Trumped!
Against the odds, and contrary to the poll expectation, Donald Trump has won the 2016 US Presidential election.
What you may not realise is that the Republican Party (who are the conservatives – like the Liberal Party in Australia) now control the Presidency and the Congress thereby giving them power to make and pass laws a lot faster and with less opposition.
This worries some as Trump has stated that he has a reformist agenda with the hope of making America great again. His message clearly spoke to a disaffected middle class who are sick of career politicians and who voted in the hope that change will lead to change.
I can’t help wondering whether America voted with its heart, rather than its head. If you were electing a new Chairman to the largest listed company on the ASX, would you pick a person who had been bankrupt four times and has no prior relevant experience? This is why world financial markets reacted with initial shock, but they have already bounced back somewhat.
The ramifications for Australia of Trump being elected are more bad than good. We rely on international trade (i.e. exports), and Trump has said he has an agenda to disrupt trade agreements. We rely on the US as our ‘big brother’ for protection and stability in our region, and Trump has said that countries who want US protection will have to pay for it.
That said, the world won’t end and life will go on. The sun came up this morning, and I expect it will again tomorrow. Yes, change is coming, but at this time I’m comforted by the words the Apostle Paul wrote in Romans 13:1, “Let everyone be subject to the governing authorities, for there is no authority except that which God has established. The authorities that exist have been established by God”.
God Bless America!
Comments
Got something to say? Post a comment...
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Hi Steve, thanks for your prompt comments soon after Trump Presidency winning announcement. Back here in Aussie, my family worries about this new event happening, since my son, our daughters and ourselves have invested heavily in the Fund (according to our own capacity, that is). They normally would otherwise not be interested in who is the President of USA.
My own view of this is that since Donald is a very clever businessman, he would use his business instinct in his term of office to maximize USA’s influence and benefits. He is a great negotiator as well (looking at all his strategies used to climb up the political ladder), he would also bring the best deals for the America (or himself included?). So I guess USA will grow strong on economy.
I don’t believe people have voted with only their heart, and without thinking. Quite the opposite in fact.
Despite the history of lies, corruption, and trail of suspicious deaths the Clintons have left in their wake, the majority of the media set themselves against Trump from the start. Sadly, for many (worldwide), 1984 has largely become a reality: the media has become their conscience. Media thinks for ‘us’, selects which facts to present (if any), creates others, and then mocks all other viewpoints to make ‘us’ feel we’re foolish for not agreeing with them.
(It reminds me of how friends and family poo-poo thinking outside the box in regards to ‘doing things differently’.)
Well, journalism has certainly changed. Even long-time bastions of fact and reason – serious journalism – such as the NYT are now drip-fed their info from government. So in effect, what government wishes the people to think… is what the people think. It’s so pervasive, that ‘we’ now even defend their thoughts as our own. Is this not the definition of brainwashing?
It was only a surprise win to those who don’t turn off their TV, cease buying newspapers, and do their own due diligence: think for themselves.
Howso?
The vast majority of things Trump was accused of (all but one in fact), the Clinton camp was actually doing itself – and more of it – and to a worse extent.
The smallest difference in ratio, of Trump to Clinton audiences, was a factor of ten. It was painfully obvious the media would pan cameras around to show partly-empty Clinton rallys. But then pull in so tight on Trump, most of the time even his podium wasn’t visible.
It was not a surprise win.
I also find it odd that you Steve, would point to past bankruptcies as a concern.
First, USA debt has doubled under Obama. They cannot even service the interest. The only thing that prevents that dismal achievement being labelled a bankruptcy, is ‘the bank’ calling in the loan.
Second, in your books you speak of making mistakes – particularly early on in your investing. You also know that without calculated risk nothing is achieved so there is no gain. And that sometimes, no matter how much you prepare, things still go south. In fact I find the mild criticism a little odd. Because I see a lot of Trump in you (or vice versa) and found myself making many comparisons while watching the US election.
Third, Hillary’s financial ‘success’ has largely been due to hefty outside donations – a number of them quite dubious (to say the least). So while Trump is largely a self-made man, the Clintons are like the teenager that is still living at home in their late 30s.
Fourth, let’s not forget Trump himself has never gone bankrupt. Just as you rightly recommend, his businesses are legally separated from his personal wealth. So only individual business ventures have failed. He’s unlikley to put the entire country into one basket, so to speak – and certainly not without due diligence. Whereas Clinton seems to push ahead regardless of advice, Trump will do what he (and many of us have learned from you, Steve), to rely on others. e.g. It’s not reason that we should be cleaning toilets, when we can instead be researching the next investment.
