- Where do you expect the RBA's cash rate to be in 12 months?
Hi all,
This thread is for discussion of this poll. Please submit your vote and your thoughts on why!
Benny
With the Cash Rate currently at 2.0, I don’t see it going much lower – maybe just one more tick….
But then, I’d not want to see it crank up again too quickly. So, down 0.25 then back up a similar amount?
Voting for the status quo over 12 months. What say you?
Benny
The RBA may lower rates over the next 6-9 months. It won’t make much difference however as the banks will keep the bulk of it for them selves, whilst still raising interest rates to investors to cover the loss of profit from the decline in lending to the investment sector.
I’ve been surprised how much the USA financial talking heads have been commenting that Yellen might push off the September 0.25% rise until December (or later), is it concerning to anyone else that the market feels so week that a 4% devaluation in the Yuan is such a big deal….eg. is the economy more in the toilet than us mere mortals are being led to believe.
Whats the take by the Australian media/business world on what this means for Australia?
Lol any local articles about poor Chinese now having to pay 4% more for their overseas investment properties?
Down and down! IMO the APRA changes have been put in place assuming that interest rates are going to continue to be forced down… but house prices would continue to soar on the East Coast if investment property lending wasn’t stemmed and hence why the tougher APRA standing on investment property lending
Adelaide Buyer’s Agent | Independent Property Consulting Adelaide
http://www.ipcproperty.com.au
Email Me | Phone MeStefan Miraglia - The Adelaide Buyer's Agent from Independent Property Consulting
Strong view with the banks that there will be a 25 basis point decrease in November – I’m inclined to agree.
Redwood | REDWOOD | SMSF | PROPERTY | FINANCE
http://redwoodadvisory.com.au
Email Me | Phone MeSMSF - PROPERTY INVESTMENT - WEALTH CREATION AND FINANCE SOLUTIONS
Once upon a time, bank interest rates were closely tied to, and tracked the RBA cash rate. This has not been the case lately.
Irrespective of whether the RBA lowers the cash rate, it does not directly follow that the banks will do the same (particularly in the case of investment loans and fixed rate loans).
Jacqui Middleton | Middleton Buyers Advocates
http://www.middletonbuyersadvocates.com.au
Email Me | Phone MeVIC Buyers' Agents for investors, home buyers & SMSFs.
“Once upon a time, bank interest rates were closely tied to, and tracked the RBA cash rate.”
So true, Jacqui. I watched (in horror) as the gap steadily widened after the GFC hit. What had hitherto been a 1.3% gap quickly became 2%+ Nice work if you can get it – become a Bank.
And, much like RE agent’s fees (where the 2.5% commission was once the MAXIMUM commission that could be sought, but now it is accepted widely as normal to charge the lot) the “new normal” should see Banks continuing with their golden hands more deeply in our pockets for some time. Short of some other “upstart” bank adding some heat by under-cutting the others, I’d think those margins will remain high for quite some time, and especially while the rates remain so low.
Benny
Agree Benny, this whole APRA 10% investor limit is being used as a rort by the banks to push up their profit margins.
Im thinking 50 basis points lower in 12 months, not that it will all be passed on, especially to investors.
Agree Benny, this whole APRA 10% investor limit is being used as a rort by the banks to push up their profit margins.
Meanwhile they forcefully shed market share and have reduced profitability from higher deposit requirements.
Corey Batt | Precision Funding
http://www.precisionfunding.com.au
Email Me | Phone MeInvestment Focused Finance Strategist - servicing Australia-wide
Well, here we are twelve months later – Seems I was too conservative in my outlook…. How did you fare?
We were at 2% Cash Rate in August last year, and I was saying status quo, or maybe one tick lower. Blew ME out of the water, as we are at 1.5% now, and still some bias toward getting lower.
I wonder what other polls are now 12 months down the track…. Hmmmm….. ;)
Benny
Nice work if you can get it – become a Bank.
Interestingly…..I’ve take that advice to heart :)
Still not official yet but I’m a 1% foundational shareholder of an offshore bank planning to do exactly that….!!
The irony that comes from St George knocking back expats working overseas on their portfolio loans might actually cost them more than they think…..
Hi Dean,
The irony that comes from St George knocking back expats working overseas on their portfolio loans might actually cost them more than they think…..
I N T E R E S T I N G !!!!
You will be keeping in touch, no doubt? Good luck with it,
Benny
Hi Dean,
The irony that comes from St George knocking back expats working overseas on their portfolio loans might actually cost them more than they think…..
I N T E R E S T I N G !!!!
You will be keeping in touch, no doubt? Good luck with it,
BennyI’ll be sure to post back here early next year with the details however because of Australian regulations loans will only be able to be written for expats offshore (I know what a weird quirk……can be written against Australian property…..but only if you don’t reside in Australia).
I figure my wife wasn’t the only one getting screwed over by St George so when the investment memorandum proposal crossed my desk I was happy to chip into their initial foundational funding round.
I’ll go on record to predict 1.0 percent by the end of this financial year :)
But not without some help from APRA…
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This reply was modified 8 years, 1 month ago by
Jason Staggers.
Jason Staggers | JasonStaggers.com
http://jasonstaggers.com
Email MeWhat sort of “Apra” help are you proposing?
I expect the Fed to cut rates back to zero, which would put pressure on the RBA to continue cutting rates. But that could continue to fuel home price rises, so APRA will need to help out by preventing an excessive amount of new credit from flowing into housing. This would come in the form of capital controls of sorts on banks.
Jason Staggers | JasonStaggers.com
http://jasonstaggers.com
Email Me -
This reply was modified 8 years, 1 month ago by
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