to get ahead in life.  If you both claim to know so much about the future why didn’t you both buy half a dozen properties in W.A 10 years ago or but $100,000 dollars worth of Midwest shares 2 years ago at 69c (currently worth $7.00)? I can guarantee you wouldn’t be sitting behind a computer screen now from some dimly lit office claiming to know something about the economy. You might be more like me and some of the other people on here who are feeling positive about the future due to doing our research and also understanding the basic rule of investing” There are always opportunities to make money in any economy you just have to get out there and find them” I wish you both the best of luck you will need it with your predictions!

    You would be surprised who and what many of the people on this site do!! Lets just say I base my research and beliefs on more than hope or realestate agent spin.  Try reading some of my posts einstein-Im sure you will feel embarrased and realised what a fool you are lol No Im not the type who is to 'scared' to invest, quite far from it actually. But Im not so stupid to invest in something at the peak of its cycle, especailly when everything is telling me its going to fall-maybe thats your speciality?

    Funny how you mention investing in shares-as a matter of fact just so you can sleep soundly you will see in my old posts I sold a few of my investment properties and put the money into the stock market. From just that move alone I can garauntee I have made more money in the last 3 months than you would have in the last ten years lol gee maybe I do know something about the future?? Nah I just dont have your silly 'buy property-its the only way to make money everything will be o.k' rose coloured glasses on…

    So you keep up the good work chump!! Im quite happy with how I have gone over the years, are you? Smart money moves where the highest returns are, why anyone would be buying properties now is beyond me? But you keep having feel good feelings about the future, Im sure thats how all the rich people in the world made their money ;)

    BTW, how much money have you made over the last few years? I would like to compare my bank balance from my 'dimly lit office' :)

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    Scuba37 wrote:
    Oh for God sake I hope they haven't let you breed!

    Well the lack of opposable thumbs didnt stop your parents…

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    Dont worry, be HAPPY :)

    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23765169-5005961,00.html

    "Jobless queues to grow"

    "Growth is slowing at a time when inflation is rising, which will also put household under additional financial stress as living costs soar and some main breadwinners lose their jobs. "

    Hang on, wasnt this exactly what I was saying?? Maybe they dont know about the money tree the majority of the population hvae planted in their back yard??

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    WIth such a 'rental shortage' why cant you just increase the rent? Supply v demand surely would allow this?

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    devo76 wrote:
    I dont think anyone is in denial in regards to oil and its longevity. Its just that most dont believe the world will come to a screaching holt in the near future. You appear to be one of those people living in fear of what lay ahead. Not caution,fear. Just as war and famine etc etc dominated the polls for whats going to kill us in the past.But dont let me stop you. Start chucking statistics up now as im sure you will. Maybe its time to start building a bunker and stock it with fuel. Mad Max becomes a reality. God help us all.

    I dont think ormeau is saying the world is coming to an end. My interpretation is that all you bly sky dreamers seem to blindly believe property prices will continue to sky rocket, and heaven forbid ANYONE who says property prices will fall. Yet none of you want to even consider the effect peak oil will have on the economy??? Sure it may not send us spiralling into a depresssion blah blah blah BUT is sure as hell could quite easily put us into a situation where property values will not only stagnate but will also fall.

    Why do you find it so hard to believe that people with massive mortgages (and there are lots these days-how many can afford cash for a typical $650-$700k house?) will be able to cover spiralling costs ontop of their already stretched budget??

    Try to keep it simple-house are ALREADY at record levels of unafordability, yet even when faced with spiralling inflation, fuel and food costs you think people will STILL be able to find even MORE money to support rising property prices?? It stagers beleif….

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    devo76 wrote:
    I dont think anyone is in denial in regards to oil and its longevity. Its just that most dont believe the world will come to a screaching holt in the near future. You appear to be one of those people living in fear of what lay ahead. Not caution,fear. Just as war and famine etc etc dominated the polls for whats going to kill us in the past.But dont let me stop you. Start chucking statistics up now as im sure you will. Maybe its time to start building a bunker and stock it with fuel. Mad Max becomes a reality. God help us all.

