This Opinionated! forum gone quieter and quieter. It seem to me that people does not have anymore opinion.
Strange?
May be more opinions will be coming once the interested rise in April.
Warm Regards
ChanDollars
[Keep going, you’re nearly reach the end of financial freedom]Hi Chan$,
the forum has been really quite now for the last few days, everyone must be busy doing sumthing else…
were could everyone be hiding? [
]Cheers,
sisS.I.S,
I notice that as well. There must be a lot of +ve Cash Flow in NZ and now everyone is heading there.
Warm Regards
ChanDollars
[Keep going, you’re nearly reach the end of financial freedom]mabye ppl r enjoying their long weekend [:p]
Cheers Matt
“If you do what you have always done, you will get what you have always had.”
“Isn’t it time for a change?”
Hey… It’s Chinese New Year……
We’re all on holiday !!! hehehehehe…
Kung Hei Fat Choi !!!!
Scott
I thought they were all just being deleted! :x
Perhaps it is simply a case of, there are only so many subjects on which to express an opinion, and only so many times it’s worth expressing the same opinion. [
]Keep smiling
FelicityYes, perhaps that is the case Felicity. One good thing about not being allowed to express opinions in the main forums though, is that we don’t have to hear over and over about how some people are “helping” people- that does become tiresome, as you’ve referred to- same thing over and over
Perhaps it’s also about this Opinionated Forum being almost at the bottom of the list.
Perhaps it’s also that, for those of us who believe in democracy, some have given up in putting their opinion. They’ve become disenfranchised, if you will.
We all still have our opinions, as you have yours. Individuality’s a beautiful thing
kay henry
Aw, come on…
Perhaps it’s also that, for those of us who believe in democracy, some have given up in putting their opinion. They’ve become disenfranchised, if you will.I only clamp down when people can’t express an opinion in a civil way. Just as you have your say re people ‘helping’, the same is true of people being critical.
Let’s just lump it all in ‘opinionated’ so people who want to get involved on that side of the discussion can.
I think it’s quiet down here because people became sick of the bickering and moved on to more constructive discussion points in other forums.
Bye,
Steve McKnight
**********
Remember that success comes from doing things differently.
**********Steve McKnight | PropertyInvesting.com Pty Ltd | CEO
https://www.propertyinvesting.comSuccess comes from doing things differently
I think it’s quiet down here because people became sick of the bickering and moved on to more constructive discussion points in other forums.Steve McKnight
Yeah like all the informative discussions in Forum Frolic!
You can learn some interesting things there, but not too much about property!
‘Eat rich food, barbeque a yuppie’
I don’t “bicker” Steve- i “discuss” :o)
kay henry
Originally posted by kay henry:I don’t “bicker” Steve- i “discuss” :o)
kay henry
Kay,
I missed this one age ago. Now this opinionated has pick up again.
Good to see a lot of discussion here!
[drummer][strum]
[guitar][whip]
[juggle]Kind regards
Chan Dollars
[Retire Young, Retire Rich] [strum]Originally posted by Chan$:Originally posted by kay henry:I don’t “bicker” Steve- i “discuss” :o)
kay henry
Kay,
I missed this one age ago. Now this opinionated has pick up again.
Good to see a lot of discussion here!
[drummer][strum]
[guitar][whip]
[juggle]Kind regards
Chan Dollars
[Retire Young, Retire Rich] [strum]Lovely
THERE IS ALWAYS A BETTER WAY!
G’day re lack of activity….
For what it’s worth … my brother runs a training program in the Sharemarket at a modest price…. March has been his worst onth on record.
Just a one off wonder? … I don’t think so!
He wrote nearly $200k in biz 3 monhs ago..then $100k… then $79k and March to date $13k?????
The Share market did not follow through after breaking the 10,000 barrier over Xmas and is now falling back.
Most of you know my immediate views on R/E… for another 18 months or so anyway.
We are moving back to the ACT with a 2 year lease so I can develop my project at the farm an hour from Canberra.
Take this on board… my wife looked at a townhouse wih jut one group of agents and all very nice… too dear… and she can take her pick of 70… I am not exagerating.
