Forum Replies Created
G’day Guys n Gals…
Thanks for your comments.
A link of interest…Facts & Figures.
http://www.infochoice.com.au/banking/news/04/06/article11841.aspThose that know the “Real Bill”, would consider me to be enthusiastic and positive…. even about Real Estate….. but at the right time and place. Yeah, ok, a few other things too.
Impossible to make a post and say……..
“except Blue Ribbon Properties” and “except a well cushioned Investor” and except this and except that.Of course, there will be exceptions in NZ as there are on the Gold Coast…. but as Westan says..he is being outbid by Aussies that are paying over the top. Entering the R/E Game over the past 12 months is going to be a little bit like “pass the parcel”….. when the music stops, it won’t matter how much DD ( Forums word… not mine)you have done.
The Banks ?…. they will and do use clauses to their advantage even, as you say “the right to inspect a property”.
For what’s it worth…. You make your profit when you Buy…not when you Sell.
Cheers for now
Bill
Bill O’Mara
Hi Misty 1….
Yes ! All costs in the persuit of income are tax deductible…. don’t forget all the councilfees etc
Billfromoz
G’day re lack of activity….
For what it’s worth … my brother runs a training program in the Sharemarket at a modest price…. March has been his worst onth on record.
Just a one off wonder? … I don’t think so!
He wrote nearly $200k in biz 3 monhs ago..then $100k… then $79k and March to date $13k?????
The Share market did not follow through after breaking the 10,000 barrier over Xmas and is now falling back.
Most of you know my immediate views on R/E… for another 18 months or so anyway.
We are moving back to the ACT with a 2 year lease so I can develop my project at the farm an hour from Canberra.
Take this on board… my wife looked at a townhouse wih jut one group of agents and all very nice… too dear… and she can take her pick of 70… I am not exagerating.
Think about it? Because I am convinced that I have read the R/e and Share Market correctly, over the past 6 months…. well almost all areas anyway
Billfromoz
We could be in for a bout of disinflation and Interest rates will fall after April as Winter sets in.Billfromoz
Bill O’Mara
G’day again…
I could not pass up the opportunity to comment on Docklands…. however why not ask Richmond to post all my warnings and emails to him off forum.
Folks the tremors and Scams at Docklands started back in October/November. ACA were not interested then… now 3 emails and telephone calls a day… what a difference a few months and another 27 victims make.
The first victims contract was terminated and full deposit refunded………… Richmond has the full story so over to you mate.
Billfromoz
Bill O’Mara
G’day again…
The US and GB are leading the way for a Bust , not only in Real Estate but you can now add the Stock Market to the list. Bank Shares will tumble as the R/E Mkt tumles along with the Dow Jones.
There are other opportunities to be had…. time to think outside the square. Yes I did predict the Dow Jones to break through the 10,000 barrier…and it did… but current economic events in the US and the recent decline in British R/E will make Docklands and the like fall another $100k.
Me Negative? Not at all. Just look around you and if we ran our finances like the NAB, Docklands, US economy
we would all see our net worth fall. Even the demand for loans will dry up and the rates will fall much to the dismay of those with fixed rates.Interest rates alone do not drive our markets… peoples perceptions, fear and greed will do it.
Until my next post.
Billfromoz
Bill O’Mara
G’day again…
A few months ago I offered to mentor/help people with
Investment issues etc.Why did I make the offer? Because I have the experience to do so and it may make a difference in thier life…which makes me feel good…. so at the end of the day I do it for me, even if they may have benefited.
Perception ? People on this Forum and those I have had business dealings with over 30 odd years form their opinion of me (as they do of you and I of them) based on our perception of one another.
I agree that reality is priceless, but peoples perception of us (even a product or a business)is so real to us and it may very well be the opposite to the reality.
Avoiding pain ? Why do people stay in a job they have hated for years and then finally leave? Because the pain of staying is now greater than the pain in leaving security and regular income. And they stayed as long as they did to avoid their perception of the pain caused by no job or security if they were to leave.
Would be interested in others views on this topic.
Cheers
Billfromoz
Bill O’Mara
Hi Celivia….long time no G’day….
An experndure incurred in the pursuit of income is tax deductible.
