Forum Replies Created
Iron Ore Price up 60% coal up similar commodities seen globally as a good hedge against falling Us $ and inflation Brittish Gas just invested 300million Brittish Pesos in QGC their first foray into oz and some big global guys talking up oz as follows.
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The storm hanging over the U.S. economy has stalled. Key indicators aren't turning up; heck, they're not even turning sideways yet.
It's clear the dark clouds raining down on the economy won't be going anywhere anytime soon. Thus, we should soon start to expect some peripheral flood damage.
That means bad things for some currencies.
The Dollar Has Been Severely Beaten,
And the Euro and Pound Are NextThe Philadelphia Fed economic index recently showed manufacturing in the Philly area contracted more than twice as much as expected.
But that was only the first beat in a drum roll of bad news this week. There was also negative data on inflation and jobless claims.
So are analysts jumping all over the R-word again? Actually, they're skipping to the next letter of the alphabet in evaluating the U.S. economy. I'm talking about an S-word — stagflation. You know; that delightful combination of near stagnant growth amidst rising prices.
The buck has already received a severe beating on account of these pitiful fundamentals. And as I told you last week, the euro and the British pound are priced for perfection and thus in danger of getting hammered.
Here's the good news: There ARE other currencies out there that aren't weighed down by lousy fundamentals. And among these strong currencies …
The Australian Dollar Is
In a League of its OwnAustralia is a prime example of a major industrialized economy that is NOT suffering from financial-led turmoil.
And that means the Australian dollar stands to benefit.
Here are just two reasons why …
Great Fundamental #1:
Demand for CommoditiesAustralia's economy is driven by natural resources. And when gold is trading well over $900 an ounce and crude oil closing above $100 per barrel for the first time ever this week, you can see why a resources-rich country like Australia is flourishing.
Demand for natural resources should power the Australian dollar higher!
Thanks to steady demand from China and other emerging Asian markets, Australia is rolling along like a snowball down a hill!No doubt you've heard of China's unrivaled demand for natural resources? Well, the Australian labor market proves it's true.
In January, Australian unemployment fell to its lowest level since 1974. And the addition of 26,800 new jobs marked the 15th consecutive month of gains.
Why? The Australians can't dig up gold or ship out wheat fast enough to meet demand!
And remember that Australia's job market strength comes as the employment situation in the U.S. is softening. Opposite ends of the spectrum, indeed.
There's no doubt Asian demand is a boon to Australia's economy.
Internal Sponsorship
It's official: Government reveals U.S. is now a
STAGFLATION NATION!» Inflation: Accelerating!
» U.S. Manufacturing: Tanking!
» Unemployment: Rising!
» Leading Indicators: Plunging!
Here's what to do now to harness the enormous profit power of this new stagflation environment, and go for gains of up to 46 to 1 as weak U.S. stock sectors get slammed …Great Fundamental #2:
Relatively High Interest RatesCurrency trading, at times, is largely determined by the difference between countries' interest rates. Generally speaking, a currency that throws off a yield of 6% is a far more attractive investment than a currency yielding only 0.5%.
These yield differentials make up the mechanics of the carry-trade .
As you can see, the Australian dollar is second only to New Zealand (8.25%) in terms of yield. But what's even more appealing is the direction rates are expected to take.
Most major central banks around the world are in one of two positions:
#1. They have already cut rates and are expected to cut rates further.
OR …
#2. They are expected to begin cutting rates.
The Reserve Bank of Australia happens to be in a different position: they're pushing rates in the other direction — UP.
Why? Because they can!
As I pointed out a minute ago, the Reserve Bank of Australia is working on a firm growth foundation. They have no worries about tightening up monetary policy to control rising prices, which stem largely from the country's super-tight job market.
Other central banks would have to sacrifice economic growth with interest rate increases. And that's just something Australia won't have to do.
While the Australian Dollar Is
Well Positioned, Stay Alert!You know now why I'm bullish on the Australian dollar over the long term. However, it's important that you also understand that even the strongest swimmer can have a tough time staying above water in a perfect storm.
Currencies that attract investment via high yields are vulnerable to downside in an environment flooded with risk, despite strong fundamentals. This is just the kind of environment we have right now.
So we could see money exit the Aussie dollar in search of less volatile and less risky investments at any point.
The key question is whether traders are willing to look past near-term problems in the global markets and follow the fundamentals.
Bottom line: I think the Australian dollar has a date with U.S. dollar parity in the long-term. But we cannot underestimate the trouble yet to unravel in the American, British, and European markets, either.
bender10 wrote:Although this is not a stock investing forum. I am just wondering whether or not there is a way to gain exposure to US Housing market values through stocks (when the time comes right obviously)? Most REIT's and real estate stocks tend to deal with commercial and Apartment complexes rather than single family dwellings obviously…The information that I have strongly suggests to sell anything US especially financial services and real estate it will change but not this decade a strong sell reccomendation also means dont buy.
If you are feeling adventurous and beleive thats the follwoing market forces apply:
1. Record-setting demand due largely from the rise of Asian economies;2. Supply problems that have become endemic in many natural resources; and.