    I dont think ormeau is saying the world is coming to an end. My interpretation is that all you bly sky dreamers seem to blindly believe property prices will continue to sky rocket, and heaven forbid ANYONE who says property prices will fall. Yet none of you want to even consider the effect peak oil will have on the economy??? Sure it may not send us spiralling into a depresssion blah blah blah BUT is sure as hell could quite easily put us into a situation where property values will not only stagnate but will also fall.

    Why do you find it so hard to believe that people with massive mortgages (and there are lots these days-how many can afford cash for a typical $650-$700k house?) will be able to cover spiralling costs ontop of their already stretched budget??

    Try to keep it simple-house are ALREADY at record levels of unafordability, yet even when faced with spiralling inflation, fuel and food costs you think people will STILL be able to find even MORE money to support rising property prices?? It stagers beleif….where

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    devo76 wrote:
    I dont think anyone is in denial in regards to oil and its longevity. Its just that most dont believe the world will come to a screaching holt in the near future. You appear to be one of those people living in fear of what lay ahead. Not caution,fear. Just as war and famine etc etc dominated the polls for whats going to kill us in the past.But dont let me stop you. Start chucking statistics up now as im sure you will. Maybe its time to start building a bunker and stock it with fuel. Mad Max becomes a reality. God help us all.

    I dont think ormeau is saying the world is coming to an end. My interpretation is that all you bly sky dreamers seem to blindly believe property prices will continue to sky rocket, and heaven forbid ANYONE who says property prices will fall. Yet none of you want to even consider the effect peak oil will have on the economy??? Sure it may not send us spiralling into a depresssion blah blah blah BUT is sure as hell could quite easily put us into a situation where property values will not only stagnate but will also fall.

    Why do you find it so hard to believe that people with massive mortgages (and there are lots these days-how many can afford cash for a typical $650-$700k house?) will be able to cover spiralling costs ontop of their already stretched budget??

    Try to keep it simple-house are ALREADY at record levels of unafordability, yet even when faced with spiralling inflation, fuel and food costs you think people will STILL be able to find even MORE money to support rising property prices?? It stagers beleif….where will

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    ormeau wrote:
    WOW, your a fool. I hope for the sake of the Australian public that you are not a financial planner………

    Gee you really got him there-god knows how he could ever rubute such a witty and intelligent remark as that. The way you have justified and backed up your claim has without left scamp no option but to admit defeat and go home with his tail between his legs..

    lol you are the fool. Keep the comments coming, Ive been saving them to show my kids in years to come just how blindly ignorant people can be when overcome by greed and fear.

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    seank wrote:

    Scamp have been spending too much time in those Holland cafes? Did you read the article properly?

    This relates to Public trustee houses, which can't be rented out and have nothing to do with the rental shortage.

    Ahhh Seank sure you read the article yourself? It isnt JUST about public trustee houses, it is also about properties that are vacant for other reasons. That asside you would also realise the article is saying "Every year about 1200 vacant houses fall into the hands of the Public Trustee" but due to red tape they cant get onto the market instantly. Also that "The number of unoccupied residential dwellings in Sydney counted by census workers in 2006 was 122,211, with the highest number found in the inner city" -not all of these were due to Trustee issues as you incorrectly pointed out. Read the article again in full maybe…

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    APerry wrote:

    Ok, we'll look at your arguments one by one:

    1. Interest rates: Long term money market rates have been falling, so it is a general consensus that we are at least near the peak of the interest rate cycle. The effect of interest rates on proiperty prices is overstated in any case, only just over half the dwellings in Australia are mortgaged so there are a lot of people who are not afected at all by changes in rates.