As for countries like Australia paying for USA assistance – BRILLIANT! History proves that in a conflict, the USA typically allows the allied country to take the brunt of an attack. Only when the enemy has been reduce and the USA sees it can win, does it step in to save the day. (I’ve spoken to people in the USA who were oblivious to other countries taking part in WWII, even though the USA delayed involvement. Who did they think was doing the fighting!?)
In short, if we must pay for their assistance, perhaps they’ll turn up to the party a little earlier. And if the USA is no longer fabricating excuses to fight unnecessary wars (ala ‘Sadaam’s weapons of mass destruction’, all the way through to Clinton’s blaming of Russia, when even USA law enforcement departments were saying: “False!”)… then the USA will have ample resources available and the eagerness to do so.
Next, free trade agreements… that cause farmers to go out of business because they cannot compete – and which have somehow ensured citizens of each country involved now pay more to eat? Revising those is a good move too. Why? Well, how many times have you railed against negative gearing…
e.g. If a property investment can’t at least service its own debt, but preferably turn a profit – you advise to move on and find one that does. Why should a country be any different. You have suggested an increase in interest rates would actually stimulate our economy. But due to freetrade agreements, paying more has had the opposite effect – because the government collects a little tax, the producers here struggle or disappear, and the profit is exported.
It’s about time countries pulled back from such agreements, returned to being more self sufficient, and any higher prices paid go back to stimulate OUR country.
There is more I could say. But watching years of career politicians leaves me pessimistic Trump will do what he promised. However, SOMETHING is different this time. If Trump does just part of what he has promised, sure the world may chuck a toddler tantrum for a while, but it’s time to get the nappies (sorry Steve – diapers) off, and learn to walk again before we become fully dependent on being carried everywhere by others.
Very good comment, Greg – Sir James Goldsmith warned about the GATT in its early days (google him on youtube and interview). I am not a closed border type, but I have been waiting since the 1980s for the reaction of the ‘uneducated whites’ who have suffered from globalisation. Now we are seeing it. Renzi and EU next?
Time for true leadership to emerge, not that I expect Trump to be what is needed, only the lightning conductor for a while.
Excellent post Greg and Steve I am shocked that you feel that way about Trump especially with what is happening in Australia with weak politicians, weak borders, political correctness and a huge debt that has now reached over a trillion.
Great piece Greg – I agree with many of your points. Particularly the part:
“The vast majority of things Trump was accused of (all but one in fact), the Clinton camp was actually doing itself – and more of it – and to a worse extent.”
Where do I subscribe to your articles?
Hi Greg,
Along your lines but in a different vein. Rather than look at the individuals ask the question “who is supporting Trump?”. I asked the same question when in London and Brixit happened, which the USA election followed to the book in outcome. It is the silent majority, who have carried the brunt of Government policies & the speak of self interested elite who brain wash themselves into believing their own superiority and rhetoric. Where has deep thought and pragmatism gone : 1 + 1 = 2.
Johnson took the US off the Gold Standard in 1968 when gold no longer had to back the dollar. The gem hidden in the previous position was that inherently government spending was tied in with the GDP – very important.
I have heard many opinions on this but my thought is with the population growth of the world and in the Western economies, to have enough currency for all to get a fair share they would have had to dig a hell of a lot of gold and found somewhere secure to store it. Alternatively, they would have had a large percentage of their population on the poverty line and we know what happens then, social revolution.
So, increasing trade & manufacturing had to increase and printing money was almost forced to come into being – things may have continued to work until the great idea of globalization started, which basically means export your wealth creating activities (GDP will drop accordingly) to another country to exploit their poverty via their wealth accumulators/risk takers then pay them (increase your debt & send more money out of the economy) to bring it back & increase the profit margins of the multi national companies that take their profits back out of the country to avoid putting it back into the home economy!!!!!!. Now I am not an Academic but for the life of me when you cut to the chase this is what is happening.
What an idiotic idea was that, but it was covered up in fancy academic talk and the academic intelligent all got brainwashed and political common sense policies ran out the door and the Western economies ran down the road into the hands of Wall St and the Big Banks who had a field day playing with derivitives to use leverage to its enth degree and create a complexity in the world of finance that is beyond comprehension of the flow on effects of this behaviour.
The chickens have now come home to roost in all areas of our lives including the environment and population growth….. now what?
