Forum Replies Created
Hey well done getting in there, fancy posting the link to the next one ?what was the contrarct price on the one you missed out ?
question questions
I think I will get another mortgage before infaltion sets in
go under asking price and buy it
mymatephil wrote:My guess, he still lives at home with his folks in the suburbs of Syd/Melb, studies economics and probably plays Warcarft online. And, didn't he say "so long and farewell a while ago? Why the hell did he come back? Can't anyone keep a simple promise anymore.Tthe name scamp was a short form for Scampi a poor mans prawn dish…I think he is the guy from Bad Boy Bubby and only came back after Mummy told him to stop taking his meds……..
harb wrote:bardon wrote:what about Peak Oil ? Anything on that ?Peak Oil will only return when prices go above US$100 a barrel.
Dont suppose you could repost some of Scamps posts on peak oil I think they were in the same vein as IR's would be good to review if you can get them.
alani wrote:bardon wrote:what about Peak Oil ? Anything on that ?wait a couple of years when it all turns around, recessions are planned to reduce inflation to stimulate future growth. In my opinion Oil will be worth $200 a barrel in 3-4 years,
You may well be right I was actually asking Harb if he had any of the good oil on Scamps Peak Oil posts
what about Peak Oil ? Anything on that ?
Anyone seen those barnd new 3br cash flow +ve townhouses in Waterford, Brisbane for $317k……….cant see them dropping 40% can you ?
fill yer boots
and this for my own PPR suburb
Trendy Bulimba in Brisbane's inner east has recorded a decline in sales of only 8.7 per cent over the two September quarters and median house prices during the periods have increased 11.5 per cent to $900,000.
Place real estate salesman Matthew Ollerton said niche suburbs such as Bulimba still faced buyer competition.
"Lots of people want to live there and many see this as their prime time to get in before it gets unaffordable."
Mr Ollerton recently sold a three-bedroom, two-bathroom house at 21 Brisbane St on a 405sq m block for $735,000.
And he negotiated the sale of a near-new contemporary house on the Corso for $1.2 million.
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While I enjoy reading discussion and ideas from boths sides, the same people banging on about the same old argument in EACH AND EVERY post (and then turning post on completely different subjects to their same old claptrap) is becoming very tiresome.
K[/quote]
Well there has been some progress the issue of peak oil, rising IR's and the great Sep 08 property crash is now not debated here anymore.
Bill Gates may not be a property spruker but he is a Corporate Spruiker and he is just talking up thr defaltion thing as he has been told to.
You go first with your costs
Invest in Soup
Harb, The Fin review had the complete listing of all postcodes from that report and yes it wasn't bad at all, all of mine got single digit growth last calendar year and forecast to flatline this year. I made up my mind at Christmas that I am keeping everything I got houses and sahres its definetly about time in market for me. If I was to sell I would only get toey and go again and cop transactions costs and take the risk of not picking the right suburb in the short term.
In fact I have started window shopping in Northern NSW for a buy/hold and move into later when I get out of the rat race. The AFR also said that Northern NSW still a strong growth area, I was surprised how high the rents are . Found some reaaly nice big props with decent land but will probably take a year of checking things out before I move.
Frosty buy for all the reasons you listed, there will always be a reason not to buy. Just watch that the holding costs are well within your budget.
Scamp wrote:I was looking for my previous posts , only to find that they all got deleted.
A shame, because there was some very interesting reading and warnings in there, also some nice replies from people. It was titled something like "Do not invest now, the property market is crashing" and was posted about a year ago.I wonder why an investment forum would have deleted that post…
Hey Scamp I remember some of your predictions on that thread eg ever increasing IR's, the mega bust in Sep 08, peak oil and a few more. Maybe just as well that they have dematerialised.
Beamseeker, I work in the industry and speak regularly with the management of the various proponents. In fact I spoke to someone yesterday and he said all good for Oct 09 only problem would be oil going sub $30pb otherwise Briitish Gas are very focussed on delivering LNG plant as are Santos, Arrow, Origin and their respective epartners. Its just that BG/QGC will be the first to commit.
Beamsseker, The LNG plant(s) in Gladstone have not yet had final approval. Most of the proponents are curently in the FEED phase now and the first Final Investment Desicion (FID) for LNG plant in Gladstone will be by QGC in Oct 09. Until then the projects are not guaranteed.
I think and hope they will fly but you need to know that it is not definite at the moment.
Well dont ask me two years ago I was convinced that inflation would keep rising and that IR's would to, then stay high and consequently fixed my investment loans for 5 years (ooch).
I now think they will drop further and that will be the bottom of the cycle. I wont be surprised if they rise faster than expected though. We are getting the deflation senario drummed into us but I am of the opinion that we are going to be going into an inflationary phase.
Central banks are going to print money until they run out of trees and if you increase the supply of something what does it do the value of it. ? Inflation is the preffered banker solution to a mis-managed economy and I belive that is what they are engineering even though they say the opposite as does the MSM.
to quote Hemingway
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.
another pearler
The best way to find out if you can trust somebody is to trust them.
Mark,
Unless you can get very good deals on the land component then new houses may not be the best option right now for all the reasons mentioned in the other posts. But as previously metioned there are more builders looking for work and some materail costs may have dropped in price so never a clear cut argument either way. Your net worth and appetite for risk and time devotion will also have some bearing on the suitability of this strategy for you. You could say spend a lot of time on some development and if you charge your time at the end you may make a small loss the question is would that wipe you out if not then maybe the risk is okay and if you make a small profit overall a worthwile project but not a wipeout if you dont. I take it that you are not interested in develop and hold.
With respect to some of your other big picture economic comments I to dont buy the deflation thing either that we are being bombarded with. How can the central banks be embarking on unprecedented printing campaigns and that not result in inflation ? I underatnd the theory of the velocity of money and right now it may be low velocity as the banks are hoarding the extra money but sooner or later the extra money must spill into the economy and that equates to inflation.
Central bankers prefer inflation to deflation and only by creating deflation fear can they by stealth create inflation.
With respect to theUS $ I have heard both sides of the argument on whether it will fall or not both extremely well argued I might say.
Not being in cash and being in debt my preference would be for inflation and US $ weakness.
House prices to drop 40% is a very general statement to make. Some overpriced high end props may do this but it is hard to see how say a $350K starter home will drop to $210K in my view.
Property Managers arent keen on this either.
