All Topics / Opinionated! / Looming world problem
Hello guys I love this forum and the much good information on it.
This is my first post and I hope it doesn’t give me a bad name so please be gentle.
Firstly I don’t want to frighten anyone with this information but I think it should be know by all of us.
I only ran in to this by accident and in some ways I wish I never had, it’s certainly not for the faint hearted.Warning Please don’t click and read these articles if you are easily upset as it has upset me very much.
A Couple of articles
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100303_eating_oil.htmlhttp://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/050404_lemonde_petro_apocalypse.html
After discovering this information a couple of months back and becoming extremely depressed by it I decided to do a little more research as to its credibility.
Searching the internet I discovered that there are many people around the world including Scientist’s and geologist’s trying to raise awareness about the subject.
There have been a couple of television documentaries and many books Written about the looming problem including a book written by the host of US TV series “The Offal Truth” Michael Moore. I highly recommend his book “Dude Where’s my country it has really opened my eyes as to the way the world is really run.I would like to think that its all a bad dream and that I’m just being very negative but what ever way I look at this it only gets worse and worse in my own mind.
I would love to hear the thoughts of you guy’s maybe it’s just my depressive mind dragging me down “I really hope it is on this one”.I am by nature a person that worries quite easily and as I said maybe its all in my head but if so how do other members/investors overcome negative Thought patterns in there own minds as I can see that it would be a major factor that one needs to deal with if they are to become successful in Real-estate investing.
After having knowledge of this problem I have found my self loosing faith in my big plans for becoming a real-estate investor.Kind Regards
AblazAblaz – Yes it is worrying, but people will still need a place to live.
One could easily have taken the same attitude during the cold war – everyone will die through nuclear war, so why invest?
Should nuclear war occur, you’d have nothing. Should it not occur, you’d still have nothing. So on balance it’s better to invest even though the future looks uncertain.
Fuel security is a valid issue. I would suggest further reading on this and other related subjects eg urban planning, transport systems, etc.
Then only buy IPs within walking distance of town (regional centre) or public transport (capital city).
Should the scenario about an oil shortage/higher petrol prices prove correct, you will enjoy capital gains as everyone will be wanting to live in handy, walkable locations.
Regards, Peter
Ablaz,
Certainly disturbing reading, but, not worth us becoming chicken littles all of a sudden…
Yes, we must become more responsible human beings for the resources we consume…….
Having said that, it’s not going to stop me from investing the way I do…. Life does go on…. we have to guide our youth to be better than we have been…. investing in new technologies, focus on the environment…..
I go forward, concerned for my children’s future, but with optimism that we will address these issues….. hopefully not at the 11th hour……
Ablaz,
Yes, those articles can be depressing, for sure. I remember reading about stuff like that over the years, and particularly when I first started reading about it, I became quite down and felt powerless.
With regards to RE, I wrangled with the ethics of it all about a decade ago. I figure if I can charge reasonable rents, do the right thing by tenants, and maybe one day have my own home, then I am not doing anything outside of what I think is ok. I wish there was more public housing, but the government has relinquished its responsibility. For a number of years, I charged rents that were under what the Dept of housing charged, just to ensure I wasn’t being exploitative.
Having said this, the old activist chant of “property equals theft” was said to me the other day by a friend- hehe. I hadn’t heard of it for a while! You can be an activist, and keep your sense of what you think is right and wrong, and still enjoy real estate, I reckon.
My opinion only, of course
kay henry
Hi Ablaz,
Yes, this is a very serious problem. One, I think, that a lot of people (including politicians) have not got their heads around, and yes, it is depressing at first. I would say a lot of people discard the information into the “too hard” box.Best you can do, now that you have knowledge and know the serious ramifications is to factor it in to your daily decisions and long term plans. You can almost start to see it happening around you as the price of oil soars 300% from what is was in 98. Theres a long way to go to reach the highs of the seventies in relative terms, where oil reached US$60. That knocked the NZ property market into a long decline, where properties devalued 10% per year for quite a stretch.
During the Iran-Iraq war (late 70’s)another oil crisis hit, and property reacted the same way, but not such a long stretch. So the ramifications of declining oil supply and higher oil prices has a very definite affect on the property market (here in NZ anyway).
If you are still keen on investing in property, I’d sit back, save your money, maybe invest in something like alternative energies (sure to be a growth area) and jump into PI later.
If you want to discuss the issue try http://www.oilcrash.com
They have links to some excellent discussion forums, that cover most aspects, including investment and self preparation.And if you get past the depressed stage, and get onto the angry stage, write to your MP or Government representative and ask them how they are preparing to meet the challenge on your behalf. Some of the answers I’ve received would be quite amusing if it wasn’t so serious.
All the best
Ferncertainly puts things into perspective. i think we as humans find it difficult to ‘think’ past our own immediate middle class needs. and the wise ones of us that do try and see longer term we tend to ridicule them as drop outs, hippies, alternatives, mystics, intellectuals etc.
we all need to take responsibility for the world and the forst step is to accept that we already have more than enuf to keep us happy and stop being rabbid consumers… (is rabbid a word?)