Before America can do anything it must fix its economy and that means bringing wealth creating activities back into its country to stimulate employment and then to address the issue of making sure the money stays in the country to circulate within the economy, which means reining in the multi-nationals Companies and the outrageous salaries to their Company Leaders.
Are these the thoughts of the silent majority of the USA? They are mine in simple terms….. reason gets lost in complexity is my experience.
TRUMP WILL BE PRESIDENT !
If you follow ‘CNN’ through the last six months then you would have been totally shocked by the Presidential result. But if you listened to the equally biased ‘Fox News’ for the same period you would see the result as still a bit of a surprise – but certainly not unexpected.
I thought the presenters of both of these international news organizations went against the generally accepted presentation of news as being the facts without bias.
Nevertheless it has to be recognized that America has lost its way both nationally and internationally and this is borne out with billions of dollars financing wars for 15 years in Afghanistan. Billions of dollars fighting the “Five Day War” in Iraq which the aftermath has caused the total disintegration of the country. Trying to overthrow the legitimate President of Iran. At one time agreeing to assist Russia defeat the rebels – then blaming Russia for not doing what america wanted.. Not assisting Georgia in seeking independence from Russia Bending at the knee to Saudi Arabia. Spending a few more Billion dollars in Yemen and getting no-where.
Back home in America black people are shooting white policeman in retaliation for police shooting black people. There are even black police shooting other black people.
There is increased terrorism in the streets of America brought on by people who in some cases were immigrants who have never been screened before being given citizenship. One million Americans are earning less money than they did 17 years ago.
In the Primaries Hillary Clinton openly declared that she would close all the coal mines in Pennsylvania – and not one conciliatory word to the miners who would lose their jobs.
Not enough attention was paid to the FBI into first accusing her of using easily scammed private computers to transmit over 35,000 ‘TOP SECRET’ communications.
Then saying she was innocent – Then accusing her again of finding another 350,000 private communications. It was one lie after another by Hillary Clinton.
Not enough attention was given to the leak that the Clinton Organization that Bill Clinton had profited by $250,000.000 by attending rallies and speaking engagements on behalf of the Clinton Organization. A case of the rich (both Democratic and Republican) “Fat Cats” getting richer at the expense of the average American.
The huge fall in stock markets world wide was not because of Donald Trump being a long standing politician being elected and everything continuing along as before. But the huge initial fall came because it was totally unexpected and not factored in as a possible result.
Consequently stock holders panicked and thought better to “sell now rather than later”. But it was interesting to note the comments of one senior American stockbroker who said’ The result of this election has created the biggest “buy opportunity” in the last 20 Years”.
Even more interesting was the that the deep canyon of of those quitting stock at 3.00 am was taken up by smart investors buying back 50% of the “fire-sale”. As one stock broker said their was millions lost overnight – but there were also millions made overnight.
There are commentators here in Australia who are still trying to justify comments stated over the last six months in criticism of Donald Trump who went to a Military College – graduated from College – inherited his fathers construction business worth a $ Million dollars – turned it into a multi-billion dollar business- had at least one business go into liquidation – lost a billion dollars – gained a billion dollars – and today at the lowest estimation is worth over five billion dollars.
Donald Trump is known as a hard-nosed businessman and great at seeing both the strongest and the weakest point of a business deal- as well as the exact same qualities in the staff he chooses. Whom incidentally many have been with him for over ten years.
Now surely that would say this man is very experienced! Yes ! he is knew at politics but has a very solid background – has access to the best advisers in America – and he is not beholden to return favours for support to any political person. Unlike Hillary who would have to return a thousand favours if elected.
So we just might see a government similar to Ronald Regan who had no political background and became one of the best and most loved Presidents in history.
Dwight Eisenhower was a great army general with no political background but did an extremely good job as President of the United States of America.
Instead of all these commentators who got their “pick” wrong – instead of only criticising without foundation – just recognize that Donald Trump will become the President of the United States of America in January 2017 – and let him have his “First 100 Days in Office”.
Then if you are still not happy – bu all means continue your rhetoric.
Disappointed to see Steve picking out some chapter 11 restructuring to try and spin it as personal bankruptcies somehow being an indicator. Of all the criticisms of Trump available, misrepresenting that is an odd choice. For a property investor, I would expect a lot more given that Trump is a legitimate billionaire property investor who has thrown off so much free cashflow he has spent the last eighteen months flying around in his own 757 deciding to self find a presidential bid.
More interesting is how Trump used a completely different strategy, against all advice and naysayers, and won the presidency using a fraction of the cash spent by the losing republican and democrat candidates. That is exactly the sort of thinking that property investors need to be looking at and emulating.
