All Topics / Help Needed! / Past Future performance and Market value

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  • Wiwin
    Participant
    @wiwin
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 30

    I read as much as I can. Many property investing book said market value is the price of similar property sold in your area(block). I am doing my research n narrow down to a couple choices of suburb. Good rental yield above 6% and good capital growth potential min 5% or chance of growth spurt suburb.

    Now I am confused

    There is a unit in gosford after 10 years passed sold for less (20-40k losses )
    There is a house in penrith after 1 year sell for extra 100k Capital Gain ( prev year only 300k ) – not sold yet –
    There is a house in wodonga after 15 years sold for only 20k Capital Gain from 200k capital base

    However I noticed there is some houses on the next block perform in contrary.

    I don’t really wanna buy wrong ip in the wrong suburb and gain no capital gain after 10 years.
    It made me wonder how come after 10 years they were sold without any gain? Are they sold under market value ?
    And for Penrith, according to your investment property magazine, capital growth for the last 12 months is 15% but seller marked it up over 33%? Is it mean that the property over market value ? The median price 450 but they offered it on 550k-600k

    I really would like to invest in Wodonga for the benefit of positive gearing, affordability and going to be next hotspot due to high development ( hotspotting.com.au ) however Wodonga’s past performance made me nervous. As Penrith already proved good performance in the past and I believe will going strong in the future as well however investment in Penrith will cost me twice from Wodonga. I don’t really wanna put all my eggs in one basket.

    Any input ? Are there any possibility I checked the worse house in the worse street in Wodonga?
    But the house looks nice, clean , open area and I like the style – it’s definitely look better compared some other houses I checked in other suburb which costs double or even triple.

    hence how do you know which one is the best street and which one is the worse street ?
    Should I check one by one with local real estate agent?

    Thank you, any valuable advice and input will highly appreciated.

    Profile photo of PHPPHP
    Participant
    @php
    Join Date: 2014
    Post Count: 111

    Wiwin,

    Median price and average market value is not the same. Be careful not to get confused there.
    <moderator: delete advertising>

    Cheers!

    PHP | Mortgage Station Pty Ltd
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    Profile photo of CatalystCatalyst
    Participant
    @catalyst
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 1,404

    You can ‘t pick one house in a sub urb and work out what the suburb is doing.

    Sometimes people sell properties to relatives or their company cheap for tax reasons.

    The Penrith one may have had a major renovation. Although a capital gain in Penrith of 400k in the last 2 years would not be uncommon.

    I’d say that was pretty typical of Albury/Wodonga. They have had very little capital gain in the last 4 years, probably more.

    Profile photo of RichardRichard
    Participant
    @richardppiadvice-com-au
    Join Date: 2014
    Post Count: 20

    Is your focus on the suburb its price point, or does that particular market offer additional opportunity?

    Market conditions change, its part of the game. If your strategy is dependent on growth alone, then the time it takes to grow is your biggest risk. If you can do something to the property physically to hasten this process then you have some control on this risk. If you are waiting for the market to do all the work, then you are exposing yourself to the ‘time in the market’ risk most ‘buy/ hold and wait’ investors experience.

    Rather than concern yourself with picking the perfect suburb, perhaps focus on your criteria, to ensure the property product is likely to achieve the outcome you desire. If you know what you want from property, you have a better chance of picking a product that is likely to contribute to this outcome. Remember it will take more than one property to retire you (if this is your outcome), so this next investment needs to offer a path to more investment.

    Consider how its going to achieve this result, whether you can keep it or have to sell to continue accumulating, and what time you will sacrifice making it so.

    As you become more experienced, you will compare only the time it takes to achieve an outcome, not whether or not it will happen. Given enough time, just about any investment will offer some return…

    • This reply was modified 10 years ago by Profile photo of Richard Richard.

    Richard | PPI Investment Advice
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    Wiwin
    Participant
    @wiwin
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 30

    Thanks PHP. I can’t see why median price is different from average market value. but i will find out about it.
    Thanks for your offer i really appreciate it.

    Catalyst i can see your point.
    Richard, I am looking to build my portfolio with investing in cash positive gearing property min. 7% rental yield with moderate capital growth potential min 3-5% annum. Would need to look for affordable established suburb with future development project, future population growth and min population 10K. Will diversified in location and type of property to avoid land tax. Prefer 2x250k purchased rather than 1x500k to minimize my risk. Not interested buying new or off the plan, but would like to buy under market value or buy cheap – upgrade it with cosmetic renovation. will set up Line of credit with offset account and withdraw feature.

    so if i am buying the property , i will expect cash flow to cover the mortgage and expenses, tax deduction as a bonus, and capital gain potential for next deposit investment. Am i in the right track ? That’s why i pick up suburbs with potential future hotspots and start narrowing down at the property and get confused by its property performance. It just make no sense for me.