Think about it? Because I am convinced that I have read the R/e and Share Market correctly, over the past 6 months…. well almost all areas anyway
Billfromoz
We could be in for a bout of disinflation and Interest rates will fall after April as Winter sets in.Billfromoz
Bill O’Mara
Take note of Bill guys, he has been around the traps long enough to observe the cycles.
Also have a read of “conquer the crash” by Robert Prechter…just to realy give yourselves a fright.
Here is an excerpt from an interview he gave in 2002
>>”Now the fascinating thing is, to me, what you just brought up and that is
the Grand Super Cycle, as Elliott called it. We have actually probably
completed five waves up from the 1780’s. In 1720 there was the peak of a
tremendous bull market in England. That led to a sixty-four year, three
step, ABC, bear market bottoming in 1784. And from that point forward we
have a very clear sequence of five waves right into the early portion of
2000 and that’s why I’m saying this is very similar to 1929 or 1835 or 1720.
Those were the key points.”<<These were periods of Deppressions and deflation. Analysis of market cycles indicate that we are due for the next one around about now, and it may have already begun.
It’s all cycles…and please don’t shoot the messenger folks[fear]
So Bill
You are adding predicting the cycle of the opinionated forum to your bow now … let’s see how that turns out … still waiting for 90 cents!
Cheers
Leigh K[biggrin]wayne,
Inflation is again predicted to be within the target range of between 2%-3%. Last year, it was 3.2%. the year before that 3.4%. The only wild variation was after the implementation of the GST, when it was 6% a few years ago (2000-2001).
I believe inflation will be around 2.4% this year. We’ll have to wait a few months to see. But that’s hardly “deflation” banana republic style. And one can’t have it both ways. Inflation is not a good thing for consumers. Who wants rising prices and devalued purchasing power? Australia’s record growth can partly be attributed to inflation being managed, and remaining within its targets.
I get the feeling some folks want us to sell up our RE in a panic and buy shares instead?? Falling prices in RE is NOT a bad thing, if you’re a buyer. And most of us have made our CG in the boom, and now we want to buy again. RE investors are *always* wanting to buy- it’s what we do!
So why the sad faces, guys?
kay henry
Originally posted by kay henry:wayne,
Inflation is again predicted to be within the target range of between 2%-3%. Last year, it was 3.2%. the year before that 3.4%. The only wild variation was after the implementation of the GST, when it was 6% a few years ago (2000-2001).
I believe inflation will be around 2.4% this year. We’ll have to wait a few months to see. But that’s hardly “deflation” banana republic style. And one can’t have it both ways. Inflation is not a good thing for consumers. Who wants rising prices and devalued purchasing power? Australia’s record growth can partly be attributed to inflation being managed, and remaining within its targets.
I get the feeling some folks want us to sell up our RE in a panic and buy shares instead?? Falling prices in RE is NOT a bad thing, if you’re a buyer. And most of us have made our CG in the boom, and now we want to buy again. RE investors are *always* wanting to buy- it’s what we do!
So why the sad faces, guys?
kay henry
Kay,
People, economists included tend to make projections based on the immediate past. However, to get the real picture we must look further back. I won’t go into the psychological reasons for that. People like Robert Prechter explain it far better than I ever could.
But there is a observable cycle in the social mood, which includes such things as the stockmarket and real estate values….and music, politics,wars and lots of other things that goes back centuries…with fractal occurances within that cycle….and further fractal occurances within that smaller cycle and so on.
If you are aware of it, you can attempt to survive and prosper from it.
We have now had in excess of twenty years of continuous economic growth. The last slump was in the seventies, which was merely a fractal retracement of the overall cycle. But the sharemarket was a disaster and property values went sideways for a decade in a high inflation environment….substantially backwards in real terms.
The resilience of the boom is always a surprise to students of these cycles. The eventual bust is never a surprise.
I just think it is wise to be prepared for the eventual turn. The smarties who were aware of the cycle made a bloody fortune subsequent to the crash of ’29 and their fortune has sustained 3 generations with above average wealth since then.
Many people think it predatory to prosper at the expense of others misfortune. At least if I try to make people aware then my concience is clear.
