Hi everyone,
I have just read the transcript from SBS Insigth on ‘Debt Crises” that Steve recomended that burried deep on page 8 where Jenny is talking about the property market stalling for now and then preparring for a decline. Chris Caton the economist expects that prices will continue to fall for a couple of years yet.
Is this really true? The word on the street seems to be it’s only for another 8 months or so – can anyone direct me to learn more about this. He also went on to say that houses now will be worth the same in 5 years time when they will be on the way back up – so how long and how much can we expect prices to fall??
Any experts with some hint of direction out there??
Thats what history seems to suggest.
I recall many years of no growth or very little and even falls after a period of boom growth.
Now is a time to be conservative.
He has a lot of backers. The industry is is still hyping it won’t be till the negative media hits that a slide will take hold.
Then people will wait.
How steep is the slide will be effected by external factors.
But think about it. If a property in Long island NY has 3 bedrooms and 2 storeys and is worth the same as a smaller house in the outer suburbs of Sydney, (400 US vs 500Aus) either NY has to catch us or we have to go down and meet it.
Have friends who could not sell at their reserve after cutting 10% off what they already thought was a discounted price. Have refinanced and will sell next year, (they will have to as funds will run out … its negative ) then they will have to take the market.
do you have a web link for this report ? I would think its reasonable especially in Urban areas, look at past property cycles, also a excellent read is More related to financial markets is “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” ~ Charles Mackay starts with the tulip mania, exact replications of the proeprty booms and the timing of the crowd when the join the sector
hey nah
Hiya,
yeah the report was in the latest of Steve’s newsletter. It’s not a report as such – it’s a transcript off a TV programme in Aus called ‘Insight’ and is basically a debate or gathering of opinions from 30 people on Australian Debt .
You can get it at http://www.6.sbs.com.au/insight/…. it’s the latest one
If you beleive thier is no money to be made in property investing at any time then thats exactly what will happen to you.
Its all up to the individual, if you have a negative approach in a turning market you wont be active.
Consider what the proffessional investors are doing do you believe they are not active in the market right now?
If your not prepaired to do the hard work and research you wont achieve your goals.
Consider this scenario %25 interest rates lowest prices for houses in history, what could you do to increase your wealth whith this example?Dom
[biggrin]Dom,
That’s my dream scenario. I’m doing my own private little rates dance everynight trying to spook the gods in to giving me a rate rise.
I’m not negative geared to the eyeballs, I’m cashed up with a huge amount of disposable income and a helluva lot of equity and borrowing power. Bring on the doomsayers I say.
Cheers,
Michael.has anyone actually been able to access this link?? i cant!
Aussierogue,
Nope, link doesn’t work for me either, even when I delete the trailing …’s
Seems like an abreviation, but don’t know the correct link.
Cheers,
Michael.Don’t I look like the goose now that Qwerty’s post beat me by 8 seconds [biggrin]
Now that was an interesting read. Quite long, but well worth the effort. It was interesting to see the two different approaches to borrowing that are now in play. There’s the “borrow now, pay later, to fund consumption” guys and then there’s the “good debt to fund retirement” guys. No real surprises there, except that the former are so heavily represented.
The best part of the article is the wrap up at the end, but there’s an interesting bit in the middle which mentions the good debt group having the highest level of personal wellbeing. No surprise to me really… [biggrin]
Great post, thanks for the link.
Cheers,
Michael.interesting. I see the investors club is promoting itself as a self help organisation??!! perhaps macdonalds should market itself as a ‘self help sustenance club’!
Extensive list of ‘Off The Plan’ property available for sale in Perth.John – 0419 198 856
Originally posted by AusProp:interesting. I see the investors club is promoting itself as a self help organisation??!! perhaps macdonalds should market itself as a ‘self help sustenance club’!
I thought they were doing similar already. Being one of the major Child Diabetes Foundation sponsors…
Salacious, what professional investors are you talking about ? Most of the “professional investors” I come in contact with had turned their back on future property purchases about a year ago and directed their new investments into equities and other booming areas.
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18404&page=1&pp=15
Baloo,
Topic are you still buying.Dom
I guess we have different ideas on what constitutes a professional investor.
Sydney lead the market on the way up and will lead on the way down. Despite the REI saying its the 20klm band from the city that has softened from what clients tell me its pretty wel apread.
Balmain, Menai, the Hills and Campelltown (thats pretty well N S E W ) all have property listed at 10-20% down on either original listed price or original owners expectations, and for severaql of these examples there is still zero interest.You don’t have to sell at these prices amd many ppl are resisting for now and holding out, but next year l0oks like more of the same. Some will have to sell, for reasons of age, family break up job change etc.
Will these then be bargains, or their correct price.As for those investors who bought off the plan and have yet to settle….owch!!
Sorry missed this, on one property the owner wanted $879K knocked back $810K held out and 9 months later can’t get a sniff at $775K.
friend of mine bought OTP in janaury this year,
its expected to be complete late next year.
i did warn him. the problem he has now is that he cant even get a loan to buy the place!
he doesnt earn enough money. i did warn him, but as you all know you can only lead a horse to water. [baaa]
cheers all
shaunLead, Follow or get out of the bloody way
All,
I just took a look at the median prices in one of the postcodes I’m watching. Interesting results…
2004 $690,500
2003 $741,000
2002 $757,500
2001 $550,000
2000 $517,000They’ve been sliding since 2002, but had just jumped almost 50% from 2001.
Anything quality under $600,000 is starting to look like a good buy.
Thoughts?
Michael.A few more:
Brothers IP at Sydney’s Northern Beaches. Late last year could get approx 1.3 mil (based on sales in the area) today agent reckons “high 900’sâ€.
Same brother same area has a property pursued heavily by developers. Last offer 2.3 mil. Market’s changed and the developers have lost interest. Street value today is $950k (if his lucky).
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