Hello all,
I have owned the book 'building wealth through investment property by Jan Somers' for about 7 years. I have tried to read it many many ties with no success. Maybe because I dont enjoy reading or maybe I was not completely understanding.
Today I write as I am half way through, yay for me and yay to you guys for giving me the motivation to give this book yet another go.
I havent learned alot yet, but that is probably because I have been learning so much from this forum. What I do notice and did notice last time I tried to read is that the facts do not seem to match the current reality. (of course I should have read the book 7yrs ago and it would have been current). My point being, that she talks of historical trends seeing house prices increase in excess of 10% per annum (this is as I had always been taught) however based on the figures in the book the median price of a home in Melbourne now would be $1,143,000.
Thus I am seeking opinions as I am a little perplexed. I have witnessed enormous growth in house prices from say 2003 – 2009. So why is it that the figures Jan had used are soo far off. I checked her figures during the 20yrs of 1960 – 1980 and they seemed about right @ 11% growth. But the 1990 to 2010 seemed to show more like a 5% annual growth rate (1990 median value $150k – 2010 median value $1,143,000.
I see one of four options
– the numbers are wrong
– I am too stupid to understand them
– The change will balance out in future
– The hisotically proven 10% per annum no longer exists?Hello Intrigue,
haha you are very funny and definitely not stupid at all.
If property was all the same it would be an easy game like a level playing field.
Jan was right for her time and was a pioneer to be respected.
Steve who owns this site if he started today would possibly fail.
I have a rich brother and one of his sayings is … making money is all about timing and luck??
I would check every 10 year segment as a cross check … prices going up is all about demand but that said there are 1000 other factors to take into account.
From a different view don’t work on growth but work on cash flow … you will also find that some areas may come down while others perform better like closer to CBDs … if you buy in a mining town and the mine closes down you now have a liability.
Keep reading and take the good with the bad … Jan was/is a great lady, I personally respect her and what she has done, not saying that you don’t.
Go to her web site and post the question and she will answer you.
What I like about you is the fact you are analyzing the numbers, this is a very good sign you are definitely smarter than you think haha keep up the good work and hang in there lots of more lessons to learn.
Philip Sigglekow
LREA authorThanks Philip,
Look out I am on yoursite now, digging for gems!Go girl ….. We’ll all get there !!
Thanks Intrigue, Check out my new video library. Love to help … also now I am giving away ALL my goals coaching electronic books … look for the green box on the bottom. Forget the gems go for the diamonds "girl" my wife does haha opps hurt! love to spoil my girls, <moderator: delete expletive> they were right when they said "diamonds and pearls" Kindest regards Philip Sigglekow LREA author
How old is the book – it was written 15 years or more ago wasn’t it.
I remember it was a great read at the time in the 90’s – well done for reading it, but there are lots of more up to date books – search this forum
Long time between drinks I know, but when in the late 90s I read what Jan Somers said in her book about the annual compound interest rate of growth for inner city Australian property over a period of 30 years being 11%, I checked it out with an old friend who had previously puchased an inner city property thirty years earlier. The caclulated result for the then value of his property, after 30 years, came out at 10.99% per year. I was sold on Jan’s claim, and I have kept my inner city property. This year (2024) it has been 30 years since I bought it – Jan’s statement was spot on.
The Australian inner city property compound growth rate – over 30 years – is 11.00%. There have been times where growth has gone sideways for multiple years, but the longer it has done that the more rapid was the eventual return to the mean (graph) of 11.00% per annum.
based on the figures in the book the median price of a home in Melbourne now would be $1,143,000.
Google tells me the medican is around $933,000 as of sept 2023 so she was not that far off.
I see one of four options – the numbers are wrong
Keep in mind they were predictions
Terryw | Structuring Lawyers Pty Ltd / Loan Structuring Pty Ltd
http://www.Structuring.com.au
Email MeLawyer, Mortgage Broker and Tax Advisor (Sydney based but advising Aust wide) http://www.Structuring.com.au
Oh i just realised that first post was written in 2010 so 14 years ago!
Terryw | Structuring Lawyers Pty Ltd / Loan Structuring Pty Ltd
http://www.Structuring.com.au
Email MeLawyer, Mortgage Broker and Tax Advisor (Sydney based but advising Aust wide) http://www.Structuring.com.au
Hi Terry,
I doubt Google’s validity in this regard.
In this regard we need to bear in mind that realtime, quoted, property prices fluctuate, sometimes wildly. Jan Somers was speaking about the 30 year average – which I have found to be accurate for a property held for the past 30 years, as well examining the price of an inner city property in the late 1990s, purchased the 30 years prior to that.. She was exclusively referring to inner city property.
In far shorter time periods than 30 years, I note the longer the price goes sideways, the faster it will eventually return to the 30 year mean compound interest rate of 11% as indicated on a time vs price graph i.e. long static price periods and rapid increases.
Where I live, the sideways motion can be as long as five or ten years. But over the longer term, Jan’s forecast has been accurate over the past 60 years in this location.
The fact that the original comment was made in 2010 does not derail Jan’s thesis.
Cheers
A qualification – I believe Jan was speaking of `landed property.’
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