Sydney’s house price index fell another 1.3% to 223.4 over the three months to April 2005, according to the latest L.J. Hooker / BIS Shrapnel Residential Property Index.
“The Sydney house price index has been falling for the past 16 month, but recent high percentage declines in the monthly indices indicates that 2005 will continue to bring bad news for Sydney vendors,†said Michael Davoren, Director Business, L.J. Hooker.
The Sydney index peaked at 241.9 in December 2003 and has fallen 7.6% since then with a 4.9% decline in the March quarter and 1.3% decline in the three months to April 2005.
I opened it to see if it was possible you could post something other than doom and gloom about the economy. I should have known better.
But its not doom and gloom about the economy! Lower housing prices are the best thing that could possibly happen to Sydney, it might stem the tide of people leaving the city because they can’t afford anything.
Sydney’s real estate prices remain about three years’ average take-home pay higher than in Melbourne, almost five years’ higher than in Brisbane, and almost double average prices in Perth and Adelaide.
House prices in Sydney were always higher, because Sydney is where land is most scarce. But as successive real estate booms and home renovations almost doubled the average price of a house relative to wages, the affordability gap between Sydney and the rest widened.
Even after a steep fall in prices in 2004, the Real Estate Institute and AMP Banking report that, in the December quarter, the median price in Sydney was $89,500 higher than in Melbourne, $162,500 higher than in Brisbane and $204,500 higher than in Perth.
What annoys me about your constant negative posts and apparent excitement at Sydney property prices dropping is that you ignore the fact that everyone who already owns property in Sydney is going to lose big time. For every winner, there is a loser!
Just because you are not currently holding property does not mean you should wish a crash on everyone who is holding. Not everyone is as ‘smart’ as you to have gotten out in time.
What annoys me about your constant negative posts and apparent excitement at Sydney property prices dropping is that you ignore the fact that everyone who already owns property in Sydney is going to lose big time. For every winner, there is a loser!
Did it ever occur to you there are lots of losers when the market is rising as well? People boasting here about how much money they are making in WA and Qld is every bit as annoying IMO.
Besides, the market would have to fall an awful long way for there to be many losers in Sydney. Most owner-occupiers would have bought well before the boom.
Big assumption dmichie. Try owning Sydney property in the current market and you will learn something real.
As for people talking positively, these are single posts here and there. It is not a constand bombardment of negativity and articles saying the same thing over and over in different threads. They also post regarding a diverse range of issues.
Move on already! We know what you are saying about the economy and don’t need to hear it again and again and again and again….
Why don’t you two sit down together and discuss your differences over a beer.
You could both have a laugh, present your opinions to one another privately, over the course of about 20 minutes and then shake hands and agree to disagree if that’s where it ended ??
We tried that via email. It never ends with dmichie. Email after email of negative propaganda kept coming. One thing I have learned from successful people is that if you surround yourself with negative people, it will bring you down.
I just find it astounding that anyone would base their whole property purchase strategy on the collapse of an economy! This may amount to one or two purchases every ten years. No thanks… I look for opportunities regardless of the current economic climate.
By the way, I don’t drink beer and the Northern and Eastern Beaches locals will never see eye to eye on anything. The Northerners think they are better than us but everyone knows the best are in the East!!! )))
The reason I make money is that negative people talk the market down. If you are investing for the long term who cares what the market does year to year. Over a ten year period you will more than double your money in most major cities in Australia. I live in Camberwell in Melbourne and I have not seen any real sign that quality housing has dropped much at all. If you are looking to invest and you can buy a number of properties before the next boom, you will double your money even quicker.
But its not doom and gloom about the economy! Lower housing prices are the best thing that could possibly happen to Sydney, it might stem the tide of people leaving the city because they can’t afford anything.
Besides the comments made by others about your focus on the negative that may transpire also from other post I have not read, your idea that falling prices is good because it stops people from living is misinformed and contradicts economic principles, yet perhaps defining your own thought pattern.