I remember a guy often saying that ‘success comes from doing things differently’. Trump just load out the canonical example of that. We could have got the same ‘trump scary oooh’ talking points from the media – in fact that’s all we got, and they couldn’t have been more wrong if they tried. Please try a little more insight next time.
Loved your article Greg,especially your take on the media.If your living standards had been decimated,no amount of rhetoric could compensate you for what you had lost. The democrats have presided over plummeting living standards. Any alternative would therefore be better. I saw a TV program on the weekend where decent American houses were selling for just $15000. When they didn’t sell, they were bulldozed and the land sold or used for other purposes.Imagine if you had been evicted,as the original owner, from one of these houses. Who would you vote for? Here in Australia, the career pollies are fighting what the definition of an insult should be at a time when we need major structural reform to the manufacturing sector of our economy. Listen to parliament and you hear the poor vision pollies have for Australia as they turn on one another in debate.And then you have the greedy. The CBA boss doesnt give a brass razoo about the rest of the world. He wants more millions added to his pay for doing a job that any of us could do. We need to get real because the media wont. Start a movement?
Greg, excellent points you make. I would point out that here in the USA we at least still have some media, albeit very small section of the media, that don’t sing to the same tune as the major newspapers and broadcasters who see it as their role to train the populace how to think and behave.
Unfortunately in Australia, as you know, the media has been very much muzzled by the government. Broadcasters and journalists must do their job under constant threat they may face charges of offending under legislation that creates it an offence to offend.
The Australian media made it very clear to Australians that should they support the One Nation political party or even express sympathy with any aspect of One Nation party policy that they are pariahs from civilized society. For the most part Australians have complied and continue to support the major political parties.
Journalists have known for some time that they cannot speak their mind without being at best ridiculed and condemned and at worst jailed. Now even cartoonists and university students are learning that they too must comply and behave in the way they are directed to behave.
The election of Trump is an indication that many people still have a desire to think independently and that they retain a love of the country as they remember it. If Australian politicians continue to see it as their role to take from the people the country they love the risk is that one day the people may wake up and take action.
As at day two of President elect Trump there is a widespread feeling of hope amongst Americans that jobs and prosperity and freedoms might return and that the country can still be saved.
Some really great comments on this post, particularly from Greg.
What I have found astounding about this whole thing is how every Australian is now a foreign correspondent!
I know its common practice in Australia to be an expert on the hot topic. I found the transition from spring racing experts to political experts quite seamless. Two weeks ago every post on facebook was “How good is Winx, best weight for age….” even though that’s the first run they have seen. This week every post is “Cannot believe trump won! World is going to end….”.
As per above, 95% of Australians do not even have an idea why they believe Trump won. They know nothing about politics (myself included in this mind you) but are more than happy to have a strong opinion..why? I know the answer, they siumply got fed their thoughts from the media. Their is zero due dilligence here.
Its like a clueless investor buying an investment property because “property doubles every 7 years…i want to save tax”.
What do we call this? We call it pure speculation. If you do not research a subject and put in the time, then you are a speculator. So i consider almost every Australian a speculator of this whole USA presidential debate.
And what do i think about the result? NOTHING! I have not spent the time learning about it or understanding it so I do not have an opinion.
Ben, in my case I do spend a lot of time in the USA for business. A lot of people have asked me for opinions and projections and have been shocked that I was correct after the election. The only superpower I have is not watching or reading any Australian media. And I do mean none. I suggest others develop a similar superpower – particularly when it comes to Australian property and the economy.
I suggest those of you who expressed yourself supportive of the newly elected president Trump watch the 2015 German movie “Look who’s back”, here are the trailers the YouTube with the English subtitles: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AtW1Lq5c04E
Don’t fall for the funny and/or absurd moments in the trailers – the film is obviously a comedy but the raised subject is quite serious. It’s been shot in the “Borat”-like style: there is a plot of “the führer” coming back from the year 1945 into the modern Germany, deciding to pursue a political career – with the help of a local TV channel, and a team of professional actors playing the set, but the interviews the “führer” conducts are obtained with real people, who are expressing their own views, most completely forgetting about the camera and the fact “führer” is not real.
You might find little (or not so little) Trump inside yourself, the question is whether you like that part of you or not. And if you do like it, perhaps ask yourself why – in order to find the real reason of your approval, and whether there are ways of getting what you want without unleashing your inner Trump into the wild.
After all, one of the führer’s topmost appeals was making Germany great again.