http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,17856377-462,00.html
Have you seen it? It is coming!!! better to get used to this news from now.
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The net result is not so much lies, damn lies and statistics but rather vendor dreaming, buyer wishing and agent glossing.Whats even funnier was when I was saying this was going to happen a few months ago all the so called ‘experts’ on this bored laughed at me[hmm] I can remember quite distinctly some were even belittling me saying property prices were going to keep going up bwahahahahahah
I said it then and I’ll say it know-its doesnt take a freaking rocket scientist to work out property prices are over valued, people are over extended and prices are gunna come back considerably with a interest rate rise that WILL happen[jerry]
Raises an interesting quote:
“Is that the truth or did you read it in the Telegraph?”
You can get t-shirts with this on it in a shop accross the road from the Enmore Theatre in NSW.
I would add “A current affair” and “Today tonight” to the t-shirt.
Heard an economist from citibank on ABC radio this morning stating that the media is beating up the doom and gloom and apart from some individual cases the housing sector is in not to bad shape.
Who to believe?
Life is like a box of chocolates – you never know what you’re going to get!
Yawwwwwn!
Sparky
hi clones
I take it that you won’t be developing units in Sydney or melbourne in the near future even if the development and land cost,make them posi once complete.
as you are aware markets move up and down all the time put you need to project ahead what is your projection for interest rate in say 18 months from today as that what we have to guess.
I reckon 8% or below lets do a bit of crystal balling.here to help
If you want to get involved in some of the projects I’m involved in email to [email protected]hi clones
I take it that you won’t be developing units in Sydney or melbourne in the near future even if the development and land cost,make them posi once complete.
as you are aware markets move up and down all the time put you need to project ahead what is your projection for interest rate in say 18 months from today as that what we have to guess.
I reckon 8% or below lets do a bit of crystal balling.here to help
If you want to get involved in some of the projects I’m involved in email to [email protected]hi clones
also there is no mention what type of loans they were
I would like to see the mix and would be very surprised if it wasn’t top heavy in the low doc, no doc area.
these types of loans have been pushed by everyone that can get his hand on a broker manual and unlike normal lending the poor duck that hasn’t got a clue signs up on a no doc loan for a house they can’t hold, thats not an issue for the market thats an issue for the lender,
some lenders are down to less then 10% of loans going thru are full doc lends.
you can get low doc and no doc development loans now and I’m talking over 2 mil and the checks on these types of lends are next to not there.
I waiting for the today tonight head line westpac or anz liquidated and took before the court jack the cat as its owner put it as lender on a 2 mil development site.
sorry put to pin an arguement on that type of article is a little thin as I think in any market you are going to get sharks(and heres one calling the kettle black) but there are shark that have put people in loans that they should never have been in and lots of them.
that doesn’t mean the property they bought is over valued they could have put them in a ferrari instead of a getz but that doesn’t mean that ferrari are over valued or ferrari pricing should come down.
a little more reading into the article (and maybe I can see it alittle bit better ) and alittle more understanding of not only the movements with the real estate market but the movements within the lending arena will give you a little more understanding why these problems happen.
it is relatively simple for a ppor if you can’t get the loan as a full doc and get it thru relatively easy, take a very long and hard look at, can you afford it and if the answer is no !
then theres not alot of point going for a nodoc, when you will get the loan and you become one of those people in the article.
that my 002 I am a qualified broker but don’t broker outside my own deals and I don’t recommend low doc, no doc deals unless you are using them for business which is a totally different ball gamehere to help
If you want to get involved in some of the projects I’m involved in email to [email protected]i rarely listen to media articles, be it on tv, radio or papers. Its important to keep your fingure on the pulse but a lot of the time these articles we read are a minority of the larger picture.
“It’s not how much money you make, It’s how you spend it that matters.”