First of all Sydney receives an influx of some 70,000 migrants a year, so much for people leaving.
Second, prices are the result of offer and demand plus external government interventions.
Prices go up because more people want to buy than there is on offer, so two or more people want to buy the same house and whoever pays more wins.
The motivations for people to buy a house in any market, varies from wanting to cash a government carrot, to genuine housing or investment needs to Johnny came late syndrome.
Prices go down because one or more of the above factors declines and there is more than one house for each buyer.
In any market there are always hype merchants and gloom merchant. In my experience, the true hype merchant are usually professionals with a hidden agenda, yet the gloom merchants are a bit different.
You have on one hand the media who sell doom and gloom as their way to attract viewers of a negative mind set (the majority) in order to sell them Toyota and Macdonald. But in the gloom selling world there is a large bunch of amateurs, the volunteers of downturn and disaster, who spread the bad news real or imaginary created by the professionals in the media, in an attempt to support their own negative view of the world.
“I told you so” would perhaps be the best sentence they can come up with, and any attempt to explain how a negative focus will forcibly become a reality if you keep long enough at it is met with ridicule.
Optimist or positive focused people are fools in their eyes, and doom and gloom volunteers keep their mouth corners in a downturn curve and a persistent frown funeral director style on their forehead, as a mark of seriousness and gravity, that makes them in their view in tune with this sad and truly bad world we live in. Disaster in a doom volunteer is default and positive things happen by accident and through “luck” or a “brake” in the naturally bad world.
I think that any attempt to turn people of this mindset around is a long shot and usually needs a lot of dedication. Large employers spend millions in hiring professionals for this purpose even when the results are usually in the 5% order, simply because the natural man does not want to change and clings to his own values or anti-values as if his life depend on it. An in a sense it does. If you are happy with the results you obtained so far, all you need to do is keep on doing what you are doing and you get more of the same.
Yet to conclude on your “disaster is good” idea, it is a fact of life that some people feel at easy in a falling market because it alleviates them from the pressure of achieving success.
In a way people that think like this feel relieved from the fact that in a downturn market disaster is common to all, so if I am in trouble so is everyone else, and anything I can achieve by chance is a bonus. In an upward market though, success is the trend and for a negative person this is unbearable and a pressure that is intolerable. People who succeed in an upward market become “speculators” and “greedy” in their eyes, they will find all sort of excuses to place labels of broken ethics, immorality, cruelty or any other alien factor they can think of onto the optimistic who is doing well in order to justify their own mediocrity. A market crash or downturn is so welcomed that they slide down with the rest with a smile on their face picking some wins here and there on the way down firmly believing this is the best way to go.
First let me say this would be a very boring forum if everyone was ‘positive’ (to use Robert’s terminology) and bullish on property. I enjoy being one of the few bears here, and I don’t plan on going away, no matter how much I annoy people.
Over a ten year period you will more than double your money in most major cities in Australia.
That is simply isn’t true. If you’d bought in the late 80s, you wouldn’t have seen much real growth (i.e. above inflation) in ten years.
If you believe (as I do) that we are about 18 months past the top of an unprecedented bull run in property, people who buy now will not see much growth for a decade.
One thing I have learned from successful people is that if you surround yourself with negative people, it will bring you down.
Robert, that is so much psycho-babble. Surrounding yourself with yes men is the surest route to failure. A good dose of skepticism, cynicism and questioning of the conventional wisdom will see you go further.
First of all Sydney receives an influx of some 70,000 migrants a year, so much for people leaving
Its net migration that counts, if more people leave than arrive in Sydney then you have a net loss. More importantly, its young people who a leaving in droves. To quote from the Colebatch article: “(NSW) actually went backwards among the under-40s, losing a net 11,400 younger people, while gaining 167,400 of the middle-aged and elderly”
Prices go up because more people want to buy than there is on offer, so two or more people want to buy the same house and whoever pays more wins.
