All Topics / General Property / Crumbling House Prices in Aust and NZ??

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  • Profile photo of IbuycashflowIbuycashflow
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    A recent article well worth a read

    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/news/scnews/article.php/3712eccd

    Hang on in there guys, we’ll just have that much more property when the next cycle begins.

    Cheers
    Jeff

    Profile photo of AUSPROPAUSPROP
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    are prices really falling in Syd / Melb? Perth is still rising strongly and is expected to continue for some time. I would be interested to see some factual data on the east coast declines.



    Extensive list of ‘Off The Plan’ property available for sale in Perth.

    John – 0419 198 856

    Profile photo of wayneLwayneL
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    Originally posted by AusProp:

    Perth is still rising strongly and is expected to continue for some time.

    LOL, not in the places where I am looking.

    Perth does lag by a few months. I see Perth as stagnant price wise, but volume still ticking over. Wait till next year for real declines!!![evil4]

    http://www.tradingforaliving.info

    Profile photo of woodsmanwoodsman
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    Ausprop,

    Some information/data on east coast property prices from APM

    http://afr.com/articles/2004/05/26/1085461821861.html

    James

    Profile photo of gmh454gmh454
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    Originally posted by AusProp:

    are prices really falling in Syd / Melb? Perth is still rising strongly John – 0419 198 856

    Last night on PM the ABC radio in depth news service (highly recommend) they said that for the 1/4 ended 31/03/04 official house prices in Sydney dropped 7% and Melb 13%. Unit prices did worse.
    For the rest of Aust they said week to stagnant…..

    Now this was for March 1/4, think its dropped a couple of more notches since then.

    The REI put the spin on it that taken annually the market was up for the yr ended 31/03/04.
    Gotta love statistics. Gotta love REI.

    If you were a solicitor accountant or doctor and made statements deliberatley to mislead you would be in serious trouble.REI are exempt.

    Glad to see you are still optomistic,

    Profile photo of yackyack
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    Hi

    Ok. We have seen property prices fall on the East Coast of Australia eg. Melbourne down by 13%.

    But on the positive side –
    1. The .5% interest rate increase had the effect the Reserve bank wanted by taking some heat out of the market.
    2. Low wage earners received a pay rise a few weeks ago.
    3. Tax cuts for most wage earners.
    4. Exchange rate of 70 cts to $US. A rate thats probably ok.
    5. We probably wont be effected too much if the US decides to increase interest rates.
    6. Inflation within guidelines so no rate increase hopefully in the short term.

    With tax cuts and wage rises to low income earners, this will have the effect of supporting home values. eg. more money to pay increased rents and more cash in pocket to pay home loans.

    As ususal comments appreciated. I probably missed something too.

    Profile photo of gmh454gmh454
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    Quote:
    Originally posted by yack:

    With tax cuts and wage rises to low income earners, this will have the effect of supporting home values. eg. more money to pay increased rents and more cash in pocket to pay home loans.

    As ususal comments appreciated. I probably missed something too.

    (/quote)

    Yack I think you have covered most, but the one you missed is one we are not used to considering, and that is China. this I have been lead to believe is having a greater effect on oil than Iraq, and may well have a enormous influence on inflation and interest rates in the future. i think there inflation level is running at around 10% and they have to start pushing rates to restrain it.

    Also Europe has been stagnant while digesting the old eastern bloc. It may now awake.

    Inflation will drive rates.

    Only opinions, comments appreciated.

    Profile photo of ghotibghotib
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    Here’s the transcript of the PM story. http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2004/s1116631.htm

    I thought the most interesting thing about it was the wildly different result on Sydney prices between APM and Residex. That chimes with other reports I’ve been seeing, notably from Alan Kohler, that residential property statistics are very unreliable.

    gmh54 (any relation to the Kingswood?) thanks for pointing out the rising influence of China and Europe on global money flows. I hope that will counterbalance the effect of US interest rate movements on Australia: US rates go up, Oz dollar drops, import prices rise, inflation rises, Oz interest rates rise. That’s a simple one; it can get much more exciting very quickly if you think about ongoing effects on the US economy. But the main point is that it will be good to have a few more balance points in the system.

    Ghoti (ready to buy when the price is right)

    * * * * * * * * * *

    Without music, life would be a mistake.

    Profile photo of AUSPROPAUSPROP
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    Originally posted by georgisj:

    Ausprop,

    Some information/data on east coast property prices from APM

    http://afr.com/articles/2004/05/26/1085461821861.html

    James

    Wow! amazing data. is the feel on the ground the same or is it just usual crazy stats not reflecting reality? The data suggests there could be some good buying over there. Speaking of dodgy stats, the Perth numbers were released last week… 55% price rise in Trigg in 3 months?! Somehow I don’t think that is underlying land value driving that! and yet Scarborough shows a slight decline… these figures are so influenced by many factors that cannot be reduced to one headline % number.



    Extensive list of ‘Off The Plan’ property available for sale in Perth.

    John – 0419 198 856

    Profile photo of woodsmanwoodsman
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    Expectations and more specifcially future expectations are powerful influences on household and business actions.

    So whilst tax cuts, global economic conditions will influence us, the expectation of future interest rate rises, have I believe an even greater effect on behaviour. If people think interest rates rises are inevitable, decisions to purchase/invest are either postponed or abandoned. A self-fulfilling prophecy. The reverse is true and played a key role in the property boom over the last few years.

    IMO,the last 6 months is again evidence of that. Whilst we have had had a 50 basis point increase in rates, the effect of this rate increase and the expectation that we will have rises this year, has had a significant effect.

    Business & household confidence surveys do give an insight into future behaviour. They are worth examining.

    James

    Profile photo of ez-rentez-rent
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    I can tell you with absolute certainty that not all Perth suburbs are rising. I’m in ST James and the prices are already $10-20k from their peak. I have been looking in Lathlain, Rivervalue, Kewdale, Victoria park and East Vic Park and the trend is consistent across these suburbs. My latest valuation is now $20k less than 9 months ago.

    Originally posted by AusProp:

    are prices really falling in Syd / Melb? Perth is still rising strongly and is expected to continue for some time. I would be interested to see some factual data on the east coast declines.

    EZ-Rent. The free tax and cashflow simulator for Australian property investors. Version 2 out now!
    http://www.ez-rent.com

    Profile photo of breakfreebreakfree
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    These stats are either not reliable or too late and is not reflection the current market.[baaa] Alan Kholer had written an article about all these stats. I could not find the link for this post. I think some suburbs are worse than these stats put out and I think market will continue to slide. Just wait till next time they put out the stats.

    Breakfree

    Profile photo of gmh454gmh454
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    Quote:
    Originally posted by ghotib:

    .

    gmh54 (any relation to the Kingswood?)

    (/quote)

    its a 1974 HQ Statesman that raced at Castlereigh in 74/75 and ran bests of 11.68 and 132mph, both under the Nat record at the time.

    Very interesting history, and will be getting magazine publicity soon,

    Hang on forgot I was on a property board instead of a drag racing site.

    thanks for asking

    Terry

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