3. Central banks that are determined to avoid deflation and depression by creating inflation.
Then have a look at these.
China Petroleum & Chemical (SNP): Asia's largest refiner by capacity, Sinopec is a petrol-octopus, with tentacles reaching into every facet of oil: From exploration and development to marketing, distribution, storage, trading and petrochemical production. Sinopec has around 3.3 billion barrels of crude oil along with almost 2.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Sinopec is trading around $113 a share. That's more than double its 2006 low, but down about $65 — or 36% — from its recent high. The stock's P/E is just 10.73, and the company's five-year earnings per share growth has been better than 25%.
CNOOC Ltd. (CEO): Infamous for its attempt to purchase Unocal a few years back, CNOOC is another major Asian oil and gas player. Its share price is now trading at about $168, a deal when you consider this giant's 30% annual earnings growth and last year's high of more than $200 a share.
Santos Ltd. (STOSY): This major Australian oil and gas outfit has major presences in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Kyrgyzstan, and Egypt. Santos is trading at about $52, down from a recent high of $57. With a five-year earnings growth rate of better than 29%, it looks like a great opportunity anywhere under $50 a share.
Alumina Ltd. (AWC): Australia-based Alumina, as the name implies, is a big aluminum player, investing in bauxite mining, alumina refining, and some aluminum smelting operations. AWC is 60% owned by Alcoa. Alumina was a penny stock until November 2002 when it lifted off the launch pad. Now trading around $22, it's down about 30% from its recent $31 high.
POSCO (PKX): South Korea's Posco is one of the world's most profitable steelmakers. It produces 28 million tons of steel products per year, enough to manufacture 100,000 compact cars, and exports its steel products to more than 60 countries. Posco's stock is now trading at about $136, down from its record of $201. That's nearly a 33% drop.
Some say Posco's earnings will suffer since iron ore prices are headed much higher. That would increase the cost of producing steel. But Posco is probably going to be able to pass much of those cost increases on to the end user.Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. Ltd. (YZC): China's leading coal miner, with more than two billion tons of reserves, and production of more than 40 million tons a year. China is still some 80% dependent upon coal. Between the country's recent terrible winter storms, the worst in 54 years, and record high coal prices, YZC is in a great position. Its share price is currently trading at about $90, down from its peak of $116.73 last October.
Kubota Corp. (KUB). Japan's Kubota Corp. manufactures farm equipment, engines, pipe and fluid systems, industrial castings, environmental control plants, and housing materials and equipment. Kubota's share price is off about 50% since its record high of $60.60 last year.
At Melton West, a mortgagee sale of a six-bedroom house passed in at $200,000 — $255,000 had been offered in November.
A MODERN four-bedroom Vermont home passed in for $800,000, despite five buyers having made earlier offers about $850,000;
The Mother of all Credit Meltdowns has started in the US and UK and there are lot of recenly enterd property investors upside down, a bank run has happened in the UK , major crisss nd downgrding of all teh US big fincers, German Bank looking very iffy, US in recession, no one trusts anyone anymore ,and no one knows where the dead bodies are buried and how many there are.
No doubt this is the big one and some say the worlds financial systems are at tipping point but others say that the crisis has already been priced into the markets. The FED have dropped interest rates at a record pace and these rates are not being passed on. Global inflation has broken awy and for the first time is is not a national identfit yit is global this is a first.
China is cashed up and hasn't had to play any of its economic cards yets unlike the US and UK which have played most of theirs. Lets hope that decoupling is a reality some say it isn't.
Oz doesn't exist in a vaccum and will be affected and who knows how it will pan out. Those investors that bought well and have worked out their holding costs shouldn't be overly concerned. The economic fundamentals are still very strong in oz, employment, commodites and surpluses so I would rather be here than elsewhere in the next few years. I cant see an employment shock as there re so many major projects on now or in the pipeline.
I have decided to pull my own head in and backed out of a few investments in coal and oil. Fixed all my investment loans have a decent LOC facility if I need a buffer or want to invest in a bargain and otherwise sitting back and watching the meltdown in US and UK unfold. Listings have shot up in Brisbane they say that sellers and investors trying to beat future rte rises so looks like supply might increase and we know what that means.
I have dropped you an email send me your CV regarding onshore oil and gas work.
At the prices mentioned
Northside Ningi, Bellmere, Morayfiled and Caboolture
Southside Beenleigh
Its probably dodgy known the yanks it looked like a good rock festival to me. Shame about the low income mob I guess there is no real equitable social structure in a land ruled by the religious right war profiteering oil barons.
Have you seen this one in Clifornia Beware the Grim Repo Man ?
https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forums/property-investing/overseas-deals/4323575
Ian Landy wrote:bardon wrote:The information on these forums is worth as much as you paid for it.Sorry
"Some of the information on these forums is worth as much as you paid for it."
In my short membership period I have read some excellent advice from people who have obviously had plenty of real life experience. These folks help to maintain a forum of high standards and I hope they continue to contribute for everyones sake.