Aspiring property developer
Giulio Taranto
Originally posted by blogs:Whats even funnier was when I was saying this was going to happen a few months ago all the so called ‘experts’ on this bored laughed at me[hmm] I can remember quite distinctly some were even belittling me saying property prices were going to keep going up bwahahahahahah
No matter how you look at it, property prices generally go north in the long term. As with everything, there may be short term ups an downs – but like a good surfer, a good property investor should learn to ride the waves.[chill]
Cheers
PyramidHmm, I wonder what the figure is in real terms as I’m sure there are a lot more houses now than in 2004. I’m also sure that there are a lot more people with loans today just through the simple fact that the population grows. (ie what is it in percentage terms?)
Perhaps the news is not good but I certainly don’t think that the reporters who write this stuff are as good at property investing and finding a deal that shines as they are at making stories shine.
Perhaps the figures they report don’t take in to account all the economic factors????
Glenn & Julie
I certainly don’t think that the reporters who write this stuff are as good at property investing and finding a deal that shines as they are at making stories shine.Agreed. I wonder what level of knowledge and experience ol’ Darren has. He starts off by saying 4,000 families in NSW, then later in the story downgrades it to 4,000 people. Which one is it, and more importantly, with a population of ~ 4 Mill, give or take a few ten thousand odd, is this really newsworthy statistically ??
0.1% stuffed up royally…..OK….gotta expect a few people who purchased unwisely…..I think Darren wrote it as such…”They believed that prices would never come down, tempting them to borrow more than they could really afford if circumstances changed.” I wonder if there belief was based on any solid research, or they took all their advice from the previous month’s newspaper articles.
So, does it mean the other 99.9% are still doing tickety boo ?? Not a bad success rate I’d contend.
There are alot of people out there who paid WAY too much for their houses, got swept up in the boom hysteria and now they are possibly in trouble…
There are also alot of people who took equity out of their houses to live the good life, and now they are possibly in trouble
There are alot of smart people also who looked ahead and knew it couldnt last.
Either way there will be alot more reposessions in my opinion and the interest rates will go up, my bet is they will raised twice this year….
[rambo2]A lot of sensible people on this forum.
It can be dangerous to follow the herd, especially when the herd is led by a journalist who has as an agenda selling more papers and getting the story written in about 1 hour and getting on to the next story. (that is what they do)I am doing what I think is right for ME at this time. That means I now have LVR of about 43% – this leaves me a good margin if prices fall in the short term.
In addition I have got a loan against equity and put it back into an offset acc.
So I am now prepared for a bargain if I find one later this year or early next year.I would be interested to hear if other forumites reckon I am too cautious – or perhaps too reckless?? [blink]
Giddo
http://www.standrewsplace.com.auKNOWLEDGE IS POWER
Funny how people find excuses when they want and need to fill immune.
grossrealisation
“low doc”, he believes all these loans are only low doc.pyramid
“property generally go north in the long term.”, I agree, but you need to get the one that go north if possible the faster. If you are happy to stay in the bottom from 5 or 6 years you are OK.giddo
“especially when the herd is led by a journalist”. I guess you need to read it a bit more, it is a report based on “The repossession data represents the number of lenders going to the Supreme Court to seek an order so they can, if they wish, take possession of a home when someone fails to meet mortgage payments.”Bias prevails here. I just put the news.
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The net result is not so much lies, damn lies and statistics but rather vendor dreaming, buyer wishing and agent glossing.On the Today show this morning were three finance experts, all very well known in the media. They talked about the stories floating about that banks are selling up people in trouble.
The point was made that the same percentage of loans were defaulted now as in the boom period and much less than the defaults in the 1980’s. I think the figures were something like 1.7% now, 1.7% in the boom and 2.5% in the 1980’s. In other words, more defaults from more loans, same percentage.
The message was that the sky is NOT falling any more than it always has for those who have made bad decisions or have had bad circumstances forced on them by job losses etc.
Anyhow, that is what I got from the story.
Wylie.
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