You obviously haven’t been to any auctions in Sydney recently! I looked at a house yesterday that has sat on the market for months. They dropped their price 20% this week and I was the only person to inspect during yesterday’s open house. I reckon I could offer 20% less again confident that no-one else would outbid me.
Yes men and positive people are two very different things. A positive person is a person who has made their own mind up and decided to be positive, a yes man is someone who follows your opinion despite their own.
I have had to move inter-state to avoid negative nellies and drains on my personal energy. I have intentionally surrounded myself with others who will encourage and discuss without blame or put-downs. Birds of a feather flock together but also if you get caught in a flock you will either become one or move on. I moved on and it has helped.
I whole heartedly agree with 1Winner concerning doom volunteers. I’ve seen them and I’ve had to put up with their constant nay-saying. If you so “no, wont happen” long enough sooner or later you’ll be right, but in the mean time you miss all the opportunities. So Sydney isn’t achieving it’s price potential, whatever, get over it these things happen. At the same time there are still plenty of profit making opportunities there.
If it gets too expensive, no one will buy there. They’ll look elsewhere and the price will “fall” and it will rise somewhere else as demand outstrips supply until it is too expensive there and they come back to Sydney. Will that take 10 years? Probably not. But it is possible. Either way it is not particularly important. We live in a not only national economy, but as people are investing in NZ can attest, we also live in a global economy.
DMichie, move on. Pick a new place to doom and gloom about, Sydeny is well covered and I would find more use from information concerning other places.
One thing I have learned from successful people is that if you surround yourself with negative people, it will bring you down.
Robert, that is so much psycho-babble. Surrounding yourself with yes men is the surest route to failure. A good dose of skepticism, cynicism and questioning of the conventional wisdom will see you go further.
dmichie, I think surrey summed up the difference between ‘yes men’ and ‘positive people’ very well. Regarding ‘skepticism, cynicism and questioning of the conventional wisdom’, no-one does this more than I do which is clearly evident by many of my posts.
No-one is disputing your comments about a downturn in the market because it is obvious and anyone can see it. What we discussed (numerous times now) is the level of that downturn, your alterior motives for pushing such a negative outlook and the opportunities available in any market.
First of all Sydney receives an influx of some 70,000 migrants a year, so much for people leaving
Its net migration that counts, if more people leave than arrive in Sydney then you have a net loss. More importantly, its young people who a leaving in droves. To quote from the Colebatch article: “(NSW) actually went backwards among the under-40s, losing a net 11,400 younger people, while gaining 167,400 of the middle-aged and elderly”
Prices go up because more people want to buy than there is on offer, so two or more people want to buy the same house and whoever pays more wins.
You obviously haven’t been to any auctions in Sydney recently! I looked at a house yesterday that has sat on the market for months. They dropped their price 20% this week and I was the only person to inspect during yesterday’s open house. I reckon I could offer 20% less again confident that no-one else would outbid me.
Hum, what to say to the above? So we lost 12,000 young and gained 170,000 mature and that is …. bad?
When I concede that some are of the opinion that over 40 are ancient and over 50 should be shot, in my (old) book of demographics that is a severe NET gain in people who have large housing needs. Furthermore I rather have an over 60 tenant than a 30 year old. If you do not, I don’t know what business you are in but it is certainly not residential investment.
As to your response to my simplistic explanation of the market, I don’t think you read it properly. You are quoting me in reference to an up market yet referring to a current down….but hey, I am not in the business of convincing people, if you enjoy the downslide because it makes you feel better, slide away!
I have had to move inter-state to avoid negative nellies and drains on my personal energy.
LOL! You had to leave the state?! Are you going to have to leave this forum now because of all the negative energy coming from my posts? For Christ’s sake, give me break!
your alterior motives for pushing such a negative outlook
Oooh yes, for the umpteenth time you mention my dark alterior motives. I’m not a investor, I don’t own any property, I’d simply like to buy a home for my family for a sane price. How sinister is that? To suggest that I am trying to influence the property market by posting here is ludicrous.
I’ll leave it for other readers to decide which of us has more of a vested interest in the health of the property market.