Ian
Yes your right here but the risk is that some naive person might conversley do something silly based on that small element of incorrect information.
I think its all good though and this forum is one of my favourite surfs….even though the arguments are a bit sooky…..would like to see a bit more robust argument and an acceptance of the other persons position you dont have to agree this is the best form of communication and is called understanding.
The lesson here is that the information posted on website forums should be taken with a pinch of salt. Many comments are tongue in cheek, could be madein jest, or to exageratte to make a point of view or even to muck rake and can be taken out of context fairly easily. Nothing posted should be considered as fact and is only discussionary. The information on these forums is worth as much as you paid for it.
Stupid
Life goes on in the UK with a new subprime lender in the market
"
NEW SUB PRIME LENDER JUST LAUNCHED – just as I predicted.WHITE LABEL LOANS will lend up to 95% with adverse credit, and 90% bad credit on a lie to buy basis for those who cant prove thier income!
See my loverlys, life really does go on.
FACT – 99% of people do not get repossessed.
FACT – lenders need to lend if they want to exist
FACT – even in the bleak 1970s with high unemployment, collapsing UK economy, strikes and OPEC crisis, life went on, people bought houses, the world did'nt end.Can someone let Chicken Licken know. Tell him he is self obsessed and unhealthily focused on his here and now petty time on Earth. There aint nuttin special about his time, he just has this great self obsession "
hw wrote:One other thing that no its worth pointing out in an uncertain climate is that no property can actually be said to have increased by 20% until it has actually settled. Until then its just numbers on paper.If the value goes back the way and has not settled then it is a problem if you are running a balance sheet.
flash wrote:Why?
Were you intending to blow up all your US properties or something along the lines?
Have I misunderstood? LOL……Weapons of Mass Destruction "WMD"
They seen you coming!!!!
Becasue I was non citiizen and under the patriot act what else could I be but a terrorist with WMD
flash wrote:Hi Bardon,World Changer,Funny you should mention insurance,I didn't realise until I found out a few months ago the difference in premium for a 85 000
San antonio property.While tenanted is 515 year
or 2350 untenanted.Flash your lucky I couldn't get insurance because I had WMD under my house in Brisbane…..
"There ought to be limits
to freedom…"— George W. Bush,
commenting on the website
http://www.gwbush.comWorld Changer wrote:Hey guys ,
hope yr well !ha ha far out Bardon ,i miss you man ha ha Thats a classic.
Nice one worldchanger I hope he takes your advice.
This guy is a good US property manager in fact he is outstanding
Tysonboss1 wrote:bardon wrote:
Arrow Energy shares have taken a big dive recently so might be good buying except I know people that work for them and they tell me things that scare me..
Hi Bardon,
I want to increase my holding in Arrow,…. What have you heared that scares you.
Not for general consumption….drop me a PM with your phone and I will give you a buzz
QGC closed up 18% on days trading
Try this out first:
take 500 a month and burn it every month at least
stay up at night or get up really early and phone up someone in US and ask them the same question that you have always asked them as if it is the first time that you are asking them, repeat this daily until you get zoned out
buy heating, plumbing and electrical equipment and throw it in the dump once you have paid for it and have the receipts repeat this at leas three times
pay someone to cut the grass but dont get them to cut it
pay someone to remove snow that isn't there
let your PM keep the rent that he got off the tenant
when you change tenants send your PM money for repairs and dont ask him what happened with the bond
keep plenty of back up money for the city violations that are going to come
dont open up your email becasue its only bad news that you will get
when you are having a relaxing time and switching off give your self a shock and run through the above .
If you are okay with all of that then you will be fine.
Tysonboss1 wrote:[
Take a look at QGC ( queensland gas company ) and AOE ( Arrow energy ).Coal seam methane is going to be big,….. Why?
Dont say you never told us
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23154884-952,00.html
Tysonboss1 wrote:bardon wrote:I still want the uranium though as a bit of diversification and the poms have just signed off on a nuclear powered future.
I personally would only invest money in a uranium company if it were producing, At the moment I feel to much speculative money is flowing into uranium and there is a lack of producing companies on reasonable P/E ratios.
I Know the the Nuclear industry has been silently growing with most of the worlds plants increasing capacity, How ever I feel the coming boom in nuclear energy is still some years off, There are still some hurdles that need to be over come before it is full staem ahead with neclear, The biggest issue beening some sort of longterm storage for the waste, There is currently no longterm storage for spent fuel rods anuwhere in the world. Power plants are just stockpiling the spents rods till governments appove a longterm facilty some where in the world, I think Australia should put there hand up for this.
Excellent double investment strategy producing it, selling it then getting it back and storing the waste forever good solid long term earnings.
Whether or not the storage problem is resolved many countries are commiting to nuclear energy. Not forgetting the price of uranium had a major crash recently so maybe its at the bottom now.
Oil is definetly far to cheap at the moment for any alternative energy to come even close to it read the exxon report about supply constraints as well 200 a barrel on the way. QGC faired very well in the recent bear market as well, Arrow energy also had interesting low point and ramp up.