This is why I give away information (that cost me a great deal to learn) for free via my website. Information that others charge for….errr, well, there’s not a lot there yet but I’m working on it.
Finally, yes I am banking on subsantially lower RE prices in the future. It doesn’t matter to me if that doesn’t come off in my relative youth (ummm a very young 42) to benefit from RE into my dotage ’cause the share market thing is doing OK fo me. But it would be nice to pick up some nice houses at the right price….when the market eventually tanks.
Actually, I know some pretty smart people who are not interested in RE OR shares. They are buying physical gold, silver and platinum with their ears pinned back! and stashing it in holes in the ground (I wish I knew exactly where[evil4])
It’s all food for thought.
Wayne,
I love doomsayers.
Personally I think you’re overlooking a number of events in your claims of thirty years of economic growth….1987 correction, DotCom crash, Asian crisis, 9/11 crash, South American crisis, etc.
Of course if you look at it across thirty years they all look like minor bumps in a constant upwards march….But so does the Great Depression if you look at the last 100 years.
Frankly it’s a matter of scale and definition.
Will there be a bust – um…what’s a bust?
Define what you mean by a bust & then we can have a real discussion
I know some very smart people too – none of them are stashing gold, silver or platinum in the ground…..but a number of whom are spreading their risk across a number of different asset classes.
Good luck waiting for those ‘substantially’ lower RE prices! (whatever you mean by substantial)
And remember – you should NEVER try to apply identical metrics to shares & property – you lose every time
Globally there are always ups and downs….the secret is in making sure you have good suspension
Cheers,
Aceyducey
Originally posted by Aceyducey:
I love doomsayers.It seems we have an instant rapport! I love naysayers too!
Personally I think you’re overlooking a number of events in your claims of thirty years of economic growth….1987 correction, DotCom crash, Asian crisis, 9/11 crash, South American crisis, etc.Yes, true! but if you will carefully note, I was speaking of a longer term cycle. But also note that I spoke of fractals, or patterns inside patterns. This is the scale of those points you raise. Significant, yet smaller in scale than the overall picture I am refering to.
Of course if you look at it across thirty years they all look like minor bumps in a constant upwards march….But so does the Great Depression if you look at the last 100 years.Frankly it’s a matter of scale and definition.
Yes, you have it with scale. Unfortunately the picture is somewhat distorted because people use an arithmetic scale when looking back over the last century.
You must look at a logarythmic(can’t remember how to spell that)scale to get a true picture. You will then see the significance of the ’29 event, and the lesser significance of the others.
Will there be a bust – um…what’s a bust?Define what you mean by a bust & then we can have a real discussion
Well, that IS a hard question. One that I will maintain an intentional vagueness about:) I have my ideas what it will be like but they are shere conjecture at this point.
I know some very smart people too – none of them are stashing gold, silver or platinum in the ground…..but a number of whom are spreading their risk across a number of different asset classes.I am personally not so bearish as to go to this extent either. But as far as I am concerned liquidity is King… Unless I see value that is just to good to knock back.
Good luck waiting for those ‘substantially’ lower RE prices! (whatever you mean by substantial)Thank you. But luck will not be required. Patience will. Substantially lower means that prices will represent value my my own measure, value that has been achievable immediately prior to this current boom,…similar value that is, not similar prices.
And remember – you should NEVER try to apply identical metrics to shares & property – you lose every timeEven though we have known each other for such a short time, you are a true friend. Thank you for this advise.
However I am approaching this from a different angle than you might imagine. The economic cycle is really a manifestation of social mood. We point to the stock market, mainly because it is so easily and accurately quantifyable. But we also track other things that are less easily quantifyable, including such things as Real estate, art, music/movies, politics, religion etc.
The social mood will effect different things at different times. These are all blunt mesures of mood, so the timing of peaks and troughs in the cycle is mainly guesswork. As I said in my post above, it may not happen for a while yet, but it may have already started. Nevertheless my plan is in place and is working satisfactorily.
That’s all I’m really trying to get across, is to have a contingency plan.
Globally there are always ups and downs….the secret is in making sure you have good suspensionYup! suspension tuned to the terrain[medieval]
Cheers,
Wayne
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