If you got 2 reports and walked away…. then another report on a third property that you ended up purchasng I feel sure that you can claim all three…. remember that all costs in the persuit of income is tax deductible.
I believe you have a ligitimit claim for all Reports
Cheers
Billfromoz
Bill O’Mara
G’day….
To get ahead with your finances you only have to do two things.
(1) Buy and read/study …”The Richest Man in Babylon”.
(2) Pay yourself first. If, for example your take home pay is just $600 pw then Bank in a special account 10-15%..$60/$90 each week. My kids have a “Don’t touch account”. It Works!
No excuses …. arrange it automatically through your paymaster. It is not money for a rainy day or emergency
Continue until you have $5,000… Only 1 to 1.5 years.Then consider a safe investment…. longterm shares or
a partner in a Real Estate venture with like minded people.If you don’t “pay yourself first” you are working for everyone but yourself. Keep a daily record of your expenditure for a lousy 3 months… forget budgeting until you have completed 3 months of record keeping.
Now you know where you are spending/wasting your money.
Adjust your lifestyle accordingly if you are serious.
Two years ago I sat down with my Son…. he recorded his expenditure… and discovered he was spending $1,700 pa on Coke. That is the equivelant of paying off about $24,000 on part of a mortgage or the best part of $10,000 savings over 5 years.Make your descision… that is all you need to do.
Billfromoz
Bill O’Mara
Hi
Seriously…. I am stating what to me is the obvious.
I have seen properties that sold recently in Sydney and Brisbane that I feel will not fall in value… rents are good and maybe just a 5% CG.But I refer to the majority… they are spending too many after tax dollars on property and using the
“lotto size gains” over the past 7 yrears to buy expensive cars etc etc.Like those that win lotto… it is generally gone within 18 months….. just when it’s maybe time to buy again.
Bill
Bill O’Mara
G’day ….
The economists making “sweeping statements” remind me of some of my earlier comments. Blue Ribbon Real Estate should hold it’s own but with much slower growth.
As most of the market is overpriced, in peoples ability to service(particularly the majority of investors) their mortgages given another 1 or 2% rate rise. Then the Domino effect comes into play… most of us will be effected.
It is too easy to forget that a $100k mortgage with borrowings at 18% several years ago will prove to be a hell of a lot cheaper to service than a $300k mortgage today at 7-8%. Perhaps, $6000 extra pa in interest…. and that is after tax income.
The economists are right… this is a global situation. Both Australia and the US are spending their increased equity in units and off the plan nightmares together with cars and other consumerable goods. Try a Google search to see what is happening in the UK…. a disaster waiting to happen.
As you make your profit, when and where you buy, for me, patience for another 12-18 months will pay dividends.
Let me take you back a few months to the forum guy that I had his fraudulent Docklands Contract terminated after exchange with his full deposit refunded. He was the first…. there are now 27 others in the same boat, totalling $19 million worth of Real
Estate Deals…. please think carefully as to what Wayne and others are saying… it’s not gossip… it willprove to be real and harder than we can imagine today…. all things come to an end.You just have to be patient and wait to purchase BUT only offload if you’re highly geared.
An occaisional post from …Billfromoz
Bill O’Mara
Mini…
The only reason I hate the term “due dilligence” is because it’s Steve’s term. I have always referred too it as either… doing your sums…doing your homework…educating yourself… checking it out etc
The majority of the Forum don’t even have a mind of their own. To see people constantly using “Steve’s words”….like “due dilligence” suggests they are like a mob of sheep.
Bill
Bill O’Mara
G’day to all at the Forum….
I know if your reading this you’ve had a gutful, but as I have said “I am not the ripp off merchant some would have you believe”. I write this, acknowledging that I cannot change a mind made up..irrespective of the truth.
The gentleman who sent out the email asked my permission before doing so…I had no objections.
He informed me of Westan’s very negative point of view.
Westan emailed me and suggested that he had thought about” my band of followers” and suggested it was a perfect way to “get friendly” then fleece them. The thought never entered my mind, but Westan certainly entertained the idea as the “perfect way”.I had hours on the phone with the person who, nearing retirement needed his finance re-organised as his broker was ill informed. Many calls, both email and phone corrected this just prior to Xmas. I discussed option writing with him and an amount that given my guarantee of making his mortgage payments and sharing in the profits he would need $150 – $200k to make it worthwhile. We decided to put it off as he was going overseas and I had not finalised another opportunity discussed with him to diversify our capital.
