Personally, …I find it a bit hard to believe that a 'property boom' is on the way again… but, with ANZ stating recently "the mother of all booms is on the way" and now this quote from:
"CommSec chief equities economist Craig James said a "triple whammy'' of factors was paving the way for a property boom once interest rates are cut again." you start to wonder..
I feel that here in SE Qld there may be a little upturn soon, possibly 2nd quarter next year especially with the new Stamp Duty & Mortgage Duty Concessions coming into effect on September 1. Possibly creating a flurry of buyers stimulating the lower priced end of the property market which eventually will trickle up the property ladder….?
but, on the other side, maybe the cashed up migrants from overseas will find it hard to sell up over there, to move here with their property markets a bit flat, …slowing down some of the high demand for real estate here, thus balancing out the market??
What does anyone else feel?? (without any personal attacks please, or excessive D&G Diatribe).
just visit GPHC for a complete analysis and all the info you need.
Will there be a boom ? Ofcourse there will be.
When ? maybe in 10 years… maybe in 20 years…. who knows.Will there be a boom in the next 3 years ?
hahahahaha(h)not sure what these bank guys are on, but I want some!
maybe they just need to say something outrageous to get column inches in the press…or maybe they are just screwed in the head
I agree. No way will there be a boom over the next few years. But we do have all the ingredients for one. Low supply,high demand,rising rents,Possible rate cuts soon. But i dont think these are enough to combat the high house prices and personal debt we have in Australia. What i do believe they will do is soften the down turn so hopefully we will see a weaker slump than in the US and UK. So i am expecting a slow down with value slumps in most areas. But not a complete 40% crash as some predict.
NOT
I think its all rubbish, these bank ceos make these comments to benifit themselves (the banks) . In my opinion property prices are going to go down before they go up (and I dont think they will make an upward movement for years to come) , people talk about the shortage of houses and land, all you need to do is pick up your weekend paper and take a look at all the houses in the real estate section, or drive out to the outta suburbs and take a look at all the for sale signs on the vacant blocks of land. There is NOT a shortage of houses at the moment what there is a shortage of is money and people that can afford to pay the prices for these houses. Once house prices come down and 'meet' the market then you will see them slowly go back up but how far they will go down we will just have to wait and see. My advice to first home buyers, dont buy a house for 2-3 yrs , If houses dont sell then the prices will go down… Investers, banks and land developers want people to 'panic buy', Panic buying is what investers and speculators want and alot of people during the boom fell for it and now im sure alot of those people are regreting it, my advice stay at home if you can of if you need to rent share it with 2-3 other people so you can still save for a deposit. Thats what im doing, I live in perth, there is 17 000 houses and blocks for sale at the moment with no buyers, soon (in the next 6 months) there will be even more houses for sale when peoples fixed interest rates go from 6% to 9%, and if there is a recession and unemployment goes up there will be more banks taking houses and more houses for sale. Way to many ifs and buts for my liking, ill keep my ass outta the property market for now thank-you
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devo76 wrote:But we do have all the ingredients for one.Low supply
Wrong. 900.000 empty houses on the market. That doesn't even include the amount of land for sale.
devo76 wrote:high demandWrong again. Poms ( the biggest migrators ) can't sell their houses, they will stay in UK. The upcoming recession will also take demand away. More and more people will migrate AWAY from Australia as they can't make a living and can't pay for the houses. There are more houses being built than houses needed for immigration. Immigration is at 200.000, that means you need 80.000 houses per year. More are built every year than that, EVEN NOW when everything miraculously 'thinks' that there are no houses being built at all. Wakie wakie !
devo76 wrote:rising rentsWrong again. Rents are DROPPING. Like I have said many times before.
devo76 wrote:Possible rate cuts soon.Wrong again.
ummester wrote:NOTthanks for that valuable contribution, what were you not-ing about?
scamp you keep trotting out the UK immigrant thing, are you trapped in a time warp or something.
UK immigrants make up about 15% of the total, http://www.diac.gov.au/media/publications/statistics/immigration-update/update_june07.pdf
do what you like with UK immigrants, there are a queue of others. Surely you can come up with more convincing negatives than this drivel
"devo76 wrote:
rising rents
Wrong again. Rents are DROPPING. Like I have said many times before."