Originally posted by aussierogue:and the wise ones of us that do try and see longer term we tend to ridicule them as drop outs, hippies, alternatives, mystics, intellectuals etc.
we all need to take responsibility for the world and the forst step is to accept that we already have more than enuf to keep us happy and stop being rabbid consumers… (is rabbid a word?)
I think so[blink]…. something to do with having rabies[biggrin]
I first heard of the d-day of fuel consumption about 20 years ago at school. Its not a new issue, nor has it been recently ‘discovered’.
Oil companies know their days are numbered as fuel providers, but that is why they have used (abused) their powers to attain alternative technology and restrict its usage.
Examples such as the Gold Coast inventor who created a 3/4 Water 1/4 Petrol mix engine about 10 years ago had his idea purchased and locked away by the oil companies.
This though doesn’t mean there are no alternatives out there, try science news pages and search for hydrogen engines. Big advances have been made there. Of course the Oil companies are trying to ruin the party, by actually pushing the US government to sponsor Hydrogen research and manufacture by placing a proviso that they can only use oil for the production of Hydrogen, ironic eh?
Electric cars and hybrid technology is currently in theory and practice. Prius (Toyota) is a hybrid car that has been for sale in Australia for about two years or so, it uses an electric motor boosted and recharged by a petrol using unit, even braking recharges the car! Now if they linked solar cells to this vehicle then perhaps even less fuel consumption would be needed. Problems with Electric cars was that they didn’t travel too far before being totally flat.
Interesting that consumption may drop if they include specific technologies such as an aircon unit they developed that ran off even something like human bodyheat.
We have ways to easily navigate around something like that. Of course improved public transport utilising electricity supplied by solar or wind power would remove the majority of the problem in the cities.
Lots of money will now be pointed at energy development.
Hydrogen will be an important one, but it takes another source of energy to create hydrogen, traditionally NG, another fossil fuel, so its cost is high and its energy value is a lot less than oil.Oil will be around for many many years, but at a high cost, maybe above the reach of the average Joe. Aeroplanes don’t run on anything but oil (kerosene). I can imagine air travel costs will become prohibitive to the average Joe also.
Shipping and transport also only run on oil, seen any hydrogen trucks lately? That will affect everything, and as each years passes, the oil supply gets less, and the world population gets bigger.It doesn’t look that rosey to me. In fact its down right mind boggling.
I remember, some thirty years ago, a friend was running around trying to find a backer for a Russian scientist (living in Australia) who had designed a method to break up water into Hydrogen and Oxygen and thence use the hydrogen to run a motor on.
My friend tried to set up appointments with many companies but found it very hard going.
One company he got through to arranged a meeting between their scientists and the Russian man where he would set up a demonstration.
The companies’ headchemist came to the meeting and then said ‘the place will blow up, we shouldn’t be involved in this’ whereupon he walked out.
End of demonstration.
Today I read that cars using hydrogen is a reality.
However, I believe that creating Hydrogen isn’t (at the moment) very cost effective i./e. it consumes more energy to run the process than the energy produced by the hydrogen.
I first heard about stories about new energy sources being suppressed some sixty years ago.
Yet, it would be in the oil companies interest to have new sources of energy on tap for when the time comes when the conventional sources (oil) dry up.I also wonder what the Arabs will do when their source of income dry up ?
Pisces
Its already happening in some of the smaller arab countries. Oman is using the last of the oil revenue to create a giant intl shipping port modeled on Rotterdam.
United Arab Emirates are pushing the tourism angle. Seen all their ads for Dubai on TV recently.
I believe one of the big problems with hydrogen is its hard to store and leaks through most metals and its bulky. Fuel cells have a long way to go yet.
Even if they had the technology now, it would take a lot of years and investment to get us changed over as well as some more immediate action from the politicians. They hate to give out bad news, especially aound election years. We will probably be in big doo doo long before that happens.However, I believe that creating Hydrogen isn’t (at the moment) very cost effective i./e. it consumes more energy to run the process than the energy produced by the hydrogen.You could use solar power to do the bulk of the creation of Hydrogen, that way you don’t need to ship any source apart from say water to be split into hydrogen and oxygen. If you maintain an idea like the Prius but use hydrogen instead of petrol for the boosting then you wouldn’t need a large fuel cell for the hydrogen since it is only an auxillary source.
Another system could use a technology that needs to be worked on more that will allow ‘in vehicle’ conversion of water to hydrogen and oxygen. For example say you have a large tank full of water in the car, a setup of solar cells in the roof place the excess power to the converter that slowly replaces the lost hydrogen in another quite small tank.
Or ignore the problematic hydrogen issue altogether and just go electric with solar rechargability, you could have ‘cell’ stations that swap out depleted batteries for fully recharged ones as well or offer ‘quickcharge’ facilities instead of petrol stations as we have it now.
I agree with you about hydrogen versus electric.
Electric sounds a lot more feasible. The petrolheads won’t like the lack of power, but I wouldn’t miss it.Meant to say too, this won’t address the larger types of transport, airlines, intl shipping etc etc. Can’t see them running on hydrogen or electricity.
Back to the sailing ship maybe[biggrin]
The cover of the latest National Geographic
“The End of Cheap Oil”http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/
“It’s inevitable. But just how soon will the vital fuel become so scarce and expensive that we’re forced to make hard choices about how we live? “
I’d say in about 18 months, the real crunch will start to be felt!!!
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