While we are at it Westan…please educate yourself in the difference between an option Buyer and an Option Writer(Seller) Your comment that I must surely lose when I am wrong…. you are confusing the two positions and referring to a trader who buys options.
The reason I write options is that 85% expire worthless and as you read up a simple book you will then understand the difference.One thing is for sure I do not do business with anyone I have not met and we have got to know one another. No I am not writing options for the person in question or any other Forum member for that matter. The person has expressed an interest in visiting my Canberra clients and join us in an Investment that has both State & Federal Govt, grants and yes…we will probably write Options with some of the generated profits.
Mini….many months ago I offered to send you all that I was sending out to members of the Forum…to put your mind at rest. Yo had attacked my integrity and still do with your cohort Westan…. however you refused to accept the info and wanted it posted on the Forum. An impossible task…6 pages of Q’s and a 9 page report…something I have been doing face to face, by invitation for 20 years.Who knows,you may have learnt something. I did however send a copy to Admin at PI.Com. Perhaps I could also send them verification that I managed to get a Forumite out of a $706k scam at Docklands… after contracts exchanged…with his full deposit refunded.
I have had many emails from ex Forumites and a few of the remaining ones expressing their concern that I still have not put up my own web site.
I returned to PI.Com recently expecting “it would have all blown away” not to be…still the sniping and attacks on my Integrity. So I guess I will have to do as I said regarding my website. The content will surprise you, but as I have zero skills in that area will have to rely on the Forumites who have offered to do it for me… and like me FREE!
A handfull of property purchases in a rising market does not make you an expert. There is no such thing. After 30 odd years I can still learn something each day..usually about “herd mentallity” &”closed minds”.
Before I go…I do not advocate you selling your R/E, but warn you that if you have purchased recently or intend to, that you will do better in waiting until 2005… the race has been well and truly run.
Steve, I thank you for the right of reply and am probably kidding myself that this is the end of it.
All the best for 2004
Bill
Bill O’Mara
Steve… I gladly accept your right of reply….
I just spent 30 minutes in doing so….typo in my password…and lost it all.
Will re do another time soon…as it is time the Forum has all the facts and they are not what is being portrayed.
Bill
Bill O’Mara
Hi guys…
You have missed my point!
I am not writing options on behalf of anyone on the Forum.
I do not do biz with anyone until we have met and get to know one another, if we are like minded then maybe.
As for R/E… I have never said “sell up” but warned others that buying IP’s now is a certain loser.
Just be patient and wait.Cheers
Bill
Bill O’Mara
Mini & Westan and a handful of other novices….
You are sadly mistaken. A forumite cotacted you Westan for a second opinion on Option Writing…. what would you know? In any case the prson concerned dismissed your comments as uninformed and lacking in any real Knowledge.
I am fussy who I do business with and Don’t do business with anyone I have not met. The option writing has had to take a back seat as I am putting together a venture with Govt, subsidies that will employ jobs for those in Country towns and Regional areas.
To date there is no one writing options via me and in your denial of 40/60% returns you are only displaying your ignorance as you both are in investing in high yielding Dumps in NZ that confirm your lack in investment skills. Talk to other option writing exoperts and they will confirm my experience…ask Wayne and otherrs withthe knowledge that you lack.
You are therefore both guilty of capitalising on Newbies that think that this R/E Mkt has more to come…it does, but as a disaster. What’s more I am not negative and never suggested taht anyone “sell all theit R/E”…. just don’t buy today as you will buy cheaper in 18 months to two years.
Mini… you are so wrong in your assessment of me… why not so a canvass on those that requested a meeting with me in Canberra at Xmas time?… but of course, you have both made up your minds.
In time, you will both find that you have confused your ambitions with your capabilities. A handful of properties bought in a rising Market… will be a lesson in life and hardly makes either of you experts or even experienced.
You have both had your say re my integrity without being censored…I trust I am given the same latitude.
Billfromoz.