No Scamp he is not wrong, he has a different opinion to you. Rents are now rising, they may fall in your opinion. Despite your towering ego , you saying something does not automatically mean its a fact
devo76 wrote:But we do have all the ingredients for one.Low supply
Wrong. 900.000 empty houses on the market. That doesn't even include the amount of land for sale.
devo76 wrote:high demandWrong again. Poms ( the biggest migrators ) can't sell their houses, they will stay in UK. The upcoming recession will also take demand away. More and more people will migrate AWAY from Australia as they can't make a living and can't pay for the houses. There are more houses being built than houses needed for immigration. Immigration is at 200.000, that means you need 80.000 houses per year. More are built every year than that, EVEN NOW when everything miraculously 'thinks' that there are no houses being built at all. Wakie wakie !
devo76 wrote:rising rentsWrong again. Rents are DROPPING. Like I have said many times before.
devo76 wrote:Possible rate cuts soon.Wrong again.
Wow you have such definative answers. I must know where you buy your crystal ball from. Mine is not as reliable as yours.
My area has been flat since the 2001 boom but rents are rising FACT. Understand?. This can be said for most of nsw. I dont care where you get your info from. This is what people who rent in my area tell me.Work mates,friends,family. Plus my rent has gone up. Where the hell are they dropping. And dont give me a small % drop stuck between months of rent rises.I want a solid trend.
I will leave the rest of your post alone as im sure you will come back with some more facts from your side of the world.My point being yes things will get rough. But there are things in play here in Australia that will soften the blow. Not shield all together but atleast protect us from a worse case cenario.
rising rents
Scamp Says: Wrong again. Rents are DROPPING. Like I have said many times before.
Hmm… I don't know where you live scamp, But i'm having no trouble at all pushing my rents up like there is no tomorrow.
Last house i rented got 10% more than i was hoping for, and rented within 1 day…!! AWSOME..!!Australia IS the worst case scenario. In every aspect.
Your 'soft landing' won't happen. It's too late for that. Australia should have done something about it during last crisis… now you indeed get a TRIPLE whammy. But not one of the good kind. Crystal ball isn't needed, just do maths, add up the sums, and you get a HUGE negative number that CANNOT possibly be paid back by your 'mining boom'… ( which doesn't exist ).
Other news for you , in case this comes to a surprise to you : We've gone beyond the top of the commodities boom. It's over.. commodities are going down accross the board.. guess what the cause is.. ?
oooh.. wait.. let me look into my crystal ball… yes I see it… it becomes clearer now… yes… it says "… recession…. coming…. your way"
Samp were are you from ?
yarpos wrote:ummester wrote:NOTthanks for that valuable contribution, what were you not-ing about?
Yarpos, where is your literal undertanding. The thread was entitled property boom or not. My answer was quite clear.
Well Mackar. You asked for restrained posts and they jumped on it like seagulls on a chip.One thing you can take from this is that when you mix facts past and present with peoples emotions. All you really get is predictions. And many of them a biased towards there own thinking be it positive or negative. I think nearlly all believe that there will be a slump to some degree over the next year or two. The only argument is to what extent. Best thing to do ( what im doing) is cash up with finances ready,watch what happens over the next few months. And if you find are bargain that stands up over the long term then go from there. There is always a million reasons not to buy property. This can be said for every slump we have had in the past. Nothing has changed. The smart people instead of living in fear ,are looking for there next deal that will shine in the future after the gloom has past.This is the challenge for newer investors
ummester wrote:yarpos wrote:ummester wrote:NOTthanks for that valuable contribution, what were you not-ing about?
Yarpos, where is your literal undertanding. The thread was entitled property boom or not. My answer was quite clear.
thanks for the clarification, just thought you may have something to add….thought it was a forum not just a voting system
intel wrote:Samp were are you from ?he's in the Netherlands and by his own statement has never been to Australia
yarpos wrote:ummester wrote:yarpos wrote:ummester wrote:NOTthanks for that valuable contribution, what were you not-ing about?
Yarpos, where is your literal undertanding. The thread was entitled property boom or not. My answer was quite clear.
thanks for the clarification, just thought you may have something to add….thought it was a forum not just a voting system
Not – because Australia's consumer debt is overstretched.
Not – because peoples incomes are overstretched.
Not – because property hasn't been selling, across the board, for the past couple of months.
Not – because first home buyer confidence is extremely low.
Not – because there are a whole bunch of properties that are no longer making strong capital gains and will soon find thier way to the market.
Not – because the rental market will soon be flooded.
Not – because half the 'experts' have turned into bears in recent months.
Not – because mortgage interests rates are going to keep going up and people know it.
Not – because 20% isn't an unreasonable debt collection strategy for the big 4.
Not – because the Boomers are starting to retire and sell thier superanuation funds (property).
Not – because the average person wants a change (why do you think Labor got in).Enough, or do you require more?
Ultimately NOT was more simple and to the point.
not really, its consistent with you other posts , I just thought you had something else to say
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