    I don’t expect to sell my property asap but i will be expecting the price will go up – If i am waiting for 20 years and gain nothing but weekly cash $50 then having a problem to sell it ( looking for buyer or worse – losses – since the price was down ) then i better switch my preference suburb.

    Any advice guys? Am my expectation and strategy too high or unrealistic ? But this is my future that i am betting it. I don’t wanna make a mistake and regret it for years.

    Profile photo of RichardRichard
    Participant
    @richardppiadvice-com-au
    Join Date: 2014
    Post Count: 20

    Cheap stock in the sticks for neutral gearing at purchase is not my preferred approach. Perhaps others on this site are better suited to address this for you?

    If it were me, I’d apply your research to an ‘inner city’ as you can get for your money land based site, with a dual income option or value add yield option to bridge the cash flow gap. I’d prioritise the location and land size over the dwelling standard, obviously ensuring the product can still be rented @ market. Employ the value add to try and manufacture equity, ensuring the ‘improvements’ at least value up – you can forecast this. Best case create equity, worst case increase my market share to attract higher returns, funded from yield. In either case, a potential path to hasten the capacity for further investment.

    Last tips, I don’t chase premiums in the market. Reno only to the majority product standard, ensuring majority demand and I use design to plan these next steps, so I can borrow to afford them, rather than funding from cash or equity.

    Richard | PPI Investment Advice
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    Profile photo of BennyBenny
    Moderator
    @benny
    Join Date: 2002
    Post Count: 1,416

    Hi Wiwin,
    A quick primer on average and median – average is derived from all sold prices added up and divided by number of properties. Averages can be skewed if sales are heavy (say) at the top end. e.g. imagine a suburb that has 5 houses sell last month – 2 at $250k, 1 at 300k, 1 at $400k, and 1 at $600k. Total is $1,800k – divide that by 5 (number sold) and the average is $360k.

    The median price for that group is simply the middle property price in the group. Thus, the median is $300k. Of course, most suburbs will have a larger number of sales than just 5 – but it shows you HOW it happens.

    Some investors say “Buy below Meidan price”. This gives you the best chance of adding value – whether by reno, good bargaining, or whatever. Lower priced properties are affordable to more renters, thus increasing your market.

    Benny

    Wiwin
    Participant
    @wiwin
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 30

    Thanks a million Benny. I got your points loud and clear.

    For Richard, inner city means big or capital city like Sydney or Brisbane ? or just CBD from regional city ?
    I am sorry for being novice but i don’t really get it.

    So your strategy bought a house in inner city ( land component ), get granny flat ( dual income ) ,add value ( reno ? ) – refinance – get equity for next deposit ?
    While it sounds really good plan, i don’t think i can afford it.
    I can imagine i need a million at least for that – and don’t think i will find a lender who is willing to lend me.

    I am setting my budget at 250-300k ( max. 400k ) with hopefully a bit of cosmetic reno.

    Thank you very much for your advice – i really appreciated it.

    Profile photo of PHPPHP
    Participant
    @php
    Join Date: 2014
    Post Count: 111

    Hi Wiwin,
    A quick primer on average and median – average is derived from all sold prices added up and divided by number of properties. Averages can be skewed if sales are heavy (say) at the top end. e.g. imagine a suburb that has 5 houses sell last month – 2 at $250k, 1 at 300k, 1 at $400k, and 1 at $600k. Total is $1,800k – divide that by 5 (number sold) and the average is $360k.

    The median price for that group is simply the middle property price in the group. Thus, the median is $300k. Of course, most suburbs will have a larger number of sales than just 5 – but it shows you HOW it happens.

    Some investors say “Buy below Meidan price”. This gives you the best chance of adding value – whether by reno, good bargaining, or whatever. Lower priced properties are affordable to more renters, thus increasing your market.

    Benny

    This would be my answer too regarding the Median VS Average question. Thanks Benny for the quick follow up!

    PHP | Mortgage Station Pty Ltd
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    Profile photo of RichardRichard
    Participant
    @richardppiadvice-com-au
    Join Date: 2014
    Post Count: 20

    CBD doesn’t mean millions from my experience, there is plenty of market for all budgets. I was referring to a CBD like Brisbane, which you can afford for $400K, within 10-12kms of the CBD.

    A recent regional example was on the sunshine coast where you can buy duplex sites with an existing dwelling on them for less than $400K, I had a client secure one very recently. I think its still in its settlement period actually. The suburb offers leading growth for the area, rather than generic ripple and with design and reno it can be split into 2 dwellings.

    As mentioned in my previous post, using design to borrow to future value, allows the product to potentially create equity, but definitely add market share and extra income which contributes to your serviceability and hasten your portfolio development.. I’m sure the brokers on this forum have achieved this many times on behalf of clients.

    There are lots of strategies, sometimes it pays to afford some expertise to help you understand your potential and give the direction and clarity you need to commit and participate.

    Richard | PPI Investment Advice
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    Wiwin
    Participant
    @wiwin
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 30

    Ok. Excellent advice Richard. I really appreciated that.

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