Market Update – November 2019
Here’s the latest summary of price trends around the country based on Core Logic’s latest housing price index data. I’ve also included August as I had missed last month.
Recall that rather than just looking at dwelling values, I prefer to look to the fine print of the data to see what’s happening to house prices, given they’re the biggest component of what’s driving property prices.
Results Summary
Best market for the month: Melbourne
Best market for the quarter: Melbourne
Best market for the year to date: Canberra
Best market for the year to September: Hobart & Canberra
Worst market for the month: Perth
Worst market for the quarter: Perth
Worst market for the year to date: Darwin
Worst market for the year to September: Darwin
Interpretation
A Steveism to remember is “you’ll see it on the street, before you see it in the stats.”
This is because it takes time to collate statistics, whereas the market momentum is dynamic and can be felt a lot quicker.
Looking at the results for October, the ‘stats’ and starting to vindicate the feeling on the ‘street’ – that a significant recovery is now underway in Sydney and Melbourne, rippling out across the country, except for Perth which continues to decline albeit at a slower pace.
We’re on track for the annual result for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide to be more or less break even by the end of the year, which is a big improvement on how things looked in August. Only Perth and Darwin look to remain in the doldrums.
With low interest rates set to continue for the foreseeable future, and with lending gradually (and I mean gradually) becoming more fluid and easier to access, there is some enough momentum to carry a positive property sentiment into 2020 meaning that the property market outlook is definitely now ‘a glass half full’.
Stats
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Value Index Tables (www.CoreLogic.com.au)
Note:
Red indicates a negative value, green indicates a positive value and white is neutral.
↑ represents an improvement, and ↓ represents a deterioration from the last month’s results.
Comments
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Dead cat bounce?
Definitely possible, but the momentum seems to have shifted more fundamentally now. At least that is what the street is telling me.
Hi there Steve. 😊 Thanks so much for the update cheers 🥂good to see Adelaide doing OK. People so negative here.. Thanks once again 😊
You’re very welcome Ange.
Hi Steve, thanks for the stats! How do you see Perth in the short to mid term? I am moving there for a new job so would love to hear your opinion. Thanks!
Nothing overly positive stats in respect to an improvement in Perth real estate.
I would need to defer to the feel on the street.
Hi Steve.
When do you think Brisbane will have its day to shine?
No signs of slowing down in Canberra on the ground. 10-15 people lining up for every rental open and about the same for most reasonably priced sale opens.