Bill O’Mara
Hi Mini…
There was no need to mention the properties you have sourced are in NZ. With those yields they have to be in a Country tht will show negative growth and what happens when the 25% decine comes into play.
I hope you have a concious… what then”? Suva?
NZ will prove to be worse than Country towns in Aussie.
I also note that Westan is capitalising on the ignorance of the uninformed… you make a great pair.
Cheers
Billfromoz
Bill O’Mara
Hi Kay and Bec…
Forumites don’t like Authentic people/views/experience
unless it’s what they want to hear.Cheers
Bill
Bill O’Mara
Apologies..
4th para above should read early 1987 not ’97.
Bill
ps. No edit???G’day once more…
It never ceases to amaze me that people “into” Property think that this time it may be different.
Pigs might fly…
A little story on the Share Mkt,will give you an indication that you can compare to the latest Real Estate Boom. 1986 the “smart” money got out of the Share Mkt.. and placed funds into Cash Mngt.
By early 1997 they could not stand it any longer… all those people still making money in the “game” they just left. So convinced were they, that they got back into the Market and were still there Oct. 20th
They lost a fortune and went straight into the R/E Mkt…creating a boom. A lot has happened since then.
But people are the same the world over… Fear of losing,greed, complacency, ignorance, fear of missing out and downright unskilled.Let me assure you that the Unit oversupply in Sydney and Melbourne will have a ripple effect. Domino theory… Properties will lose value by 25% over the next few months as we head into winter.
But, you know better, your situation/City/Town/ and our pooor cousins in NZ is different. Don’t you realise that all punters say that,they feel that they are immune from reality. A cheap property may be cash flow + in a booming market…. but as your tenants vacate and buy the el-cheapos from you at “their” price
you have a vacancy that is now 100% negative.Predictions I have made since September have been :
(a) Aussie $ to go to US$77… done that & more to come
(b) Interest rate… I expected .5%… we got .25%
(c) I expected the Dow Jones to exceed 10,000 by Xmas
it did that plus…. as the Stock Mkts. pull back a bit over the next month.. expect complacency to take hold again in the R/E Mkt… especially with a likely hold on interest rates in Feb, Why? The Aussie is strong and getting stronger as the US$ crumbles.The US will jack up their rates to try & support their Dollar.. it won’t work… and Aussie will too… and that is the nail in the coffin for our Exporters as the Aussie$$ climbs towards US$.90
As our rates peak in say, April… they will be high enough to create bedlam with typical borrowers… mass sales as the overgeared, and those that got on board far too late will lose tens of Thousands even $100,000 or more on inner city “I’m gunner flip em”, as they can’t withstand the pressure from lenders and the bigger loan payments… especially with a 1% yield.
The final straw was when I read of folk selling the family home to finance country town/regional/ NZ investments.The locals who sold out to the “city slickers” will be your buyers… at your expense.
Buyers that now rush in thinking “it’s a bargain” will wish they had waited until late 2005. Properties have been on the market unsold for months. Last weeks Sydney Auctions were a non- event. What do the “flippers” do? They walk away, get sold up and may have to sell the family home to cover the shortfall.
If you think a handfull of IP’s over a few years is experience… it has been… but only in a booming Mkt.
Your education begins over the next few months as complacency… due to lack of R/E headlines takes it’s toll.I tried to “educate” you on the dangers and immorality of wrapping in a falling market… thank God I convinced a few…. but the “crowd” is generally inexperienced but “knows better?”.Wait another few months and you will see what I meant.
One thing I have noticed since my return is that PI is a revolving door. Those that can’t read a market stay on in a never give up attitude…. that’s commendable,
but fruitless and heartbreaking when you realise you should have known that the R/E Market will fall when you least expect.Experience counts…… Steve sold out a “swag” of properties, as I did… maybe a little soon, others have sold in the nick of time… but cashed up to take advantage of the bargains in 2005. What do you do in the meantime?
The R/E and Stock Mkt. is not the only game in town!
Maybe you have to experience a loss to learn.
Best of luck… and thanks for the request Steve.
Bill O’Mara
I wish it was going to be different for many of you.
Bill O’Mara
G’day Steve…
I will put in my 2 Bob’s worth at the weekend. Just about to leave town for a couple of days.
Cheers for now
Bill
Bill O’Mara