    You seem to forget the RBA's primary tool for controling inflation is interest rates-get inflation under control then you can start to think about lowering the rates. The RBA have already come out and said that they should have put them up at the last meeting. Cant comment on your statement that only half of the dwellings are affected mortgaged-got link proof or heresay? That asside you would have to be a real fool to think that interest rates dont have a major effect of property values

    APerry wrote:
    2. Commodities Boom: The RBA expect the current high demand for commodities to continue for "some decades" so I doubt there will be any significant change in the affect this is currently having on the economy.

    So seeing in your previous statement you said interest rates have little effect on property prices I presume you must think the boom has been entirely due to the commodities boom? That asside the 'boom' has already fed the economy-it cant keep feeding it exponentially…….understand?

    APerry wrote:

    3. Wage Growth: Low unemployment and continued economic growth will mean that wages continue to grow.

    Wage growth is inflationary….but I spose you think wages will double regardless huh? Im sure you are all to familiar with the wage growth versus debt ratios?

    APerry wrote:
    4. Disposable Income: See wage growth.

      lol so then what are we worrying about-hell put petrol up to $2, double the price of houses because we will all just get wage increases!!! Just like how our wages have doubled since property prices have doubled huh?? oops ahhh maybe not…..?

    APerry wrote:
    5. High petrol prices: This will continue to affect outer suburbs but have next to no affect on affluent suburbs, ditto for interest rates (which will likely fall in any case).

     
      Try thinking outside the little square just for a teeny weeny second. Not everyone who lives in the 'burbs' works in the city, just as not everyone who lives in the city works in the burbs. But what they ALL do is consume products that CONSUME oil right from their inception, transport, packaging, delivery and consumption which will increase the price of ALL goods for EVERYONE regardless of where you live. Now I dont really need to spell out how this could effect available cash to pay a mortgage off do I?

    APerry wrote:
    There is a shortage of rental accomodation, this will mean that rents keep rising and will support high property prices as will high building costs. 

     I keep hearing this, but I am still waiting for someone to explain to me if demand is sooooooo outsripping supply then why arnt all these rentals cash flow positive???? Surely becasue demand is sooooooo large that the owners should be able to charge at least a rent that will cover their repayments??
     

    APerry wrote:
    I have no interest in changing yourt mind on anything, I couldn't care less what you think, but please don't say that anything to do with macro economics is clear or simple, professional economists get most of their predictions wrong. There may well be a property crash, though I doubt it, but even if there is your reasoning is flawed.

    You are free to think whatever you like. I will sleep confortably knowing that I can substantiate my beliefs on something other than 'hope'. Human nature is a strange thing-they have no trouble believing that prices will increase at extraodinary or unrealistic rates, but cant fathom to think they may fall. Strange dont you think? Do you think every person who has ever lost money whether it be through property in the states, the stock market or business ever thought things may go anyway but up? Nope of course not, they would have made informed judgment based decisions. And my informed decision is telling me the market is goign to be in trouble….

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    APerry wrote:
    It's been settled, all economists should be fired on the spot. Scamp and Blogs are the only people worth listening to! 

    C'mon APerry  think about it rationally for just one second-our property boom was fuelled by record low interest rates and a commodity boom, now the effects of which have started to dissapate. Remove these two factors and what is going to fuel the growth over the next 5 years? O.K so we should be able to agree that we wont see growth over the next 7 years like we have seen over the last seven.

    So now lets think about factors that could allow the growth, or fuel it. Disposable cash-nope, people are struggling more and more each day. Wage growth, nope-the more inflatonary pressure the higher the interest rates. WHAT DO WE KNOW IS HAPPENING, WELL PETROL IS GOING THROUGH THE ROOF AND WONT BE COMING BACK DOWN-DONT KNOW ABOUT YOU BUT PETROL FOR many people is a major portion of their weekley expenses. Through into the mix a large portion of 5 year fixers coming of their cheapo interest rates and having to start paying near 10% and again we have another wammy.

    I know its much easier for people to convince themselves its allllll going tobe o.k, but how about posting somethign to convince me property is guuna continue to boom?

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    Its amazing people still think property prices are going to keep just going up!!!!! Petrol is at $1.60ish, interest rates are on the way up again, inflation outside target thresholds, yet for some crazy reason they figure a money tree is gunna grow and give the market even MORE money to spend on already overley inflated property prices!! I just dont get it….

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    vicgirl wrote:
    But you and Scamp are saying we are yet to follow in the footsteps of the US where interest rates have come down…then you're also saying ours will keep going up…excuse me for ending up confused about the logic behind your comments.

    What Im saying is the states are in all sorts of trouble due to wayyyy to much debt, and even with low interest rates people have had to sell their houses at massive losses. Now look at Australia-massive debt, period of never before seen spiraling property prices, inflation getting out of control, fuel prices hitting record highs, the cost of living is just going up up up….put two and two together-seriously for you (and possibly your families sake) stop being greedy and take a breath. Where do you think people are going to get the money just to cover the increasing costs of living let alone support a increase in property prices that are already way over valued by not only our standards but world standards? People hate to face reality, and then when reality bites they all go to point the finger at someone else (usually the government) rather than have a good hard look at themselves….

    Again another article in the paper on the weekend stating already properties at the top end of town are selling for $100k less than they were just 12 months ago-and we arnt even in 'financiall hardship' yet, just wait till the pain really starts to bite

    Aint seen nothin yet…..

    But thats the beauty of this forum-hopefully we can all work to increase all our positions while the sheep are led to the slaughter…

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    L.A Aussie-living in the states Im sure you would be familiar with rent control?????

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    vicgirl wrote:
    Michael Matusik disagrees.

    That guy is a joker-tell him hes dreamin!!! lol interest rates have plenty of up before they can even THINK about coming back down….

    Simple -you just watch the supply come on the market when all the fixed rate loans come off and have to be re financed. Im sue all the armchair expert property investors who watched it on telly so bought a house will soon flood the market….

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    No offense mate but a $14 saving is hardely going to entice anybody, especially when you factor in the time it takes to sort it all out with you and the risk you may sc$w them-not worth it at all. Why dont you make it a little less 'tight'? Hell I could just skip lunch and save $14 and avoid all the hassle!!

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    Wow thats a whole $14 saving!!! Sure you aint CRAZY????? LOL How generouse of you…. 

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    KIZ wrote:

    WOW, i went to Steve's last seminar and not even HE, a proven, respected, self made property mogul, would dare suggest that anything is so absolute and definite!!! Scamp, are you as qualified as him to be giving advice???

    Unless of course you spout the normal dribble about property prices doubling every 7 years-then it is garaunteed huh……?

    Keeping it simple-evrything has been stretched to breaking point, debt it at rediculous all time highs, banks are in deep trouble for giving out such high levels of debt, and the economy is at its peak-what do you think is going to happen when we tip ove rthe peak? How is the slack going to be picked up to allow property to double in 7 years? Seriously just have a think about it-why is it soooo unfathomable that unprecidented record levels of growth cant also be met with falls??

    Talk about head in the sand blue sky dreaming…..

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    Tony B wrote:
    Hi folks
      But if the bank says it owes us 250,000 then they will not sell it for 200,000 beleive me.  

    Want to make a bet!!!! You are basing this belief on what exactly???? Try having a look at the states for some real world evidence-PLENTY of properties sold at 30-50% losses mate!!!

    There arnt many selling at a discount here YET because people are still managing to get by. Its once they are forced into a position where they HAVE to sell that you will see property prices tumble!!! Just go to some auctions-much different atmosphere to even a few months ago-people are sitting back-the greed has turned from the seller to the buyer who is hoping to buy as cheap as possible. Give it time…it will come!!!!

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